【作者】 张志强；

【导师】 粟晓玲；

【作者基本信息】 西北农林科技大学 ， 水利工程（专业学位）， 2016， 硕士

【摘要】 泾惠渠灌区作为陕西省的大型灌区,为陕西经济的发展作出了巨大的贡献。清晰的认识灌区现在及未来供需水平衡状况,降低灌区供水风险是实现灌区水资源可持续利用必不可少的工作。本文以泾惠渠灌区为研究区,分别以2010年和2020年为现状和规划水平年,采用定额法对灌区生活工业需水量及50%和75%水文年的灌溉需水量进行预测并进行供需平衡分析。基于风险理论,构建了灌区供水风险评价指标体系,采用层次分析法和熵权法构建供水风险综合评价模型,获得农业用水户规划年不同来水频率的供水风险综合评价值,进行供水风险分析,并提出降低研究区供水风险的对策,研究的主要内容和结果如下:(1)预测灌区需水量,并进行供需水平衡分析:2020年与2010年相比,灌区灌溉需水量减少,占总需水量的比例下降了7%左右;生活工业需水量均增加,占总需水量的比例分别增加了1.6%、5%左右。灌区现状和规划水平年在50%保证率均不缺水;在75%保证率分别缺水7020.27万m3、5800.97万m3,缺水率分别为11.08%、9.75%。(2)根据供水风险指标选取原则,选取可靠性、协调性、弹性、脆弱性、日最大缺水率5个指标构建灌区供水风险评价指标体系;采用层次分析法和熵权法,构建主客观权重相结合的灌区供水风险综合评价模型。(3)泾惠渠灌区供水风险指标计算结果表明,可靠性指标在79.78%~97.54%之间,均值为93.80%,可靠性高;协调性指标在46.74%~84.89%之间,均值为67.86%,协调性较高;弹性指标在4.05%~16.67%之间,均值为9.05%,弹性低;脆弱性指标在0.37%~0.83%之间,均值为0.55%,脆弱性低;日最大缺水率指标在28.30%~93.10%之间,均值为65.61%,日最大缺水率较高;(4)泾惠渠灌区供水风险分析结果表明,随着来水频率增加,灌区农业用水户供水风险综合评价值总体呈递增趋势,最大为72.82%,属不可接受风险;最小为15.39%,属可忽略风险,极值比为4.73,变化幅度很大。丰水年、平水年、枯水年份供水风险均值分别为34.79%、42.06%、56.83%,丰水年属可接受风险,主要受径流年内分配影响;平水年和枯水年属边缘风险,主要受年径流量及其年内分布影响;特枯年份,受径流年内分布影响很小。(5)提出降低泾惠渠灌区供水风险的对策:修建引流、蓄水设施对灌区自产径流加以应用;开展灌区水利工程设施续建配套改造;新建水源工程并对已建水库扩容;普及节水灌溉;建立科学合理的水价体系。更多还原

【Abstract】 Jinghuiqu Irrigation District has made a great contribution to the economic development of Shanxi, witch is a large irrigation district in Shaanxi Province. Understanding the current and future situation of supply and demand of water supply and demand and reducing the risk of water supply are essential works to achieve the sustainable use of water resources in irrigation districts.This paper takes Jinghuiqu Irrigation District as the study area and selects 2010 and 2020 as status and planning programming year respectively, then uses the quota method to predict its water demand of living, industrial and agricultural under two guarantee rates(50% and 75%) and conducts analysis of supply and demand level balance, and constructs the risk assessment index system of water supply in irrigation districts based on risk theory, next constructs comprehensive evaluation model of water supply risk by using analytic hierarchy process and entropy weight method, then Gets the agricultural water users’ planning programming year’s supply risk comprehensive evaluation value in different inflow frequency and then conducts analysis of water supply risk, also puts forward some countermeasures to reduce the risk of water supply. The main research contents and results are as follows:(1) Predicting irrigate area’s water demand and conducting analysis of water supply and demand balance: 2020 compared with 2010, irrigation water demand is decreasing, its number in total water demand is falling by about 7%, living and industrial water demand are both increasing, their number in total water demand are increasing about 1.6% and 5% respectively.Status and planning programming year of irrigation area are not water shortage under 50% guarantee rate. Water shortages and water shortage ratio are 7020.27 million m3、5800.97 million m3 and 11.08%、9.75% respectively under 75% guarantee rate.(2) Selecting reliability, coordination, recovery, vulnerability, daily maximum water shortage index constructs evaluation index system of water supply risk in irrigation districts according to the water supply risk index selection principle; Water supply risk assessment model witch bases on the combination of subjective and objective weights is constructed by using AHP and entropy weight method.(3) Water supply risk index’s calculation results in Jinghuiqu Irrigation District show that: Reliability index’s value is between 79.78%~97.54%, its mean value is 93.80%, which indicates that the reliability is high; Coordination index’s value is between 46.74%~84.89%, its mean value is 67.86%, which indicates that the coordination is relatively high; Recovery index’ value is between 4.05%~16.67%, its mean value is 9.05%, which indicates that the elasticity is low; Vulnerability index’s value is between 0.37%~0.83%, its mean value is 0.55%, which indicates that the vulnerability is low; Daily maximum water shortage rate’s value is between 28.30%~93.10%, its mean value is 65.61%, witch indicates that maximum water shortage rate is relatively high.(4) Analysis results of water supply risk in Jinghuiqu Irrigation District show that: water supply risk comprehensive evaluation values show an increasing trend with the overall frequency of runoff increase, their maximum value is 72.82%, witch is not acceptable risk, their minimum is 15.39%, witch is negligible risk, their extreme value ratio is 4.73,witch shows that their variation range is very large. Mean values of water supply risk in abundant water year, normal water years and dry years are 34.79% 、 42.06% 、 56.83% respectively. Abundant water years’ water supply risk is acceptable risk, witch is mainly influenced by the runoff distribution in the year; Normal water years’ and dry years’ water supply risk are both marginal risk, witch is mainly affected by the annual runoff and its distribution in the year; But special dry years’ water supply risk is very little affected by the distribution of runoff in the year.(5) Countermeasures on reducing Jinghuiqu Irrigation District water supply risk is put forward, witch are applying irrigation runoff production by constructing drainage and water storage facilities, carrying out water conservancy facilities construction supporting the transformation, building some new water source projects and expanding the reservoirs’ capacity that have been built, popularizing Water-Saving Irrigation and establishing a scientific and reasonable system of water price.更多还原