【作者】 李秀军；

【导师】 王新军；

【作者基本信息】 山东大学 ， 项目管理（专业学位）， 2016， 硕士

【摘要】 随着计划生育政策的贯彻执行,人口数量增速降低、人口老龄化水平加剧,人口红利的流失所带来的经济冲击,进一步加剧了本就不完善的养老保险制度与越来越多的养老金需求之间的矛盾。我国在1997年确定了养老保险制度改革的目标,将社会统筹和个人账户两种模式同时施行,统筹部分由领取年限决定,现收现付,为职工离休后生活提供保障；个人账户部分采取个人累计制,用以补充社会统筹部分的资金,个人继承。但是根据《中国养老金发展报告2014》,至2013年底,我国城镇的基本养老保险个人账户有2.9万亿,但空账比例却有86.2%,相应的个人账户实际金额只占据了十几个百分点。可以设想,如果没有良好的预警机制及相应的改革措施的出台,在不久以后,我国将很难解决养老金亏空所带来的一系列挑战,从而会引发政府诚信缺失,社会动荡等一系列并发问题,甚至会出现更严重的后果。在这样的背景下,如何解决日益增大的养老金缺口问题则成为了当前政府工作和学界研究的重中之重。本研究以此为出发点,考虑到不同人群人力资本差异及区域差异,结合我国养老金现状及延迟退休影响因素,综合西方国家先进经验,通过数据对延迟退休年龄对养老保险基金缺口的影响进行分析,建议适时调整养老保险制度,调整分配方式和延迟退休年龄。进而针对延迟退休政策,提出合理的完善措施,加速养老金合理运行及发展。本文首先整理了国内外相关文献,查阅相关数据,试图通过资料法对国际上已经出现的较为成熟的延迟退休做法进行深度分析,总结并借鉴其适合于我国特殊社会环境的相关经验；其次,根据养老金运行现状,对资金缺口产生原因及影响因素进行数学模型分析,用实证的方法证明延迟退休年龄对于养老金个人账户和基金统筹等养老金收支平衡方面的影响效应,进一步测算延迟退休年龄的相关性、合理性；再次,通过延迟退休的人口预测模型为基础,建立延迟退休对参保人数、退休人数及养老金基金缺口影响的仿真测算,利用往年数据和实际经验,测量延迟退休年龄下,养老金的收支平衡的改良情况；最后,以测算结果为标准,通过杜绝不合理的非正常退休、逐步实现男女同龄退休、建立符合国情的弹性退休策略、建立养老金缴费年限激励机制等有计划、分步骤的延迟退休年龄政策来调整延迟退休政策的落地方式,以期促进养老金收支平衡,为我国的社会保障事业尽一份微薄之力。更多还原

【Abstract】 With the family planning policy being carried out, the speed of population growth is reducing, population aging intensifies, Demographic dividend loss brought about by the economic shock, making the endowment insurance system not perfect and the contradiction between a growing number of pension demand further more aggravated. In 1997, China’s goal is to combine the society as a whole and individual account of the mode by identifying the endowment insurance system reform, the society part is decided by the number of year, partly as a whole pay-as-you-go, provide guarantee for the retires life of the worker; The part of the Individual account take individual cumulative system to society as a whole part of the capital, personal inheritance. But according to 《the China pension development report 2014》, by the end of 2013, account of individual of primary endowment insurance of our country town has 2.9 trillion, but the proportion of empty account is 86.2%, the actual corresponding only filled amount ten several percentage points. We can imagine, if we don’t have good early warning mechanism and the corresponding reform measures, in the near ten years later, our country will be difficult to solve a series of challenges brought by the pension shortfall, which will lead to reduce the government credibility, social unrest and a series of concurrency issues, which can also appear even more serious consequences. Therefore, under such prospects, how to solve the gap has been becoming into the top priority of the current work of the government and academic research.As the starting point of this study, considering the differences of the regional of human capital in different populations, combined with the current situation and the factors affecting delay retirement pension, integrated the advanced experience of western countries, the purpose is to strengthen the fund supervision and levying social security tax, transfer of state-owned assets to pension accounts, to adjust the old-age insurance system in time, adjust the allocation and delay the retirement age. As for the delay retirement policy, put forward the perfect measures of reasonable, accelerating pension reasonable operation and development, so as to our country’s social security cause some little of their own power.This paper first to sort out the related literature at home and abroad, access to relevant data, through material law of international has been a mature delay retirement practice in-depth analysis, summary and draw lessons from the special social environment suitable for our country related experience; Secondly, according to the situation of pension operation, causes and influencing factors of the funding gap analysis mathematical model, using empirical method to prove delay retirement age for pension funds as a whole and individual account annuities balance effect, further the relevance, rationality of measuring the delay retirement age; Again, through delay retirement population prediction model as the foundation, set up delay retirement impact on the number of ginseng, retirement and pension gap of simulation calculation, using the previous data and practical experience, measure the delay retirement age, the pension balance improved; Finally, on the basis of calculation results, through to eliminate unreasonable abnormal retirement, improving senior cadres and senior intellectuals in the retirement age, gradually achieve the man and women to retire at the same age, gradually achieve the men and women age retirement, establish conforms to the situation of flexible retirement policy, establishing pension capture expends fixed number of year incentive mechanism in a planned and step delay retirement age policy to adjust the delay retirement policy landing approach, in order to promote pension balance, for our country’s social security enterprise do some little of my own power.更多还原