【作者】 张艳；

【导师】 贺卫；

【作者基本信息】 东华大学 ， 产业经济学， 2016， 硕士

【摘要】 目前学者对互联网产业和经济关系的研究上,定性分析的多,定量分析的少。在定量的研究分析中,主要采用经济数学模型分析了互联网产业的电信基础设施、信息要素等与经济的相关性,而采用投入产出法分析互联网产业经济波及效应的相对较少。此外在对经济波及效应的投入产出分析中,分析房地产、旅游等产业的经济波及效应的相对较多,分析互联网产业经济波及效应的相对较少,因此本文的这一研究丰富了前人的研究。本文主要利用了2012年的投入产出表分析了互联网细分的经济部门的经济波及效应,在实证分析的基础上得出研究结论,并提出政策建议。首先,本文进行了理论和定性分析,包括产业关联理论、投入产出法以及互联网产业发展状况,为本文的实证研究奠定理论基础。其次,本文利用2002、2007和2012年投入产出表分析了互联网细分部门的结构变化,结果显示,2002-2007-2012年我国互联网总产出占国民经济总产出的比重先升后降,总体下降,但是细分部门的升降走势有差异,并且互联网细分部门的发展也参差不齐,因此本文以互联网细分经济部门为研究对象。最后,本文利用2012年投入产出表,以细分部门为研究对象,运用投入产出法建立投入产出模型计算影响力系数、感应度系数、最终需求的生产诱发系数和依赖度经济指标反映互联网部门的经济波及效应,其中影响力系数反映互联网产业对其后向关联经济部门的经济波及效应,感应度系数反映对其前向关联经济部门的经济波及效应,最终需求的生产诱发系数反映最终需求项目(消费、投资和出口)在产业关联作用下的经济波及效应,依赖度反映互联网产业对最终需求的依赖度,并据此划分产业类型。实证研究显示:互联网制造业(除了电子元器件制造业)对其后向关联的经济部门的经济波及效应大,对其前向关联的经济部门的经济波及效应小。电子元器件制造业对其前后向关联的经济部门的经济波及效应均大。互联网服务业对其前后向关联的经济部门的经济波及效应均小;出口对互联网制造业的生产波及效应最大,消费对互联网的服务业(电信和其他信息传输服务)的生产波及效应最大,投资对互联网的服务业(软件和信息技术服务)的生产波及效应最大;互联网制造业(除了其他电子设备)均为“出口依赖型”产业,服务业的电信和其他信息传输服务部门是“依赖消费型”部门,其他电子设备、软件和信息技术服务部门是“依赖投资型”部门。并针对研究结果,提出政策建议:主动发展互联网制造业,出台有利的出口政策以及加大政府的扶持力度,促进互联网服务业创新。更多还原

【Abstract】 Currently the researchers of the Internet industry and economic relations, more qualitative analysis, quantitative analysis of small. In the quantitative analysis, the main use of economic mathematical model to analyze the relevance of the Internet industry,telecommunications infrastructure, information and other elements of the economy, while relatively little analysis of economic effects of the use of the Internet industry input-output method.In addition, in the input-output analysis of the economic ripple effect, the analysis is relatively more economic ripple effect of the real estate, tourism and other industries, the analysis is relatively small economic ripple effect of the Internet industry, so this research paper enriches the previous research.In this paper, the use of the 2012 input-output table analyzes the economic ripple effects of the Internet economy. Firstly, the first theoretical and qualitative analysis, including related industries theory, input-output method and the development of the Internet industry, the theoretical basis for the empirical study.Secondly, the use of 2002, 2007 and 2012 input-output table analyzes the changes in the structure of the Internet sector breakdown, the results show that in 2002- 2007- 2012 the total output of China’s Internet share of total national economic output first and then decreased the overall decline, but the trend lifting sector segments are different, and the development of the Internet sector breakdown uneven, so this paper to the Internet broken down sectors of the economy for the study.Finally, we use the 2012 input-output table, broken down to departments for the study,using input- output model to calculate the influence coefficient, sensitivity coefficientinput-output method, final demand and production requirement coefficient dependence of economic indicators reflect economic ripple effect of the Internet sector, which reflects the influence coefficient of the Internet industry to economic ripple effect associated sectors of the economy, reflecting the sensitivity coefficient after its former economic ripple effect to its associated economic sectors, final demand induced production coefficients reflect the final demand for project(consumption, investment and exports) economic ripple effect in the industry associated with the role, reflecting the dependence of the Internet industry industry type. The results show: the Internet industry(except electronic components manufacturing industry) after its ripple effect to the economy sectors of the economy associated with large and small economic ripple effect to its former associated sectors. Electronic components manufacturing industry to the economic ripple effect around its associated sectors are large. Internet services to its front and rear are small ripple effect associated to economic sectors; the largest consumer of Internet services(telecommunications and other information transmission services) production ripple effect ripple effect on the production of export Internet industry showed the largest investment Internet services(software and information technology services) production ripple effect maximum; Internet industry(in addition to other electronic devices) are "export-dependent" industries,telecommunications services and other information transmission service sector is the "consumer-dependent " departments, other electronic equipment, software and information technology services sector is " reliance on investment-type " department. And for the existing problems and research results, the development of China’s Internet industry policy recommendations: Manufacturing active development of the Internet, the introduction of favorable export policies, and increasing government support to promote innovation in Internet services.更多还原