【作者】 马燕；

【导师】 虞斌；

【作者基本信息】 东南大学 ， 金融学， 2016， 硕士

【摘要】 内需不足一直是我国经济体制改革和实现可持续发展的严重阻碍,而我国扩大内需的巨大潜力在广大农村地区。信贷是农村居民扩大消费的有效途径,然而由于逆向选择和道德风险的存在,信贷投入的提高是否真正发挥了作用还有待探讨,从理论和实证的角度检验我国农村信贷对农村居民消费的影响效应和影响路径是非常有必要的。本文以消费函数理论为基础,从全国和区域两个视角分析农村信贷对农村居民消费水平的影响。从全国视角,选用1979-2013年的时间序列数据,基于三个状态空间模型,研究农村信贷对农村居民消费水平的影响效应、主要传导路径以及影响系数的变动趋势。从区域视角,选用1999-2013年省级面板数据,基于三个面板方程,根据固定效应模型和随机消费模型估计方法,估计东、中、西部不同地区农村信贷对居民消费水平的影响作用和作用路径,并比较区域间的差异。最后,根据灰色关联分析理论,计算了信贷与农村居民消费结构之间的灰色关联系数与灰色关联度,分析信贷对农村居民消费结构升级的作用。根据实证结果,本文得到以下结论：(1)从全国视角看,农村信贷对农村居民消费支出具有显著的正向影响,影响路径主要是通过收入这一中间变量进而间接影响消费支出。(2)从区域视角看,各区域农村信贷都对居民消费具有显著的促进作用,但区域间差异性显著,东部地区消费的信贷弹性最小,西部地区次之,中部地区最高。(3)农村居民信贷水平与居民消费结构之间具有紧密联系,信贷水平的提高能够推动农村居民消费结构升级。(4)收入是影响农村居民消费水平和消费结构的重要因素。对于以上结果出现的原因,本文从农村居民的消费理念,金融知识水平,低收入群体的信贷约束以及收入构成等方面进行了分析。基于本文的实证结论,本文提出以下政策建议：(1)加快农村金融市场建设,增加农村地区的信贷供给。(2)大力发展农村金融教育,提高农村居民金融知识水平。(3)提升农村居民人均纯收入,刺激居民消费支出。(4)完善农村地区社会保障制度,加强政府教育支出支持。更多还原

【Abstract】 Insufficient domestic demand has always been a serious impediment for China’s reform of economic system and economic sustainable development. In China, the greatest potential to expand domestic demand is in the rural areas. Credit is an effective way for rural residents to increase their consumption. However, because of adverse selection and moral hazard, we have no idea about whether rural credit has played its role. Therefore, it is necessary to verify whether rural credit impacts on rural residents’consumption and how does it work.Based on consumptive function theory, The influence of credit on residents’ consumption level in rural areas has been analyzed from both national and regional perspective. From the national perspective, Three state space models are adopted to study the influence and transmitting mechanism together with influence’s fluctuant trend of credit on residents’consumption in rural areas using national yearly data from 1979 to 2013. From the regional perspective, based on provincial yearly panel from 1999 to 2013, three panel models are used to do the empirical study. Fixed-effect and random-effect models are both used to estimate the equation. The empirical results show the differences of rural credit’s impact on rural residents’consumption among eastern, central and western China. The last, in order to examine the credit’s effect on residents’consumption structure, grey relational coefficient and grey correlation have been calculated based on the theory of grey correlation analysis.Based on the empirical results, main conclusions are as follows. Firstly, taking the nation as a whole, rural credit has a positive effect on rural resident’s consumption expenditure. The main path it works is by the intermediate variable income to promote the consumption in an indirect way. Secondly, the empirical results gained from regional perspective confirm the former results. But in different region, the credit elasticity of consumption is different. Eastern China has the smallest elasticity and central China has the largest one. Western China comes in the middle. Thirdly, consumption structure in rural areas can also be affected by the rural credit. More loans bring higher level of consumption structure. Finally, Income always exerts a positive impact on consumption expenditure and structure. Based on relevant analysis, several factors are contributing to the empirical results:rural residents’concept of consumption and financial knowledge, credit constraints of low income groups, the composition of rural residents’income and so on.Consequently, following suggestions are put forward. Firstly, to speed up the construction of rural financial market and to increase the supply of credit; Secondly, to develop the financial education in rural areas and to improve rural residents’level of financial literacy; Thirdly, to increase rural residents’income and to promote their consumption; Last but not least, to improve the social security system in rural areas and to strengthen government support for education spending.更多还原