【作者】 王政；

【导师】 毕星； 马春亭；

【作者基本信息】 天津大学 ， 工程管理（专业学位）， 2015， 硕士

【摘要】 房地产业作对我国当前发展国民经济,改善企业办公、居民生活的基础产业,近年来对国民经济的增长做出了巨大的贡献,同时提供了大量的就业机会。房地产行业是典型的资金集中型行业,房地产项目大都涉及的资金数额巨大,而且房地产项目又具有建设周期长,原材料的供应链长,地域性强等特点,使得房地产行业成为一个风险性较高的行业。近年来,由于市场对房产的需要旺盛加之政府的宏观调控,大量的房地产公司纷纷建立,使得房地产市场竞争日益激烈。因此如何进行房地产项目的投资决策,最大程度地规避风险,为企业创造收益,科学地制定投资决策是目前各房地产开发企业急需解决的重要问题。传统进行房地产投资项目决策的方法主要有现金流量折现法、投资内部收益率(IRR)法、投资回收期分析法等,这些决策理论的假设条件比较苛刻,随着房地产开发市场日趋复杂,使得这些理论已不能满足当今房地产企业进行投资决策的需求。随着房地产市场不断发展演变,近些年来的房地产开发项目反映出明显的可延迟开发性、扩张性以及经营管理中的灵活性等特征,使得期权理论得以在房地产投资决策领域发挥作用。实物期权理论作为一种全新的理念,正在被广泛地应用于项目投资决策、企业价值评估等领域。本文详细介绍了实物期权理论以及其在应用于项目投资决策时的两种数学模型:Black-Scholes定价模型与二项式期权定价模型,并通过笔者接触到的房地产投资项目引入实物期权理论进行核算,最后得出的结论认为在引入实物期权理论后房地产投资项目的可投资价值明显上升。最后通过本文的研究笔者认为期权理论现阶段虽还存在一些缺陷,但其理论的先进性是可以确定的,可以被广泛应用于房地产行业,进行项目开发投资决策。更多还原

【Abstract】 Real estate industry, as the leading industry of the national economy, is playing an important role in economic development of China. Real estate industry is a typical capital-intensive and high-risk industry with the characteristics of big investment, long construction period, long supply chain and regional restrictions. In recent years, as the increase of market demand and the government’s policy support, real estate companies emerge in large numbers, making the real estate market competition is increasingly fierce.Therefore, the urgent problem to solve is how to carry out the real estate project investment decision-making, risk aversion to the greatest extent, create benefits for the enterprise, and make investment decisions scientifically.Traditional method for decision-making of real estate investment project mainly include discounted cash flow technique, investment, internal rate of return(IRR) method, payback period analysis method, etc. These decision theories rely on strict assumptions. Since the development of real estate market has become increasingly complex, making these theories can not meet the needs of real estate enterprise to make investment decisions. For many years, with the continuous development of the real estate market, it has been obvious that real estate investment decision-making can be delayed, and is also expansionary and flexible in operation management. Real option theory, as a kind of brand-new concept, is being widely used in project investment decision-making, enterprise value assessment and other fields.This article introduces real option theory and its application in the project investment decision-making of B- S model and binary tree model. The author introduces real option theory of real estate investment project to undertake business accounting, finally came to the conclusion that after introducing the theory of real option, there can be a significant increase in investment value of real estate investment project. Through this study, the author believes that the real option theory is theoritically advance in spite of its current defects and it can be widely used in real estate industry for decision-making of investment projects.更多还原