【作者】 张新宇；

【导师】 丁肇勇； 张斌；

【作者基本信息】 吉林大学 ， 工业工程（专业学位）， 2016， 硕士

【摘要】 伴随着市场经济和城市化建设的不断推进,因公共利益需求而发生的房屋拆迁日益增多,城市房屋拆迁关系到我国社会主义现代化的建设以及人民群众的根本利益,这是一项十分重大的工作。上世纪九十年代初期,中央国务院颁布了《城市房屋拆迁管理条例》。2001年随着经济的不断发展,中央国务院十分重视此工作,对条例进行了进一步的补充和完善,并颁布了《城市房屋拆迁管理条例》的修订版,但拆迁项目不断增加,拆迁中的矛盾也日益增多这极大的影响了社会的和谐稳定。在2011年初,国务院公布并实施了《国有土地上房屋征收与补偿条例》,其中明确指出,市、县级人民政府在做出房屋征收决定前,应按照有关规定进行社会稳定风险评估。增加了国有土地上房屋征收与社会稳定风险评估体系。国有土地上房屋征收与补偿社会稳定风险评估,是房屋征收项目实施过程中的新生事物,其技术不够成熟。在国外,风险评估多是从环境评估开始,从这一角度就减少了一些对项目的不利因素,但他并不能从根本上解决问题,改变以物质为中心的经济评价。随着人们意识的不断增强,和风险评估的发展,社会稳定风险评估已经成为主要的社会评估之一。部分国外的评估方法主要是以一些工程管理方法为主,主要包括:层次分析法、蒙特卡洛法、灰色系统理论、模糊综合评价、人工神经网络等。在国内,随着经济的发展,城市的建设,很多学者都开展了对社会稳定风险评估的研究,他们从各个角度对社会稳定风险进行了解释,并提出了自己的相关观点。国家也十分重视对社会稳定风险评估的分析,国家发改委曾发布《重大固定资产投资项目社会稳定风险分析篇章和评估报告编制大纲》(试行)。部分省、市也根据各地的实际情况制定了社会稳定风险评估实施办法和评估细则。但现有的社会稳定风险评估体系,在合理性、可行性及可控性等内容上都有待进一步研究。国内现有的相关文献也还比较的零散没有形成一定的系统。目前的房屋征收社会稳定风险评估操作过程也过于简单,可操作性不强,指标缺乏,民意表达途径不畅,利益诉求不够等诸多因素,对房屋征收社会稳定风险评估结果造成了影响。因此笔者想通过对这一课题的研究来建立和完善国有土地上房屋征收与补偿社会稳定风险体系。本文将结合管理学、法学、经济学等学科,深入探讨与研究国有土地上房屋征收与补偿社会稳定风险评估的基础理论以及风险形成因素等问题,建立健全房屋征收与补偿社会稳定风险评估体系,完善房屋征收与补偿社会稳定风险评估指标,使其在房屋征收工作中充分发挥作用。国有土地上房屋征收与补偿社会稳定风险评估理论的推进,对于我国的房屋征收与补偿工作的指导有着不可估量的实践作用,是决定征收项目能否顺利启动的重要因素。在研究过程中主要运用调查法、文献法、层次分析法、模糊综合法、定性与定量相结合法、理论与实践相结合的方法,对房屋征收与补偿社会稳定风险评估的流程各个环节进行了分析,并针对各个风险要素的起因和影响对风险体系的构成进行了论述,为整个房屋征收与补偿社会稳定风险评估奠定基础。社会稳定风险评估的开展,对于预防和化解社会冲突实现社会的和谐发展具有重大意义。国有土地上房屋征收与补偿风险评估是房屋征收与补偿工作中的重要环节,评估的结果对项目的开展具有举足轻重的作用。通过风险评估我们能够及早的发现征收项目中存在的社会不稳定因素,并能够及时的采取措施予以化解,将问题解决在萌芽状态,做好国有土地上房屋的征收与补偿社会稳定风险评估具有十分重要的意义。通过理论研究和具体实例研究并结合房屋征收与补偿社会稳定风险的特点,从社会保障制度、政府形象执行力、公共利益的界定、征收补偿方案、征收相关部门横向协调工作、评估机构监管等方面,提出了有针对性的防范建议。本文提出的社会稳定风险评估体系和方法使风险评估得到了量化,经过等级的划分,可有效的指导征收与补偿项目的实施,为房屋征收与补偿项目的顺利开展提供了有力的保障,以最大的程度维护社会的稳定,在今后的房屋征收与补偿工作中要逐步推行科学有效的社会稳定风险体系,使其在征收与补偿工作中充分发挥不可替代的作用。更多还原

