【作者】 高岩；

【导师】 王宇奇；

【作者基本信息】 哈尔滨理工大学 ， 工业工程， 2017， 硕士

【摘要】 石油是影响国民经济的重要战略性物资,是国家间关注的焦点,随着我国经济增长步伐的加大,石油需求的增长尤为突出。尽管中国正在进行经济结构转型,但我国仍然是世界最大能源消费国和净进口国,而中石化所进口的原油量约占我国进口原油量的七成,一旦中石化进口原油供应链受到巨大冲击,将严重威胁到我国的石油安全。恰恰中石化进口原油供应来源、运输路线大部分受到其他国家的制辖,风险极大,提升中石化进口原油供应链的弹性,降低扰动造成的损失,才能有效保障我国石油安全。为了更好地研究提升中石化进口原油供应链弹性的途径,本文从以下三部分展开。第一部分理论分析。首先分析中石化进口原油供应链结构与其运行现状,从中提炼出供应链所存在的问题,分析得出这些问题都是弹性不足的表现。并对中石化进口原油供应链系统环境进行分析,从中提炼会对供应链造成严重负面影响的干扰因素,对干扰因素会造成的扰动情形进行分析与总结。为后续仿真模型的建立与仿真实验提供理论依据。第二部分构建中石化进口原油供应链弹性仿真模型,并对设防库存、应急采购与备用路线三条策略进行仿真实验,揭示三条策略对弹性的影响。第三部分以适度弹性为目标,对中石化进口原油供应链弹性进行优化,得到最优方案,并提出弹性优化的策略建议。本文最终成果是借助仿真方法的动态性,建立中石化进口原油供应链弹性仿真模型,将扰动情形根植于仿真模型中,为中石化提升弹性提供实验依据。同时以适度弹性为优化目标,得出最优方案,为中石化提升弹性提供新的思路。更多还原

【Abstract】 Oil is one of strategic resources which has great effect to the national economy,and is the focus for all countries as well.With the everlasting bigger pace of economic growth in China,the growth of oil demand has been becoming particularly prominent.Although China is currently carrying on economic structure transformation,it is still the biggest energy consumption and net import country.Sinopec’s crude oil import accounts for over 70% of total crude oil import of China,once Sinopec’s import crude oil supply chain suffered a huge impact,it would cause a serious threat to the oil security of our country.Since the import crude oil sources and transport routes of Sinopec are mostly restricted by other countries,this leads to greater risk.Therefore,only if the resilience of Sinopec’s import crude oil supply chain be enhanced,can the loss caused by disruption be reduced,and can China’s oil security be guaranteed effectively.In order to study the route to enhance the resilience of Sinopec’s import crude oil supply chain,this dissertation carries out from the following three parts.Part one is theoretical analysis.Firstly,the supply chain structure and operation status of Sinopec import crude oil are analyzed,and the problems in supply chain are extracted.The analysis of these problems are lacking of resilience.The dissertation analyzes the environment of Sinopec import crude oil supply chain system,extracts the interference factors which will cause serious negative impact on supply chain,and analyzes and summarizes the disturbance caused by interference factors.It provides theoretical basis for the following simulation model and simulation experiment.The second part constructed the resilience simulation model of Sinopec import crude oil supply chain,and carries on three strategies including the simulation experiment to the defensive inventory,the emergency procurement and the standby route,revealed the influence of the three strategies on the resilience.The third part takes the moderate resilience as the goal,optimized the resilience of Sinopec’s import crude oil supply chain,get the optimal solution,and put forward the resilience optimization strategy suggestion.The final result of the dissertation is to establish the elastic simulation model of Sinopec’s import crude oil supply chain with the help of the dynamic simulation method,which is based on the simulation model.At the same time,taking the moderate resilience as the optimization target,the optimal solution is obtained,which provided a new way for Sinopec to enhance its resilience.更多还原