【作者】 张坤；

【导师】 孙音；

【作者基本信息】 东北财经大学 ， 金融学， 2016， 硕士

【摘要】 商品房市场化改革在我国实施以后,房地产行业飞速发展,并迅速成为我国国民经济的支柱产业,在我国经济的增长中起到了举足轻重的作用。与此同时,作为居民生活的必需商品,近几年来过快上涨的房地产价格已经日益成为人们关注的焦点,而且政府也一直在采取相应的措施对房地产价格进行调控。价格上涨过快、超过一般居民的购买能力的房地产市场,甚至出现泡沫化倾向,在一定程度上给整个社会造成了不利的影响。另一方面,商业银行信贷作为政府货币政策主要内容,同时也是市场支持房地产行业发展的重要资金来源。通过观察商业银行信贷与房地产价格之间的关系,我们也可以发现两者之间存在同步上涨的现象。那么,房地产价格与商业银行信贷之间的关系到底怎样?是否存在因果关系?是否可以通过相关政策影响商业银行信贷来抑制房地产价格过快上涨呢?带着这一系列疑问,本文从房地产价格为切入点研究了其与银行信贷之间的互动关系,既包括定性分析又包括定量研究。本文首先回顾了国内外相关文献,阐释了房地产、房地产价格等相关概念。在此基础上,分析了我国房地产市场、银行信贷的发展现状,介绍了商业银行信贷的风险管理。通过货币数量论、IS-LM模型和供需均衡分析,分别论述银行信贷与房地产价格之间的相互影响机制。为了验证两者之间的关系,本文又进行了实证检验,采用单位根检验、协整检验、误差修正模型、格兰杰因果关系检验和脉冲响应函数等一系列计量方法,分析了房地产价格和银行信贷之间的长期和短期作用,并且对实证研究结果作了阐释与说明。检验结果表明,银行信贷和房地产价格之间存在互为因果关系的机制。同时,实证分析发现商业银行信贷对房地产价格的影响比房地产价格对银行信贷的影响要大。根据研究结论,本文建议商业银行健全信贷机制,房地产商拓宽融资渠道,政府调整房地产结构、完善住房保障制度,保证房地产市场的健康发展。更多还原

【Abstract】 Commercial housing market reform in China after the implementation of the real estate industry, the rapid development of China’s national economy and the rapid development of the pillar industry in China’s economic growth has played a pivotal role. At the same time, as the residents living in the essential commodities, in recent years, the rapid rise of real estate prices have increasingly become the focus of attention, and the government has been taking measures to control the real estate prices. Prices rose too fast, more than the general population of the purchase of real estate market, and even the emergence of a tendency to bubble, to some extent, has caused a negative impact on the whole society.On the other hand, commercial bank credit as the main content of the government monetary policy, but also the market support for the real estate industry development of an important source of funds, and by observing the relationship between commercial bank credit and real estate prices, we can also find the existence of the phenomenon of synchronous rise between the two. What is the relationship between the real estate price and commercial bank credit in the end whether there is a causal relationship between the commercial banks credit to curb real estate prices to curb real estate prices too fast.This paper first reviews the domestic and foreign literature, the interpretation of the real estate, real estate prices and other related concepts. On the basis of this, Then it analyzes the current situation of China’s real estate market and bank credit, and introduces.the risk management of commercial bank credit. The paper discusses the mutual influence mechanism between bank credit and real estate price by the quantity theory of money, the IS model and the equilibrium of supply and demand. In order to verify the relationship between the two, this paper also carries out empirical test, using unit root test, cointegration test, error correction model, Grainger test and impulse response function and a series of measurement methods, analysis of real estate prices and bank credit between the long-term and short-term role, and the empirical results are explained and illustrated. The test results show that the relationship between reciprocal causation, bank real estate credit and real estate. At the same time, the test results also show that commercial bank credit to the real estate price impact than the real estate prices on the impact of bank credit. According to the research conclusion, this paper suggests that commercial banks improve credit system, real estate companies expand financing channels, the government adjust the real estate structure, improve the housing security system, to ensure the healthy development of the real estate market.更多还原