【作者】 李谦；

【导师】 王洪涛； 肖长虹；

【作者基本信息】 山东大学 ， 电气工程（专业学位）， 2015， 硕士

【摘要】 随着全球气候的改变以及风能作为主要可再生能源形式的大规模开发,天气因素越来越成为系统故障的主要诱因,大规模风电的接入加剧了系统运行调度的难度。因此,研究天气条件以及风电接入对系统在运行尺度上的风险分析有利于运行人员加深对运行状态的认识,为运行人员进行调度决策提供技术支持。为了防止停电事故的发生,提高电力系统的安全性,20世纪30年代以来,研究人员已对电力系统可靠性进行了大量研究,并取得了一系列成果。电力系统行为的概率特征是电力系统风险的根源。20世纪90年代,将概率方法引入到电力系统运行评估中,可以对多种不确定性因素对电力系统的影响进行深入的研究。在分析输电线路停运概率时将输电元件载荷作为主要影响因素,建立电网运行风险决策模型,仿真结果表明,输电线路的停运概率和载荷量对电网风险决策影响显著。本文在分析前人研究成果的基础上研究了风电功率的出力特性。本文将风电功率的波动性分日、月、年等三个时间尺度进行了分析,研究不同时间尺度下的波动性特征。风电功率的间歇性严重影响着电网的功率平衡,本文通过不同的低功率(包括零功率)持续时间,研究了风电功率的间歇性。用遗传性方法研究了风电功率的变化速度和连续性。为了研究风电功率的转移特性,将风电功率等分成一定数量的功率区间,建立了风电功率的转移矩阵和转移率矩阵,对不同功率区间的转移率进行了分析,揭示了不同功率区间的波动性和随机性的强弱程度是不同的。本文在研究了风电功率的出力特性后进行了系统风险评估,同时考虑了天气因素。电力系统风险评估是对由于元件失效而引起的系统风险的评价。电力系统运行风险评估包括4个基本步骤：建立元件停运模型、选择系统状态、系统状态分析、风险指标计算。分析了基于马尔可夫过程的元件状态概率,建立了发电机的停运模型和基于天气三状态的输电线路停运模型。分析了选择系统状态的方法,非序贯模特卡罗法又称为状态抽样法,每一个元件处于某个状态的概率不尽相同,通过抽样来确定每个元件的状态,全部元件的状态确定后形成一个系统状态。电力系统的运行风险可以通过定量的风险指标来衡量,本文建立了电力系统运行风险的风险指标体系。本文采用RTS-79测试系统进行电力系统的运行风险分析。由于输电线路暴露在室外,因此易受天气状态影响,输电线路在不同的天气状态下,其出现故障的概率是不同的,当某一线路出现故障时,其它线路易出现过载现象。风电的波动性主要引起弃风风险和失负荷风险,不同时刻的风险是不同的,当风电功率较小时,下一时刻的弃风风险比较大,可以采取的预防措施有增加具有高调节速度的电源；当风电功率较大时,如果系统的调峰容量不足,下一时刻的失负荷风险比较大,可以采取的预防措施有增加具有高调节速度的电源和增加系统的备用容量。更多还原

【Abstract】 With the global climate change and wind energy as the main form of renewable energy development, weather factors are becoming the main cause of system failure, the access of large scale wind power increases the difficulty of the operation of the system. Therefore, the study of the weather conditions and the risk analysis of the wind power access to the system on the running scale is conducive to the operation of the personnel to deepen the understanding of the operating state, to provide technical support for the operation of the operation of the decision.In order to prevent the occurrence of power failure and improve the security of the power system, since 1930s, researchers have carried out a lot of research on power system reliability, and have achieved a series of results. The probability characteristic of power system behavior is the source of power system risk. In 1990s, the probability method is introduced into the power system operation evaluation, and the influence of many factors on power system is studied. In the analysis of transmission line outage probability, the load of transmission line is the main factor, and the risk decision model is established. The simulation results show that the outage probability and load of transmission line have a significant impact on the risk decision-making.Based on the analysis of the results of previous studies, this paper studies the output characteristics of wind power. In this paper, the fluctuation of wind power is analyzed by three time scales, such as the day, the month and the year. The intermittent of wind power has a serious impact on the power balance of power system. In this paper, the intermittent of the wind power is studied by different low power (including zero power) duration. The change speed and continuity of wind power were studied by genetic method. In order to study the transfer characteristics of wind power, the wind power is divided into a certain number of power, the transfer matrix and the transfer rate matrix of the wind power are established. The transfer rate of different power ranges is analyzed. It reveals that the degree of the fluctuation and the randomness of the different power ranges are different.In this paper, the risk assessment of wind power generation is studied, and the weather factors are considered. Risk assessment of power system is the evaluation of the system risk caused by the failure of components. Operation risk assessment of power system includes 4 basic steps:the establishment of component outage model, selection system, system state analysis, risk index calculation. The element state probability based on Markov process is analyzed, and the outage model of generator is established, and the outage model of transmission line based on weather three state is established. The non-sequential model is called the state sampling method. The probability of each component is different. The state of each element is determined by sampling. The state of all elements is determined to form a system state. The operational risk of power system can be measured by quantitative risk index, and the risk index system of power system operation risk is established in this paper. This paper uses the RTS-79 test system for power system operation risk analysis. As the transmission lines are exposed to the outside, it is easy to be affected by weather conditions, and the probability of failure of transmission lines in different weather conditions is different, when a certain line is faulty, the other lines are prone to overload. The fluctuation of wind power mainly causes the risk of abandoned wind and the risk of the loss, and the risk is different in different time. When the wind power is less, the next time the risk of abandoning the wind is relatively large. Preventive measures can be taken to increase the high speed power supply. When the wind power is large, if the lack of peaking capacity system, the risk of the loss of the load at the next moment is relatively large. Preventive measures can be taken to increase the high speed power supply and increase the standby capacity of the system.更多还原