【作者】 郭亮；

【导师】 肖海翔；

【作者基本信息】 湖南大学 ， 应用经济学， 2015， 硕士

【摘要】 随着消费对经济发展拉动作用的日益凸显,学者们开始从不同视角对其进行研究,政府财政支出与居民消费关系的探讨就是其中之一。政府财政支出类目众多,公共文化体育与传媒支出是其中的一部分。从理论上分析,政府文化体育与传媒支出会通过居民收入水平、消费心理和政策环境等途径影响到居民家庭人均消费支出,并产生挤出效应或挤入效应。本文利用我国2007-2013年间31个省级行政区的面板数据,分别从城镇居民和农村居民视角构建了两个不同的面板检验模型,以检验政府文化体育与传媒支出与城乡居民消费之间的变动关系。检验结果发现：在对城镇居民消费的影响上,政府文化体育与传媒支出对城镇居民家庭人均现金消费支出具有一定挤入效应,但对文教娱乐服务消费具有一定挤出效应；人均地区生产总值与城镇居民人均可支配收入对城镇居民消费具有正向影响；少年儿童抚养比与老年人口抚养比的影响并不显著。在对农村居民消费的影响上,政府文化体育与传媒支出对农村居民家庭平均每人消费支出以及文教娱乐服务消费均存在一定挤出效应；人均地区生产总值和农村居民家庭人均纯收入对农村居民消费同样具有正向影响；少年儿童抚养比倾向于推动农村居民消费的增长,老年人口抚养比却倾向于抑制农村居民消费的增长。为了更好地发挥政府文化体育与传媒支出效应,有效刺激居民消费增长,进而推动经济社会发展,本文提出如下政策建议：第一,有效提高政府文化体育与传媒支出偏好；第二,出台文化体育与传媒支出相关的配套政策与制度；第三,文化体育与传媒支出偏好应因城乡差异而有所不同；第四,构建文化体育与传媒支出的信息传递与共享平台。更多还原

【Abstract】 Scholars began to study consumption from a different perspective under the influence of the growing economic development function from consumption. One of them was the discussion of relations between government spending and consumption. Government culture and sports and media was part of the government fiscal spending, which would theoretically affect the residents’ consumer spending per capita through the residents’ income level and consumption psychology and the policy environment, and those results would be crowding out or into effect. In order to empirically test the relationship between government expenditure of culture and sports and media and the change of urban and rural residents’ consumption, the paper builded two different panel models from the perspective of urban and rural residents, based on our country panel data of 31 provincial level administrative region during 2007-2013.Test results are as follows. On the impact on urban residents’ consumption, government culture and sports and media expenditure crowded into certain effect on the per capita consumption expenditure of urban households, but crowded out on cultural and educational entertainment service consumption. Per capita GDP and urban per capita disposable income has a positive influence of urban residents’ consumption, but the influence of children’s dependency ratio and aging population bring-up ratio is not significant. On the impact on rural residents’ consumption, government culture and sports and media expenditure crowded out per capita consumption expenditure and cultural and educational entertainment service consumption of rural residents family. Per capita GDP and per capita net income of rural households had positive influence on rural residents’ consumption, and the dependency ratio in children and adolescents tended to promote the growth of the rural residents’ consumption, and aging population bring-up ratio tended to inhibit the growth of the rural residents’ consumption.In order that the government culture and sports and media spending could have a better effect, whicn could effectively stimulate consumer spending growth, and promote economic and social development, this paper puts forward the following Suggestions. First, the spending preferences of government culture and sports and media should be effectively improved. Second, supporting policy and system of culture and sports media spending should be issued. Third, the preferences should be different due to the regional differences. Fourth, the information transfer and sharing platform of cultural and sports and media spending should be built.更多还原