【作者】 刘佳；

【导师】 吴海建；

【作者基本信息】 北京物资学院 ， 统计学， 2016， 硕士

【摘要】 经济全球化的快速扩张加速了产业发展模式的改革,产业发展模式趋向协同和复杂化,使产业间的相互关联和影响作用日益加深,这种相互作用主要表现在产业的关联和波及效应上。随着产业结构的变革和发展模式的复杂,有关产业关联和波及效应的研究应运而生。多年来,此类研究主要集中于以理论为主的定性研究,部分以投入产出模型为基础的定量研究也多从描述性关联角度出发,少有对这种产业关系的全面描述和测算,本文正是以此为目的,对产业间的这种关联关系进行研究。指标体系可将抽象的研究对象具体化,通过构建一种可行的结构反映研究对象的本质属性。本文正是以指标体系为指导思想,通过构建产业关联和波及效应指标体系,从产业基础、产业关联、产业波及和社会感应四个方面对其进行全面系统的描述。指标体系构建的意义在于应用,本文应用部分对各级指标赋权编制相应指数,并选取逐渐成为第三利润源泉的物流业作为目标产业,对指标体系进行具体测算。为了更全面地反映物流业发展状况和指标体系的应用范围,本文从同时选取了2007年和2012年的纵向数据和北京与全国的横向数据,分别对指标体系进行测算,并对比分析测算结果。另外,投入产出表是本文的主要数据来源。其时间上的间断性和滞后性对其应用带来了极大的不便。为克服这一限制,本文引入了EC法和结构比例外推法对投入产出表进行预测,并与官方公布数据进行对比检验,验证了预测方法的可行性和科学性,拓宽了投入产出表的应用限制。最后,针对前文对北京市和全国物流业测算结果的分析,提出了物流业发展的政策建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 The rapid expansion of economic globalization accelerates the reformation of industrialization patterns. The industrialization patterns tend to synergy and complicate, which makes the relationship and influence among industries more and more deepening. The interactions mainly perform on the associations and ripple effects among industries. With the transformation of industrial structures and complex of the industrialization patterns, the studies about associations and ripple effects among industries are born at the right moment. Last years, these study mainly concentrate on the qualitative research depending on theory. Some Study bases on the I-O Model but only from the perspective of descriptive correlation, rarely gives a comprehensive description and measure of the relationship among the industrial. The aim of this paper is study on the relationship between industries based on I-O Model.Index System can embody the abstract research object, and reflect the nature of the study object by constructing a feasible structure. This paper is based on Index System, by building the index system of industry associations and spread effect, gives a comprehensive and systematically description from four aspects, the industrial base, industrial relationship, industrial spread and social induction. The purpose of the establishment of index system is for application, the application part of this paper weights all levels of indicators and establish corresponding exponent, and make specific measurement of index system based on logistics industry which gradually be the third profit source. In order to reflect the logistics industry development status and applied range of index system more fully, this paper chooses the longitudinal data and horizontal data of Beijing and nationwide at 2007 and 2012 to measure the index system respectively and comparative analysis the measurement result.In addition, the input-output table is the main data source of this paper. Its discontinuity and lag on time brought great inconvenience for its application. To overcome this limitation, this paper introduces the EC law and structure proportion extrapolation method to proceed the input-output table, and contrast test with official published data, verifying the feasibility and scientificity of the forecasting method, broadening the application limitation of input-output table.In the end, this paper gives policy suggestion of the logistics industry development based on the analysis of the measurement result of logistics industry of Beijing and nationwide.更多还原