【作者】 张丹丹；

【导师】 文嫮； 易军；

【作者基本信息】 湖南大学 ， 国际商务硕士（专业学位）， 2016， 硕士

【摘要】 随着高速铁路在世界范围内的建设规划,其所带来的显著经济影响越来越受到各界的关注。十多年来,中国高铁迅猛发展,但由于城市经济发展水平参差,所处的地理位置也不同,高铁的开通对不同发展水平的沿线城市和区域的影响可能并不相同。基于此种背景,本文运用灰色预测的方法进行有无对比分析,定量分析中国开通最早的郑西、武广两条高铁线路对其沿线站点城市经济发展产生的影响以及影响程度,选取的主要指标为可达性、人均GDP、产业结构以及城市化率,以期更清楚地认识高铁对于沿线站点城市发展的意义。结果表明：(1)郑西、武广高铁的开通,使沿线22个城市的加权平均旅行时间指标值都有所下降,即可达性水平均有所提高,泪罗、耒阳、清远的变化尤为明显；沿线城市的交通发展不平衡状况有所缓解。相比郑西高铁而言,武广高铁的开通对沿线城市可达性水平的影响更为显著,这与武广高铁的运营速度较高有关；由于武广高铁总长大于郑西高铁,武广高铁沿线城市的加权平均旅行时间指标值的平均值也高于郑西高铁。(2)回归分析显示郑西和武广高铁对沿线站点城市人均GDP有着正向的显著影响,而灰色预测结果则显示高铁开通后的人均GDP实际值低于无高铁的预测值。这可能与2009年之后中国经济整体下行以及灰色预测所采用的数据有关。此外,其对区域经济增长的长期效应还有待时日检验。(3)郑西、武广高铁的运行带动了大部分沿线城市第三产业的发展,提高了第三产业的比重,在促进区域产业结构升级和现代化发展方面起到了极其重要的作用,但对不同层级的城市影响程度、路径不同,规模大、实力强的城市获得的机会较多,小城市则暂时相对较少。与郑西高铁相比,武广高铁对沿线城市产业结构的影响较大,原因在于武广高铁沿线城市产业结构基础较好,且连接了珠三角区域后,沿海经济产业内陆化；而郑西高铁沿线城市皆为内陆城市,基础也相对较弱。(4)郑西、武广高铁的开通促进了沿线站点城市城市化率的提高。其中,武广高铁对城市化率的影响高于郑西高铁,这与开通高铁前,武广高铁沿线城市的平均城市化率低于郑西高铁、可提升空间较大有关。且两者对各自沿线城市的城市化率影响趋势不同,郑西高铁对不同城市城市化率影响的差异性增大,而武广高铁的指标值则向均值集中。最后,本文对沿线区域应该采取何种策略和措施提出相应的建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 Along with the high-speed rail in the world’s planning and construction, a significant economic impact they bringing attracts more and more attention of scholars. For more than ten years, high-speed rail in China developed rapidly. Due to the level of urban economic development varies, the geographical position is also different, the impact of high-speed rail along the city and the region may not be the same. Based on this background, this paper uses grey prediction method with and without comparative analysis, quantitative analysis the impact of the Zhengzhou-Xi’an, Wuhan-Guangzhou high-speed rails on the urban economic development along the site and the influence degree. The main indicators are accessibility, per capita GDP, industrial structure and urbanization rate, in favor of a clearer understanding of high-speed rail along the site for urban development significance. The results showed that:(1)The opening of the Zhengzhou-Xi’an and Wuhan-Guangzhou high speed rail make the weighted average travel time index of the 22 cities dropped, it means accessibility levels are improved, especially in Miluo^ Leiyang and Qingyuan, and urban transportation development imbalance has eased. The influence of Wuhan-Guangzhou high-speed rail on urban accessibility is significantly higher than that of Zhengzhou-Xi’an high-speed rail, because the operating speed of Wuhan-Guangzhou high-speed rail is slightly quicker than Zhengzhou-Xi’an high-speed rail. Since the Wuhan-Guangzhou high-speed rail length is more than Zhengzhou-Xi’an high-speed rail, weighted average travel time index values of the cities along Wuhan-Guangzhou high-speed rail are higher than Zhengzhou-Xi’an high-speed rail. (2) Regression analysis showed that Zhengzhou-Xi’an and Wuhan-Guangzhou high-speed rails have a positive significant impact on the per capita GDP, while the gray prediction results show that the actual value of the per capita GDP after the opening of high-speed rails is lower than the predicted value of no high-speed rail. This may be related to the downlink of China’s economy after 2009 and the data of grey prediction. In addition, its long-term effect on regional economic growth remains to be further verified. (3)High-speed rail led to the development of the third industries along the most of the cities, increased the proportion of the third industry, has played an extremely important role in promoting the upgrading of regional industrial structure and the development of modernization, but paths are different on different levels of cities. Large and powerful cities have more opportunities, and small cities may be less for the time being. Compared with the Zhengzhou-Xi’an high-speed rail, Wuhan-Guangzhou high-speed rail has a bigger influence on city’s industrial structure, because the city industrial structure along the Wuhan-Guangzhou high-speed rail foundation is good, and coastal economy industry spread to the interior after connecting the Pearl River Delta region. While cities along Zhengzhou-Xi’an high-speed rail are inland cities, the foundation is relatively weak. (4)High-speed rail has accelerated the improvement of urbanization rate of the cities. The impact on urbanization rate of Wuhan-Guangzhou high-speed rail is higher than the Zhengzhou-Xi’an high-speed rail, this is because when there was no high-speed rail, the average urbanization rate of cities along Wuhan-Guangzhou high-speed rail is lower than that of Zhengzhou-Xi’an high-speed rail, so can improve greatly.But the trend of the influence of the two high-speed railways on urbanization rate is different.The difference of the influence of the Zhengzhou-Xi’an high-speed rail on the urbanization rate of different cities increases, while the index value of Wuhan Guangzhou high-speed rail is concentrated to the mean value. Finally, suggestions are made on what strategies and measures should be taken for the region along the high-speed railway.更多还原