【作者】 王慧；

【导师】 文海家； 王凯；

【作者基本信息】 重庆大学 ， 工程硕士（建筑与土木工程领域）（专业学位）， 2016， 硕士

【摘要】 地质灾害是众多自然灾害中的一个最主要的类型之一,在自然灾害中占据着非常重要的地位。地质灾害的发生会严重影响人类的生活,其对人们生活的影响和危害程度仅次于地震,是人类社会广泛遭遇、深受其害的自然灾害之一。近年来,我国的许多专家学者针对地区的地质灾害预警预报方面,采用不同的方法,进行了一些研究。一方面是通过对地区的地质灾害进行精密监测,另一方面是针对地区宏观的进行前兆预警,这两种方法均有成功的案例。然而对于区域性的地质灾害,尤其是山地的地质灾害,由于其地理位置较为复杂,对地质灾害的影响因素甚多,难以进行准确的预警预报。因此,针对山地地区的地质灾害预警预报工作的研究,目前为止,进展比较缓慢。本文选取典型山地区域重庆市城口县作为研究对象,首先进行地质灾害易发性区划研究,并在此基础上研究降雨型地质灾害的气象预报预警等级划分以及对应的有效降雨预警预报临界值,得到基于易发性区划与有效降雨量的山区地质灾害时空联合预警预报模型。主要研究工作及成果如下:(1)基于ARCGIS(地理信息系统),选取典型山地区域城口县作为研究对象,综合分析了山区地质灾害影响因子,较为全面的考虑了海拔高程、斜坡坡向、斜坡坡度、斜坡曲率、斜坡坡位、距水系距离、距断层距离、距道路距离、地层岩性、归一化植被指数(NDVI)、微地貌、有效降雨量、顺逆向坡共13个地质灾害影响因子。在ARCGIS平台下将这些因子分别专题图层栅格化,并提取为以研究区鱼网点属性数据来表达的地理空间数据库。(2)采用逻辑回归模型对研究区进行地质灾害易发性评价。利用R数值软件,选取适当样本构建研究区地质灾害易发性逻辑回归模型;利用逻辑回归模型对整个研究区的地理空间数据进行仿真计算,得到研究区地质灾害易发性区划评价结果。(3)建立有效降雨量模型,并在地质灾害易发性研究区划的基础上,研究降雨型地质灾害的气象预报预警等级划分以及对应的有效降雨预警预报临界值,得到基于易发性区划与有效降雨量的山区地质灾害时空联合预警预报模型。(4)选取重庆城口县周溪乡大榜村谢家湾滑坡和重庆巫山县红岩子滑坡两个具体的实例来对该模型进行分析验证。结果表明,该模型具有较高的可行性和较好的预警预报准确性。本文依托“十二五”国家科技支撑计划课题《村镇区域空间规划与土地利用优化技术集成规范》(2012BAJ22B06),对山区地质灾害易发性区划与降雨诱发时空联合预报展开研究。本研究对山区地质灾害的预测预报研究具有一定的理论意义和实用价值。更多还原

【Abstract】 Geological hazard is one of the main types of natural disasters.It has a very important position in the natural disasters. The occurrence of geological hazard will seriously affect human life, and it will harm to people’s life even. Geological hazard is widely exists in people’s life, and the harm from geological hazard just behind the earthquake.In recent years, many experts and scholars in our country use different methods to do the research in regional geological hazard warning forecast. On the one hand, they monitore the regional geological hazards precisionly, on the other hand, they make macroscopic precursory warning aim at regions.There are lots of successful cases in the two methods. However, it is hard to warn and forecast some geological hazards, especially the mountainous geological hazards. Because the geographical positions are so complicated, and there are many factors influence on geological hazards. Therefore, the research progress of the mountainous geological hazards warning and forecast is slow so far.This dissertation select typical mountainous area Chengkou county in Chongqing for the research. Firstly, to have a study on geological hazard susceptibility mapping, then do some research on rainfall-induced geological hazards meteorological forecast and early warning grading, and effective rainfall forecast and warning critical value on this basis. And to build the intergrating time and space meteorological forecast based on mountain geological hazard zoning and rainfall-induced model at last. The main research work and results are as follows:(1)Selecting typical mountainous area Chengkou county in Chongqing for the research on the basis of ARCGIS. Considering height, slope direction, slope gradient, slope curvature,slope position, distance from water system, distance from faults, distance from highways, formation lithology, NDVI, micro-topography,effective rainfall, dip and escarpment slope(13 factors in total) are chosen as the impact factors. Afterwards these factors are rasterized in special graph layers, and further on platform of ARCGIS, they are presented as geospatial data by extraction of fishnet attribute data in the research area.(2)To make a evaluation on geological hazards susceptibility in the study area, using logistic regression model. The geological hazards susceptibility logic regression model is set up through R software. Then all the geospatial data is handled in next process of simulation calculation, and the results of geological hazards evaluation in the study area is achieved.(3)The effective rainfall model is established. Then make a research on meteorological forecast of geological hazards in the warning levels and the corresponding critical value of rainfall warning forecast. And then building the intergrating time and space meteorological forecast based on mountain geological hazard zoning and rainfall-induced model.(4)Select two concrete examples to analyze and verify the model:Xie jiawan, dabang village, zhouxi town, Chengkou,Chongqing landslide and Hong yanzi, Wushan, Chongqing landslide. The results show that, this model has high feasibility and warning forecast accuracy.This dissertation makes the research on intergrating time and space meteorological forcast based on mountain geological hazard zoning and rainfall-induced, by relying on“twelfth five-year” national science and technology support plan《rural regional spatial planning and land use optimization technology integration specification 》(2012BAJ22B06). The study may provide reference for mountain geological hazards forcast and warning research.更多还原