【作者】 张伟；

【导师】 刘小玲； 孙传谆；

【作者基本信息】 华南农业大学 ， 土地资源管理， 2016， 硕士

【摘要】 随着经济的发展,碳排放不断增加,由此导致的温室效应不断加剧,使得全球温度不断上升,生态环境遭到严重破坏。其中煤、石油等能源的大量燃烧和不断变化的土地利用等人类活动是造成气候变暖的主要原因。为此,本文以中国经济发展典型城市—广州市为例,对土地利用碳排放进行计算并分析影响因素,以期为我国经济的低碳发展提出一些可行性的建议。首先,基于解译的广州市1994、2004及2014年遥感影像和《2006年IPCC国家温室气体清单指南》,结合不同土壤和植被的碳密度,计算出广州市土地利用碳排放总量并进行分析。结果表明:1994-2004年,广州市土地利用碳排放由1081.59万吨增加为1497.96万吨,增加了416.37万吨,比1994年增长了38.5%。2004-2014年,广州市土地利用碳排放从1497.96万吨增长为3310.47万吨,增加了1812.51万吨,比2004年增长了121%。广州市土地利用碳排放增加一方面是由于煤炭、石油、天然气等能源的大量燃烧;另一方面是由于森林的过度砍伐及城镇周边的耕地与草地大量转为建设用地,使得土地碳蓄积能力降低。然后,基于Kaya恒等式及LMDI分解模型对广州市土地利用碳排放的影响因素进行分析。结果表明:1994-2004年对土地利用碳排放起拉动作用的因素为区域经济发展水平、土地利用结构、区域人口规模;2004-2014年对土地利用碳排放起拉动作用的因素为土地利用结构、区域经济发展水平、区域人口规模。而土地利用效率因素则在1994-2014年间对广州市的土地利用碳排放起到了抑制作用。总体来看,土地利用碳排放影响因素对广州市土地利用碳排放的拉动作用大于抑制作用。最后,为协调好土地利用过程中区域经济、社会、生态的可持续发展,结合前部分的分析结果得出:广州市应该转变现有的经济发展方式,通过技术创新促进传统产业升级并提高能源利用率,减少能源消耗对环境的破坏;同时还要合理引导建设用地扩张,加强耕地、林地、草地、水域等的保护,通过建立长效保护机制减少土地的碳排放;最后还应结合政府的宏观调控能力,通过制定规划及法律法规体系,积极倡导低碳生活,提高公众参与度。通过这一系列的措施最终实现广州市的低碳发展。更多还原

【Abstract】 With the development of economy, carbon emissions continue to increase, leading to the greenhouse effect intensifying, made the global temperature rising, the ecological environment suffered severe damage. The burning of coal, oil and other energy and the changing of land use and other human activity is the main cause of global warming. In this paper, the typical economic development city in China- Guangzhou city as an example, the land use carbon emissions to calculate and analyze the influencing factors, so as to our country’s low carbon economic development put forward some feasible Suggestions.First of all, based on the interpretation of Guangzhou, 1994, 2004 and 2014 remote sensing image and《 The 2006 IPCC national greenhouse gas inventory guide》, combining carbon density of different soil and vegetation, land use carbon emissions in Guangzhou is calculated and analyzed. The results showed that: 1994-2004, Guangzhou land use carbon emissions increased from 10.8159 million tons to 10.8159 million tons, an increase of 4.1637 million tons, increased by 38.5% than in 1994. 2004-2014, Guangzhou land use carbon emissions are grown from 14.9796 million tons to 14.9796 million tons, an increase of 18.1251 million tons, increased by 121% than in 2004. Guangzhou land use carbon emissions increase on the one hand is due to energy such as coal, oil, natural gas is burning; On the other hand is due to a forest of deforestation in the surrounding of the cultivated land and a lot of lawn into construction land, land carbon accumulation capacity reduction.Then, based on Kaya identities and LMDI decomposition model for the influence factors of Guangzhou city land use carbon emissions were analyzed. The results show that the 1994-2004 of the pulling effect to the land use carbon emissions factors for regional economic development level, land use structure, regional population size; 2004-2014, pulling effect to the land use carbon emissions factors for land use structure, regional economic development level, regional population size. And the factors of land use efficiency from 1994 to 2014 in Guangzhou had inhibition effect of land use carbon emissions. Overall, land use carbon emissions factors for Guangzhou pull function of the land use carbon emissions is greater than the inhibition.Finally, for the good coordination of land use in the process of regional economic, social and ecological sustainable development, combined with the former part of the analysis results: Guangzhou should change the way of economic development, through technical innovation to promote the traditional industry to upgrade and improve energy efficiency, reduce energy consumption for the destruction of the environment; Reasonable to guide the construction land expansion at the same time, strengthen the protection of the cultivated land, forest land, grassland, water area, through the establishment of long-term protection mechanism to reduce carbon emissions of land; The last also should combine the government’s macroeconomic regulation and control ability, through planning and legal system, actively advocate low carbon life, improve the public participation. Through a series of measures to achieve low carbon development of Guangzhou.更多还原