【Abstract】 Along with the development of market economy and urbanization construction, increasing occurred as a result of the demands of public interests and the demolition of housing, urban housing demolition to China’s socialist modernization construction and people’s fundamental interests. This is a very important work. In the early ninety century, the State Council promulgated the "Regulations" management city housing demolition. In 2001, with the continuous development of the economy, Central Committee and the State Council attaches great importance to this work, to further supplement and perfect the regulations, and the promulgation of the revised version of the "Regulations on the management of urban housing units", but the demolition project is increasing, demolition contradictions are increasing which greatly influence the social harmony and stability. In early 2011, the State Council promulgated and implemented the "state-owned land on the housing levy and Compensation Ordinance", which clearly pointed out that city and County People’s Government in making the decisions on house expropriation shall be in accordance with the relevant provisions on social stability risk assessment. Increase the risk assessment system of housing expropriation and social stability in the state owned land. The state-owned land on the housing levy and compensation of social stability risk assessment is a new thing in the process of the implementation of the housing levy project; the technology is not mature enough. In foreign countries, risk assessment more is to start from the environmental assessment, from the perspective of reducing some unfavorable factors to the project, but he did not fundamentally solve the problem, change the economic evaluation to the matter as the center. With the growing awareness of people, and the development of risk assessment, social stability risk assessment has become one of the main social assessments. The main methods of evaluation to some project management methods, these methods is complex, has some limitations, so main methods currently used include: hierarchical analysis method, Monte Carlo method and grey system theory, fuzzy comprehensive evaluation, artificial neural network etc.. Analysis on the part of the foreign evaluation index. The main from the following two points: one is the combination of qualitative and quantitative, qualitative analysis is the evaluation of national reform and social development, quantification is refers to reflect the economic, political, cultural and other aspects of the indicators; second is kind of risk assessment and scope has limitations. In China, with the development of economy, urban construction, many scholars are carried out on social stability risk assessment research, they from all angles of social stability risk is explained, and put forward their own views. Country also attached great importance to the social stability risk assessment analysis, the national development and Reform Commission has issued a "major projects of fixed assets investment social stability risk analysis text and assessment report of the preparation of the outline(for Trial Implementation), part of the province, the city also according to the actual situation in the country developed in the social stability risk assessment of the implementation of the measures and evaluation rules. But the existing social stability risk assessment system, the rationality, feasibility and controllability of content need to be further studied. The existing literature is still relatively fragmented and has not formed a certain system. Currently houses the collection of social stability risk assessment process is too simple, operability is not strong, lack of indicators, expression of public opinion way is impeded, the demands of interest is not enough, and many other factors, the housing levy social stability risk assessment results are affected. So I want to study on this topic to establish and perfect the state-owned land on the housing levy and compensation system of social stability risk. In this paper, the combination of management science, law, economics and other disciplines, in-depth discussion and research of state-owned land on the housing levy and compensation of social stability risk assessment theory and risk factors, establish and improve the housing levy and compensation of social stability risk assessment system, improve the housing levy and compensation of social stability risk assessment index, make it in the housing levy work give full play to the role. Advance of state-owned land on the housing levy and compensation and social stability risk assessment theory and guidance for our house expropriation and compensation work has a immeasurable role in the practice, is to determine whether the smooth start of collection items are important factors. The housing levy and compensation project in the unstable factors, risk assessment index and risk classification problem are analyzed, so that the social stability risk assessment system can be quantified, to establish a strong operational risk assessment model, to the risk grade of the division, and proposed the corresponding control means, and gradually improve the social stability risk assessment work in the housing levy and compensation rationality, from the source to prevent, reduce even eliminate the unstable factors, maintain social stability, to ensure the smooth progress of house expropriation and compensation work.In the course of the study this paper mainly uses the survey method, literature method, analytic hierarchy process(AHP), fuzzy comprehensive method, qualitative and quantitative combined legal theory and practice of combining the method of housing levy and compensation of social stability risk assessment process each link are analyzed, and the causes and effects of each risk factor of risk system are discussed in this paper, lay the foundation for the housing levy and compensation of social stability risk assessment. To carry out the social stability risk assessment, is of great significance for the harmonious development of preventing and resolving social conflicts to achieve social. The state-owned land on the housing levy and compensation risk assessment is an important link of house expropriation and compensation work, the results of the assessment plays an important role in the project. Through the risk assessment we can discover existing collection items in social instability, and to take timely measures to resolve the problems in the bud. Do a good job on the state-owned land expropriation and compensation, social stability risk assessment of housing is very important. The theoretical research and practical case study and combined with the housing levy and compensation of social stability risk characteristics, from the social security system, the image of the government executive power, public interest defined expropriation compensation scheme, the collection of relevant departments horizontal coordination work, assessment institutions and puts forward some preventive suggestions for.Implementation of the proposed social stability risk assessment system and method enable risk assessment has been quantified. After classification, can effectively guide the expropriation and compensation project, provides a powerful guarantee for the housing levy and compensation project smoothly, to the greatest degree of dimension to maintaining social stability, in the future of housing expropriation and compensation work to gradually implement the scientific and effective risk system of social stability, and enable them to play the irreplaceable role in the expropriation and compensation work sufficiently.更多还原