【作者】 吴峰；

【导师】 陈超；

【作者基本信息】 南京农业大学 ， 农业推广， 2014， 硕士

【摘要】 大豆作为我国重要粮食作物之一,已有五千年的栽培历史。有史料记载以来,大豆及其制品一直作为中国餐桌上的美味佳肴,为人们提供着丰富的植物蛋白和必须的营养物质。作为大豆的原产国,我国大豆进出口贸易一直在国际农产品贸易中扮演着重要的角色,1982年我国的大豆出口量达到全球出口份额的90%,它也一度成为我国换取外汇的重要物资。然而,从1996年始,由于我国大豆市场需求激增,国内大豆种植面积也逐年减少,大豆产量停滞不前,同时随着大豆进口关税的下调,我国大豆进口份额呈现快速增长趋势。随着我国进一步放开大豆市场,取消配额限制,很快中国由原来的大豆净出口国摇身变为大豆净进口国。2012年我国大豆进口量已高达5838万吨,而当年国内大豆产量仅为1280万吨,大豆对外进口依存度超过80%。面对国内大豆市场需求的巨额增量,本文运用虚拟耕地计算方法,测算得出如果要实现我国大豆市场的自给自足,那么将会以牺牲大量其他主要农作物耕种面积为代价,进而会对我国的粮食安全造成严重威胁。因此寄希望于增加国内大豆产量,减少中国大豆进口的观点是不符合实际的,应该正确认识大豆贸易对中国农业生产和提高人民生活水平的意义,理性面对现实。研究表明,20世纪末开启的大豆进口贸易,为我国农业生产节约了大量的耕地资源,但同时也带来了进口来源国相对单一,贸易风险较大的问题。因此,本文通过对国际大豆可获得性进行分析,得出应当依据我国大豆市场特点,进一步合理利用境外资源,实施有效的虚拟耕地战略,同时依据我国大豆产业自身特点构建大豆安全战略体系,发挥我国传统大豆比较优势,发展非转基因大豆深加工,继而调整国内大豆加工产能布局,促进行业改革和产业升级,促使我国大豆产业良性发展,保障我国粮食安全。更多还原

【Abstract】 As one of China’s most important food crops, soybean has a long cultivated history of 5000 years. According to historical records, soybean along with its products serves as delicacies, providing abundant vegetable protein and nutrients needed by Chinese people. As the original country of soybeans, China’s import and export trade has played a vital role in international agricultural product trade. For example, China’s export volume of soybeans accounts for 90% of world’s total export volume in 1982, which once served as important materials for foreign exchanges.However since 1996, China’s import share of soybeans has been on a rapid increase due to its tariff reduction and stagnating production in addition to China’s increasing demand for soybeans and annual decreasing soybean plantation acres. With opening up more of its soybean market and scrapping the quotas on soybeans, China has very soon become a net importer from a net exporter. In 2012, the number of China’s imported soybeans was as large as 58,380,000 tons while domestic production was only 12,800,000 tons, indicating that China’s soybean import degree of dependence had amounted to over 80%. Due to the greatly increasing market demand for soybeans, based on the calculation method of virtual farmland this paper has reached the result that if China realizes self-sufficiency in soybeans, it would be at the cost of decreasing a mass of plantation acreages of other main crops, which would further threaten food security in China. Therefore, it is not plausible to approach those problems only through increasing domestic soybean production and reducing soybean imports. A rational attitude should be adopted towards soybean trade’s role in increasing China’s agricultural production and improving people’s living standard.Studies have suggested that soybean import trade starting from the end of 20th century has saved a large quantity of land resources for China’s agricultural production. Yet, it also causes comparative singularity of import origins and more risks in trade. Thereto, by analyzing accessibility of international soybean, the paper has concluded that we should make full use of external resources and carry out effective strategies of virtual farmland according to characteristics of China’s soybean market. Meanwhile, it is necessary to establish a soybean security strategic system in accordance with the features of the soybean industry, to strive to develop the deep processing industry of non-GM soybeans by playing comparative advantages of traditional soybeans, and to guarantee China’s food security and positive development of soybean industry through adjustment of production capacities of domestic soybean industries and promotion of industrial reforms and upgrading.更多还原