【作者】 马海燕；

【导师】 林秀梅；

【作者基本信息】 吉林大学 ， 数量经济学， 2016， 硕士

【摘要】 制造业是处于工业化中、后期国家的支柱产业,制造业的强弱体现了国家竞争力的强弱。但是制造业的发展不是孤立的,它离不开服务业特别是生产性服务业的支持,先进的生产性服务业,不仅可以降低制造业的成本,提高制造业的效率,也可以提升制造业的附加值。改革开放以来,我国制造业和生产性服务业都得到快速发展,但是与发达国家相比,我国生产性服务业发展还不够,对制造业发展的促进作用,特别是对制造业效率提升的促进作用还不清晰。因此从效率提升的视角研究生产性服务业对制造业发展的影响具有重要理论与现实意义。本文依据内生经济增长理论以及相关理论模型,阐释了生产性服务业这一高级中间投入在制造业发展中所起的作用,揭示了生产性服务业种类的提高可以促进制造业的发展。同时本文利用统计数据和投入产出数据,系统分析了我国制造业和生产性服务业规模增长与结构变迁的动态特征;测算了制造业和生产性服务业的中间投入系数与中间需求系数以及影响力系数和感应度系数,揭示了其产业关联效应和波及效应;本文还利用Malmquist生产率指数,刻画了我国制造业和生产性服务业的效率水平及动态趋势,并揭示了不同行业的效率特征,发现我国生产性服务业效率增长的主要动力是产业技术效率,我国制造业效率增长的主要动力是技术进步效率,但制造业和生产性服务业的效率水平呈平缓下降趋势。最后,本文从整体和局部两个视角,利用静态面板数据计量模型和动态面板数据计量模型,实证分析了我国生产性服务业发展对制造业效率水平提升的动态影响,并揭示了生产性服务业不同行业对制造业效率水平提升的影响存在差异。发现总体生产性服务业对制造业效率的提升,无论是当期还是滞后1期均呈显著的正向促进效应;部分代表性生产性服务业的发展对制造业效率的提升存在时滞效应,即除交通运输及仓储业各期均对制造业效率的提升起到正向影响之外,信息传输、计算机服务和软件业、批发和零售贸易业对制造业效率提升的作用延后一期,而金融保险业、租赁和商务服务业、文化、体育和娱乐业只在当期起到正向促进作用。本文还根据实证分析结果,提出了相应的政策建议。全文结构如下:第一章绪论,介绍研究背景及研究意义,从生产性服务业与制造业关系以及有关生产性服务业和制造业效率两个方面综述了国内外相关研究成果。并对本文研究思路及框架进行阐述。第二章生产性服务业与制造业相关的理论模型。本章首先界定了制造业与生产性服务业内涵及分类。然后分别利用迪克西特-斯蒂格利茨模型和内生经济增长模型分析了生产性服务业与制造业之间经济学关系,为本文提供了经济学理论基础。第三章我国生产性服务业与制造业的规模、结构、效率动态特征。本章依据统计数据首先对生产性服务业和制造业总体规模与结构的动态特征进行分析,然后利用投入产出模型分析了生产性服务业与制造业内部关联结构变迁,并分别分析两个产业的关联效应和波及效应,最后利用DEA-Malmquist指数法测算出生产性服务业与制造业的效率水平及动态变化趋势,并对效率进行了分解。第四章我国生产性服务业对制造业效率提升影响的实证分析。本章首先介绍静态面板数据模型和动态面板数据模型,为本文实证分析提供了具体的计量理论模型,其次对回归模型、模型中涉及到的变量、以及变量数据来源进行介绍。最后从整体和局部两个视角,分别利用静态面板数据模型和动态面板数据模型,实证分析了生产性服务业对制造业效率提升的影响以及不同行业的影响差异。最后给出结论和政策建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 Manufacturing is late in industrialization, the country’s pillar industry, the strength of the manufacturing embodies the world competitiveness. But the manufacturing development is not isolated, it can’t depart from the support of service industry especially the producer services, advanced producer services, not only the manufacturing industry can achieve cost reduction and high efficiency, but also increase the added value. Compared with the other big countries, since reform and opening, China’s manufacturing industry and producer services are developing rapidly,but it is far from enough. It is obscure that producer services improve manufacturing development from the efficiency aspect. Therefore, at this point, the research on the promotion effect between them is given the great theoretical significance and realistic meaning.This paper based on endogenous growth theory and related theoretical models, explain the role of producer services as a senior middle input in the development of manufacturing industry, and reveals increasing the types of producer services can improve manufacturing development. Meanwhile, this paper uses statistical data and input-output data to analyse the dynamic characteristics of the overall scale growth and the structure variable of producer services and manufacturing in China. In addition, the intermediate input coefficient, intermediate demand coefficient, influence coefficient and induction coefficient of the manufacturing and producer service are calculated. And the industrial correlation effect and spillover effect are revealed. By the Malmquist productivity index this paper describe the manufacturing and producer service level of efficiency and dynamic trend of China, and reveals the efficiency characteristics of different industries, the main driving force of China’s producer service industry productivity growth is found to be a technical efficiency of industry, the main force of the efficiency of manufacturing in China is the technical progress efficiency, but the manufacturing and producer service efficiency level is slowly declined. Finally, from the overall and local two levels, this paper uses static and dynamic panel data model,quantitative analysis of the evolution of producer service in China on the efficiency of manufacturing to enhance the level of the dynamic effects of, and reveals the different kinds of producer services impact on the efficiency of manufacturing to enhance the level of differences. The paper found overall producer services to manufacturing efficiency improvement, whether current or lagged one period showed a significant positive effect; the effect of some representative producer services development onthe manufacturing efficiency improvement exist time lag effect, namely, except the transportation and warehousing industry in each period have a positive effect on the efficiency of the manufacturing. The role of information transmission, computer services and software industry, wholesale and retail trade industry on the efficiency promotion of manufacturing industry is delayed one phase and finance and insurance,leasing and business services as well as culture, sports and entertainment only in the current period has a positive role in promoting. Then give advice based on the results.The full text structure is as follows:Chapter 1 is Introduction. Background and meaning are showed at here.Then this paper reviewed research status from the view of producer services and manufacturing relationship and the view of producer services industry and efficiency of manufacturing industry and describe the research ideas and framework at this part.Chapter 2 is the theoretical model of producer service and manufacturing industry. Firstly, this chapter defines the connotation and classification of manufacturing and producer services. Then respectively using the Dixit Stiglitz model and endogenous economic growth model analyzes the economic relations between producer service and manufacturing industry. This part provides the theoretical basis of economics.Chapter 3 is the dynamic feature of the scale, construction and efficiency of China’s producer service and manufacturing. This chapter relies on the statistics.Firstly, it analyzes the dynamic characteristics of the overall scale and structure of the producer service and the manufacturing. Secondly, it analyzes their inner relevance structure changes, correlation effect and spillover effect separately by the input-output model. Finally, By the DEA-Malmquist index method this paper calculate the producer service and manufacturing industry efficiency level and dynamic change trend, as well as the decomposition of efficiency.Chapter 4 is quantitative analysis——the impact of producer services on the efficiency of manufacturing in China. Firstly, the static and dynamic panel data models are introduced as the basic theory. Secondly, this paper introduce the regression model and variables involved, and the variable data sources. Finally, this paper from two perspective of the overall and local, using the above model, analysis the influence of producer service to the manufacturing industry efficiency improvement as well as the different effect come from the different producer service.The last is the conclusion and advise.更多还原