【作者】 赵辉；

【导师】 夏海勇；

【作者基本信息】 南京大学 ， 人口、资源与环境经济学， 2017， 硕士

【摘要】 人口老龄化是指人口生育率降低和人均寿命延长导致的总人口中年轻人口数量减少、老年人口比例增长的现象,对社会发展有着深远的影响。此外,老龄化加剧了社会的养老负担,对现行养老保障体系的发展完善提出了更高的要求。根据最新的人口普查结果,我国65岁及以上和60岁及以上人口占比分别为8.87%和13.26%,均已达到联合国对老龄化的界定。与发达国家不同的是,我国的老龄化有着未富先老、老龄人口基数大,发展速度快等特点,并且随着医疗水平和人均寿命的不断提高,高龄化趋势进一步加强。养老保险是社会保障体系里重要的环节,直接影响着老龄人口的晚年生活,以及社会的稳定,因此研究老龄化对养老保险支出水平的影响具有理论和现实意义。本文从我国老龄化现状以及养老保险制度的发展阶段为切入点,重点分析了老龄化水平(本文以老年抚养比衡量老龄化水平)对养老保险支出的影响,结果显示,老龄化水平与养老保险支出存在高度的正相关关系,同时在采用动态模型的基础上,发现养老保险支出水平的惯性较大。在分析了老龄化对养老保险支出水平的影响后,本文对未来人口规模及年龄结构进行了预测,结合老龄化水平对养老保险支出的影响分析,对短期未来的养老保险支出水平做了预测,结果表明,养老保险金的收支压力在老龄化程度加深的未来面临更大的挑战,到2020年,养老保险支出水平为4.34%,到2050年将达6.89%。本文试图解决的关键问题在于老龄化对养老保险支出水平的影响程度以及未来养老保险的支出测算,通过比较国外解决老龄化给养老带来诸多问题的应对策略,本文给出了如下的政策建议:第一、完善我国的退休政策,从延迟退休年龄和提高缴费年限两方面来提高老年人力资本的利用率以及退休后的福利待遇;第二、平衡城镇和农村的养老保险待遇水平,保障农村贫困人口的老年基本生活;第三、鼓励补充性养老保险的发展,以减轻政府压力;第四,增加养老基金的投资渠道,以实现基金的增值保值。更多还原

【Abstract】 The aging of the population as the population structure change phenomenon,on the economic and social development have a profound effect,on the one hand,the aging of the working age population decreased,shortage of labor,so as to promote industrial upgrading from labor-intensive to capital and technology intensive,on the other hand,aging aggravates the burden of social pension the development of the old-age security system,put forward higher requirements to improve.According to the results of the sixth census in 2010,China’s population aged 65 and above accounted for more than 8.87%,accounting for more than 60 years of age and population of more than 13.26%,according to the international definition of aging society,have entered the aging society.Different from western developed countries,the aging of our country is in the level of social economy is underdeveloped situation,there is not the old rich first,the aging population base,the features of fast development,and with the medical level and the continuous improvement of life expectancy,the aging trend further.Endowment insurance is an important part of the social security system,directly affects the life of the aging population,and the social stability,so the study of influence of aging on pension insurance expenditure level has theoretical and practical significance.This paper from the development status of China’s aging and pension insurance system as the breakthrough point,analyzes the influence on the level of aging,pension insurance expenditure shows that there is a positive correlation between the high level of aging and pension insurance expenditure at the same time,based on the dynamic model,found that the pension insurance expenditure level large inertia.In the analysis of the impact of aging on pension insurance expenditure level,this paper forecasted the future population size and age structure,analysis of the impact of pension expenditure level of aging based on short-term future pension insurance expenditure level is forecasted.The results show that the pension payment pressure in the aging degree the future will face more challenges.By 2020,the pension level is 4.34%,to 2050 will reach 6.89%.This paper solves the key problems in the aging degree of influence on pension expenditure level and future pension insurance expenditure estimates,through the comparison of foreign strategies in solving the aging brought many problems to the pension problem,this paper gives the following suggestions:first,perfecting the retirement policy,from the retirement age and improve two aspects to improve the rate of the payment period and post retirement benefits the elderly human capital;the level of pension benefits second,balance of urban and rural areas,protecting the rural poor elderly basic living;third,to encourage the development of supplementary pension insurance,in order to alleviate the pressure of the government;fourth,increase the pension fund investment channels,to achieve the fund’s value.更多还原