【作者】 黄山；

【导师】 梁平；

【作者基本信息】 重庆大学 ， 产业经济学， 2016， 硕士

【副题名】基于1998-2012年中国29个省市面板数据的分析

【摘要】 人口老龄化问题已经成为当前中国热议的重要话题之一,延迟退休、“二孩政策”、社会保障制度改革等都是应对这一现象提出的策略。在中国经济进入新常态后,产业结构的调整与优化成为目前经济“调结构”、“促发展”的重要组成部分,而人口老龄化带来“人口红利”的消失将直接对产业结构的优化和升级产生重要影响。因此,从供给侧、需求侧、投资侧等多角度辩证的分析人口老龄化对产业结构优化的影响,将为我们准确认识人口老龄化现象和有针对性的提出促进产业结构优化的政策提供重要的基础。本文在深入分析人口老龄化与产业结构优化现状的基础上,结合目前国内外已有的研究成果和人口学、产业经济学基础理论知识,利用Hansen(1998)提出的门限方法设计和构建出本文的面板门限模型,以1998-2012年中国29个省市的面板数据来系统地分析人口老龄化对产业结构优化产生的门限效应。最终发现:(1)人口老龄化对产业结构优化存在显著的门限效应。在选择人均可支配收入作为代表经济发展和居民生活水平的门限变量下,人口老龄化对产业结构合理化及产业结构高级化均显著存在双重门限效应,即在不同的人均可支配收入区间下,人口老龄化对产业结构高级化和合理化将产生不同的影响。这就改变了以往研究中粗略的得出人口老龄化对产业结构优化影响非负即正的结论。(2)人口老龄化对产业结构高级化将产生正向影响,且作用将逐渐加强。当人均可支配收入迈过20649元时,人口老龄化对产业结构高级化的作用由负转正,当人均可支配收入迈过30886元时,人口老龄化对产业结构高级化的正向作用将逐渐加强。因此,进一步提升当前的人均可支配收入水平将是应对人口老龄化趋势的重要举措,将直接影响产业结构优化的效果。(3)人口老龄化对产业结构高级化的影响要优于产业结构合理化。作为衡量产业结构优化的两个重要维度,人口老龄化对产业结构高级化的作用要大于产业结构合理化,且在当前人均可支配收入现状下人口老龄化对产业结构高级化的影响显著性较高。因此,在人口老龄化背景下,在进行产业结构优化时应更加注重促进产业向着高级化方向发展。更多还原

【Abstract】 Rural residents The Aging Population has become China’s one of the most important topics nowadays. Postponed retirement, Two-child policy and the Reform of Social Security System all reflect this topic. After the Chinese economy going into the new normal, the readjustment of industrial structure becomes an essential part of “Adjusting structure”, and the disappearance of ”demographic bonus” will have a great impact on the optimization and upgrading of industrial structure. Therefore, analyzing the impact of Aging Population from the views of supply, demand and investment will help us learn about the phenomena of the aging better, thus giving us a vital foundation of putting forward some policies on the optimization of industrial structure.This paper is based on the analysis of the current aging population and optimization of industrial structure. By combining the existing literatures with theoretical knowledge of demography and industrial economic, this research takes advantage of Hansen’s(1998) Threshold Method to build the panel threshold model, where we using the data of China’s 29 provinces(from 1998 to 2012) to make out the threshold effect of aging population to the optimization of industrial structure. At last, this research finds that:(1)The Aging Population has a prominent threshold effect on the optimization of industrial structure. Taking “per capita disposable income” as threshold variable, Aging Population has remarkable effects both on the rationalization and the upgrading of the industrial structure. That means, in the different ranges of per capita disposable income, the former has different impacts on those two, which changes the existing rough conclusion of either positive or negative effects.(2)The Aging Population has a positive and enhanced effect on the optimization of industrial structure. When the per capita disposable income is over 20649 RMB, the effect of aging population on the optimization of industrial structure changes from the negative to the positive. When the per capita disposable income is over 30886 RMB, the positive effect will be strengthen. Therefore, enhancing the current per capita disposable income is an essential measure to response to the aging trend.(3)The Aging Population has a greater effect on the upgrading industrial structure than the rationalization of industrial structure. Thus, as two dimensions of the optimization of industrial structure, the government should pay more attention to promoting the development of upgrading of industrial structure.更多还原