【作者】 李芳；

【导师】 程桂荣；

【作者基本信息】 河北经贸大学 ， 数量经济学， 2016， 硕士

【摘要】 在2014年随着京津冀协同发展上升为国家战略,京津冀区域的协调发展得到多方的重视,京津冀协同发展纲要明确指出缩小地区差距、调整经济结构和空间结构,走出一条内涵集约发展的新路子,促进区域协同发展,形成新增长极。而河北省的整体发展状况与北京、天津这两大增长极具有很大的差距,是京津冀协同发展的瓶颈。增长极理论在我国得到了广泛运用,长三角、珠三角、环渤海三大增长极带动了我国东部经济的快速起飞。本文以区域增长极理论为基础,对京津冀区域经济的互动影响进行实证研究,分析了构建新增长极城市的选择及其可能性,并分析了该增长极在京津冀一体化过程中的作用。本文通过对京津冀区域的发展现状的研究分析了京津冀一体化中培育区域增长极的基础;实证研究中利用探索性数据分析及实证性数据分析来建立模型。在探索性数据分析中,首先通过箱形图分析、全局及局部莫兰指数对京津冀区域城市的空间分布形态进行初步探索。结果显示北京、天津在生产方面在一定程度上带动了周边城市的发展,表现出一定的扩散效应,全局莫兰指数为正相关;而在收入方面北京、天津这两大增长极对周边城市的辐射作用并不明显,全局莫兰指数为负相关,且负作用表现出逐渐增强趋势;在河北省内部,冀南冀北区域城市差距过大,河北省在生产、生活指标的高值多分布在冀北地区,且近几年差异呈扩大趋势。在冀南区域中,生产方面仅石家庄为高值—低值型,其他南部城市均为低值—低值区域,且仅石家庄是两项指标均处于平均水平之上。为了进一步揭示京津冀区域的相互作用机制及作用大小,选择潜在新增长极,需要在探索性数据分析上进一步进行实证性数据分析。实证分析结果表明,在区域的时间效应中,区域间相互的正向作用呈下降趋势,空间效应中唐山、秦皇岛、天津、沧州、石家庄这5个城市的空间效应为正值,即存在空间补充效应。在冀南城市中,石家庄对区域的带动作用最强,石家庄的发展有利于带动整个京津冀区域的发展,并能促进京津冀一体化的进程。因此,结合京津冀区域经济发展的状况,本文认为可以培育石家庄成为河北省的新增长极,率先发展石家庄来带动京津冀整个区域的快速发展,推进一体化进程。由此,本文从地理位置优势、经济优势、产业优势、科技创新优势方面分析了石家庄成为新增长极的现实可能性,并提出了促进石家庄成为新增长极的政策建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 In 2014 with the Beijing Tianjin Hebei joint development as a national strategy,coordinated development of Beijing Tianjin Hebei region has got much attention,Beijing,Tianjin collaborative development program clearly pointed out that narrow the regional gap,adjust the economic structure and spatial structure, out of a new way of intensive development of connotation, promoting regional coordinated development to form a new growth pole.while there is a large gap between hebei province ande beijing,this is a bottleneck of collaborative development of Beijing Tianjin hebei.The pole theory has been widely used in China, the Yangtze River Delta, the Pearl River Delta, Bohai, China’s three largest growth pole led to the rapid take-off of the eastern part of China’s economy.Based on the regional growth pole theory, this paper makes an empirical study on the interaction between Beijing, Tianjin and regional economy,and analyzed the selection and the possibility of constructing the new growth pole city,analyzed he function of the growth pole in the integration of Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei.Based on the research and analysis of the current situation of Beijing, Tianjin and the integration of Beijing, Tianjin and the integration of the cultivation of regional growth pole foundation.In the empirical study,exploratory data analysis and empirical data analysis are used to establish the model.In exploratory data analysis, firstly through the preliminary exploration of box plot analysis,global and local Moran index of Beijing Tianjin Hebei regional city spatial distribution.The results showed that Tianjin and Beijing in the production to a certain extent led to the development of the surrounding cities,Show a certain diffusion effect, and the global index is positively correlated.In terms of income,the two growth poles on the surrounding cities of radiation is not obvious,the global index was negatively correlated, and the negative effect showed a gradual increasing trend.Within Hebei Province, the gap between the north and the south is too large.In Hebei Province, the high value of production and living standards is in the northern region, and the gap in recent years showed an increasing trend.In the south region, only Shijiazhuang is a high value low value type,The other southern cities are all low value low value regions, and only Shijiazhuang is the average of the two indicators.In order to further reveal the interaction mechanism and the role of Beijing Tianjin Hebei region and choice the potential new growth pole,we need to further empirical data analysis on exploratory data analysis.The result of empirical analysis shows that in the time effect of the region, the positive effect of the region is decreased.Include Tangshan, Qinhuangdao,Tianjin,Cangzhou, Shijiazhuang, the 5 city space effect is positive, there is space to add effect.In the southern city of Hebei, shijiazhuang had the strongest effect on the region.Shijiazhuang’s development is conducive to promote the development of Beijing Tianjin Hebei region, and can promote the process of integration of Beijing Tianjin hebei.Therefore, combined with the regional economic development of the area, it can cultivate Shijiazhuang in Hebei province has become a new growth pole.Take the lead in the development of Shijiazhuang to promote the rapid development of Beijing, Tianjin and the entire region, and promote the integration process.Therefore, this article from the geographical location and economic advantages, industry advantages, advantages of technological innovation of the reality of Shijiazhuang become a new growth pole.And put forward policy suggestions to promote Shijiazhuang to become a new growth pole.更多还原