【作者】 余磊；

【导师】 张传平； 吴旭泉；

【作者基本信息】 中国石油大学(华东) ， 工业工程， 2014， 硕士

【摘要】 作为黄河三角洲中心城市,东营市是典型的资源枯竭型城市。近年来,随着城市化和工业化的快速发展,东营市人口和用地规模激增,公共需求全面增长,资源环境约束进一步趋紧,商务成本持续攀升,城市生态环境问题日趋严峻,城市安全与防灾能力脆弱,严重影响到自然资源的可持续利用及城市经济、社会、生态和文化的可持续发展,经济社会转型迫在眉睫。2009年底,国家批复《黄河三角洲高效生态经济区发展规划》,将东营市纳为规划重点,为东营市实现经济转型和可持续发展提供了重要转折点。在此背景下,本文结合东营市经济社会发展现状,从衡量可持续发展的城市综合承载力入手,分析东营市四个子系统承载力基本要素的内部作用机制,辨识四个子系统的核心驱动要素,建立熵权-灰色关联-TOPSIS评价模型,以东营市2005~2012年数据为基础,量化分析四个子系统承载力和综合承载力变化趋势,结果表明:2005~2012年东营市经济系统承载力和环境系统承载力出现了不同程度的增加,社会系统承载力维持在一个稳定的水平,而资源系统承载力大幅下降,东营市综合承载力稳中有升,但是上升幅度不明显。通过对承载力评价结果的分析厘清东营市发展的短板要素和优势要素,从经济、社会、环境-资源三个角度提出了提高东营市综合承载力的建议:①经济支持:依靠现代农业技术,推进生态农业建设;进一步优化产业结构,促进第三产业发展;以资本投入为基础,不断扩大内需。②社会支持:增加社会保障投入和基本建设投入,保障人民生活;不断提高人民生活水平,缩小收入差距。③环境-资源支持:提高资源使用效率,减少三废排放;加快绿色油田建设,开发清洁能源;增加生态环境建设投入,提升环境自净功能。④综合支持:抓住机遇,充分利用外部力量;兼顾城市整体性,使四个子系统协调发展。更多还原

【Abstract】 As the center city of the Yellow River Delta, Dongying is a typical resource-exhausted city. In recent years, with the rapid development of urbanization and industrialization, population and land use surge, public demand grows fast, resource and environmental constraints tighten further, business costs continue to rise, urban ecological and environment problems worsen day by day, urban safety and disaster prevention capability are fragile. All these things severely affect the sustainable use of natural resources and the sustainable development of urban economy, society, ecology and culture, and economic restructuring is imminent. By the end of 2009, the "Yellow River Delta Efficient Ecological Economic Zone Development Plan" was approved, and Dongying was the focus of the plan. This provided an important turning point for Dongying to achieve economic transformation and sustainable development.In this context, according to the present situation of economic and social development of Dongying, internal mechanism of basic elements of each subsystem was analyzed from the vision of comprehensive carrying capacity, and the core elements were identified. Then Entropy-Gray Correlation-TOPSIS evaluation model was established to analyze the carrying capacity of every subsystem and the comprehensive carrying capacity of Dongying with the basic data from 2005 to 2012. The results show that: the carrying capacity of economic system and environmental system increased from 2005 to 2012, social carrying capacity was maintained at a stable level, while resources carrying capacity dropped significantly, and comprehensive carrying capacity didn’t have significant rise. The advantages and disadvantages to the development of Dongying were found out through the analysis of the results. Then suggestions from the vision of economy, society and environmentresource were proposed to improve comprehensive carrying capacity:①Economic support: Rely on modern agricultural technology, and promote the construction of ecological agriculture; optimize the industrial structure and promoting the development of tertiary industry; expand domestic demand based on capital investment.②Social support: increase social security contributions and infrastructure investment; improve people’s living standards and narrow the income gap. ③Environment-Resource support: improve the efficiency of resources and reduce waste emissions; accelerate the construction of green oil fields and develop clean energy; increased environmental investment and improve self-purification function of environment.④Comprehensive support: seize the opportunity and make full use of external forces; both the integrity of city and coordinate the development of four subsystems.更多还原