【作者】 陈伟；

【导师】 高力；

【作者基本信息】 云南大学 ， 行政管理， 2016， 硕士

【摘要】 间断—均衡理论起源于西方,是专门研究突变式政策变迁的主流理论,自20世纪70年代以来被广泛运用于多数国家的具体公共政策变迁过程研究。该理论既关注长期的渐进政策变迁过程,同时也解释长期稳定和连续的政策变迁过程中发生的政策间断现象,为政策变迁研究提供了崭新的分析框架。基于此,本文以间断—均衡理论为理论工具,以中央“一号文件”农业政策变迁为研究样本,在对间断—均衡理论和中央“一号文件”进行概述后,从宏观和微观两个层面出发,对中央“一号文件”农业政策的间断一均衡变迁进行了透视。在宏观层面,中央“一号文件”农业政策变迁呈现出“政策均衡(1982—1986)—政策中断(1987—2003)—新政策均衡(2004—2015)"的演进逻辑。同时,运用间断—均衡理论的核心要素对中央“一号文件"农业政策的间断—均衡变迁进行了解释；在微观层面,运用政策文献量化研究方法,通过高频主题词提取、建立主题类目、统计类目词频以及分析类目随时间变化情况等方式对1982—1986年以及2004--2015年两个阶段的十七份中央“一号文件"政策文献进行了计量分析。最后,基于上述分析,本文分别从理论层面的间断—均衡理论和实践层面的“三农”问题解决提出了几点启示。在间断—均衡理论的启示方面：通过研究,本文认为,间断—均衡理论对中央“一号文件"农业政策变迁具有较强的解释力,但也存在自身的解释限度。同时,研究发现,中央“一号文件”农业政策间断一均衡变迁受群众路线、换届整合、共识决策、政策仪式、规划锁定五个特殊要素的影响。因此,需要基于我国政策实践,结合驱动中央“一号文件”农业政策间断—均衡变迁的五个特殊要素,对间断—均衡理论框架进行拓展与修正,从而为我国政策变迁提供更为精准有效的分析框架；在“三农”问题解决的启示方面：中央“一号文件”不仅要继续以“三农”问题为主题,保持政策的连续性,还要释放政策红利,避免符号化为一个象征性公共政策。还有,中央“一号文件”要主动适应经济新常态,做好政策要点的中断与均衡以及要在政策制定中强化智库作用,推动政府科学决策。更多还原

【Abstract】 Punctuated equilibrium theory, originated form the West, is a mainstream theory about the studies of abrupt changes of policy. It is widely applied to the process study of specific public policy transition process in most countries. The theory not only centers on long-term policy of gradual change process, but also explains the policy discontinuities that happen in long-term stability and continuous policy change process. It provides a new analytical framework for research on policy change. Based on intermittent-equilibrium theory, this paper takes agricultural policy changes that represented in the central government’s "No.1 Document" as a study sample. After an overview of Punctuated equilibrium theory and the central government’s "No.l Document", this paper will analyze Intermittent-Equilibrium Changes of the agricultural policy in "No.l Document" from both macro and micro angles. At the macro level, the "No.l Document" agricultural policy represent the evolution, that is "balanced policy (1982-1986)-interrupt policy(1987-2003)-the new policy equilibrium (2004-2015). At the same time, it explains the "No.l Document" agricultural policy by punctuated equilibrium theory. At the micro level, policy document quantitative research methods are used to econometric analyzes the central "No.l Document" in two periods of the past years, from 1982 to 1986 and from 2004 to 2015, by extracting high frequency keywords, building subject category, statistics category and the changes of category analysis with the time changes. Based on the analysis above, this paper puts forward a few recommendations in accordance with theoretical discontinuity-equilibrium theory and practice concerning the "three rural" issues.In the aspects of punctuated equilibrium theory:this paper concludes that punctuated equilibrium theory strongly accounts for the "No.1 Document" agricultural policy changes, and there are limitations in explanation on the other hand. At the same time, Central "Document" intermittent agricultural policy-Equilibrium Changes have a lot to do with the five special features-mass-oriented policy, governing integration, consensus decision-making, policy ceremony and planning. Therefore, based on our country’s policy, practice and five special features which driven central "Document" agricultural policy discontinuity-Equilibrium Changes, it is necessary to extend the intermittent-equilibrium framework, so as to provide a more accurate and effective framework for the analysis of Policy Changes. In the aspect of Revelation "three rural" issues:"No.1 Document" needs to continuously hold up "Three Rural Issues", and also release policy bonus in case of becoming an empty policy. And also, central "No.1 Document" needs to conform with the new economic normality initiatively, making itself do a great job in the balance of policy at the right time and in strengthening the role in policy-making so as to help Government make scientific decisions.更多还原