【作者】 韩阳；

【导师】 米加宁；

【作者基本信息】 哈尔滨工业大学 ， 公共管理， 2014， 硕士

【摘要】 当今，中国的城市化进程不断加快，人口迅速的进入城市，而且把城市周围的乡镇也纳入到发展中来。可是在整个城市管理还没有发展成熟的前提下，过度集中的人口，会造成在城市中发生突发事件风险的提升，致使产生的群众伤亡、经济损失和社会影响都是非常惊人的。中国正处于社会转型期，各种人为的和非人为的灾害屡见不鲜，给人民群众的生产和生活造成了不利影响。虽然有时灾害不能避免，但在许多情况下，灾害的发生和影响是可预见、可控制的。作为灾害事前的防御核心，灾害风险评估已逐步成为全世界关注的焦点。本文在对西方一些国家应用较为成熟和普遍的综合性灾害风险评估方法进行分析、对比的基础上，运用城市应急管理的相关知识思考和采纳灾害风险评估方法中需要应用的参考因素，进而提出适合我国本地区的灾害风险评估方法，为本地区提高灾害风险城市应急管理工作给予启发，同时提供一种方法和手段。文中着力寻找在城市应急管理中对于灾害风险评估有较大影响的主要环节，设计了风险评估准备，风险识别，风险分析，风险评价四个组成部分的城市应急管理构架，并分析四个环节在城市应急管理中起到的关键作用和产生的效果。全文综合运用了资料搜集法，经验总结法，案例研究法，综合分析法，文献法，比较法等方法进行研究分析城市应急管理的构架、管理机制和运行模式，并寻找突发事件风险评估方法。从而建立一个适合我国地方情况的突发事件评估、监测、预警、应急准备和处置的管理方法和流程。论文全面凭借深圳市宝安区开展的中德应急项目试点的风险评估经验，采用多角度，多思维的方式，论述城市应急管理和突发事件风险评估的要素，最后以宝安区部分行业的灾害风险作为方法的评估样例，总结出了目前城市应急工作需要关注的重点，为我国开展突发事件风险评估研究和实践提供了借鉴。更多还原

【Abstract】 Today, with the accelerating urbanization process, the population has beengrowing very fast in the city, and villages and towns around the city are alsoincorporated into the development plan of the core city. However, on the premisethat the city management system haven’t matured, the excessive concentration of thepopulation will result in the occurrence of disaster risk in urban areas, and causingmass casualties, economic losses and social negative impacts. China is in a period ofsocial transition, a variety of human and non-human disasters are common, and theyhave brought unfavorable influence to the people’s production activity and life.Sometimes disasters can’t be avoided, but in many cases, the occurrence and impactof disasters are predictable, controllable. As the core of disaster beforehand defense,disaster risk assessment has gradually become the focus of world attention.In this research, some analysis and confrontation of the evaluation methods ofthe comprehensive disaster risk have been done, and on the basis of the matureresearch in western countries, we use some effective factors related to the referenceadopted by thinking and knowledge of disaster risk assessment model. At last, wefinally proposed suitable disaster risk assessment model with considering the entiresituation of the local region, and aim to improve the disaster risk managementmethod by providing concrete method and means.This paper focus on finding out the core link in the city emergencymanagement for disaster risk assessment, and have designed a four-step possess:risk assessment preparation, risk identification, risk analysis, risk assessment. Theyare the core framework in the city emergency management; we also analyzed thekey role each step played in the city emergency management and the resultingeffects.The full studies have used the following methods: the data collection method,experience summary, case study, comprehensive analysis, literature research, andcomparative research and analysis methods. They all were used to study the cityemergency management framework, management mechanism and mode of operation,and derive disaster risk assessment model, so in final, we established an emergencysituation mechanism for China’s local assessment, monitoring, early warning,emergency preparedness and disposal management methods and processes.With the risk assessment experience gain in the China-German project onemergency item carried out in Baoan District, Shenzhen, the use of multi-angle,multi-paradigm approach, discussed elements of the city emergency managementand the disaster risk assessment. At the last part of this research, we use two cases of Baoan District as a sample risk assessment model, summed up that the focus of thecurrent city emergency work needs much more attention, and provide effectivereference for China to carry out disaster risk assessment study.更多还原