【作者】 王茜；

【导师】 张凌翔；

【作者基本信息】 北京理工大学 ， 应用经济学， 2016， 硕士

【摘要】 本文采用GTAP-E模型及GTAP 8.0版数据库里的最新数据,模拟分析欧盟、美国和日本三个国家分别或同时对中国征收碳关税对中国出口贸易额、出口贸易结构和产业结构的影响。本文将“国外账户”拆分为美国、欧盟27国、东欧和俄罗斯、日本、中国、净能源出口国、印度、世界其他国家和地区,从而能够更详细的研究碳关税对我国分国别的出口贸易的影响。另外,本文根据行业的碳排放特征将生产部门拆分为农业、煤炭开采业、原油业、天然气开采业、石油产品业、电力业、能源密集产业、其他工业及服务业,从而允许模型分析征收碳关税对我国具有不同碳排放密度的行业的影响。基于四种碳关税情景的模拟结果表明:欧盟、美国和日本三国分别或同时对中国征收碳关税,将导致中国的贸易条件恶化,减少我国对该国的出口贸易额;征收碳关税对于我国不同行业出口的影响程度不同,对碳排放密度较高的行业有着较强的负面影响;征收碳关税,将减少能源密集产业的产量以及能源密集产业在出口贸易额中的份额,增加其他工业及服务业的产量以及工业及其他服务业在出口贸易额中的份额。更多还原

【Abstract】 This article applies GTAP-E model and the newest data in version 8.0 of GTAP database published in 2011. It simulates and analyses the influence on Chinese export trade volume, export trade structure and industrial structure when European Union, the United States or Japan impose carbon tariffs on China respectively or collectively.This article categorizes the "foreign account" into the United States, the European Union’s 27 countries, eastern Europe and Russia, Japan, China, net energy exporter, India and other countries and regions of the world, therefore we can study more detailed impact of carbon tariffs on our country’s trade. In the meanwhile, according to density of carbon emission, all industries are broken down into agricultural production department, coal mining, crude oil industry, gas, petroleum products industry, electricity power, energy intensive industries and other industrial and services sectors, allowing the simulation to analyze the influence of carbon tariffs on industries with different carbon density.The simulation results show that when European Union, the United States or Japan impose carbon tariffs on China, whether respectively or collectively, it will deteriorate China’s terms of trade and reduce the export volume. The impact differs for different industries, industries with high density of carbon emission and industries whose export to European Union, the United States or Japan account for large proportion of total output will suffer more negative affection. The output and export volume of energy intensive industries will be decreased; the output and export volume of other industrial and services sectors will be increased.更多还原