【作者】 孙杨；

【导师】 张尧；

【作者基本信息】 东北大学 ， 国际商务， 2014， 硕士

【摘要】 自改革开放以来,中国经济和全球经济相互融合,随着外国公司对中国FDI项目投资的增加,中国公司也走出国门,开始对外进行FDI项目投资。中国公司对外进行FDI项目投资所涉及的领域十分广泛,公司类型也具有多样化的特点。在这些公司走出去的过程中,会受到不同因素的影响,本文主要研究背景风险对FDI项目投资的影响。FDI项目投资在受到项目风险影响的同时也会受到背景风险的影响。项目风险是指项目本身所面临的风险,背景风险是指来自项目外部但却能对FDI项目投资产生影响的风险,根据背景风险的性质不同,可以将其划分为加性背景风险和乘性背景风险。风险之间的相互作用是比较复杂的,需要通过构建模型来对其进行分析。如果忽略背景风险的作用将会导致不同的投资结果,研究背景风险对FDI项目投资的影响具有重要意义。以往的研究常常假设风险之间相互独立,但在现实情况中,背景风险和项目风险之间往往存在关联,这种关联性会对投资者的FDI项目投资行为产生影响。本文分别研究了加性背景风险和项目风险之间存在不同关联性时对投资收益和投资规模的影响,乘性背景风险和项目风险之间存在不同关联性时对投资收益和投资规模的影响,明确了背景风险的作用是不可忽视的。本文构建了一个FDI项目投资模型,在模型中同时考虑加性背景风险和乘性背景风险,通过改变两种背景风险与项目风险之间的关联性,进一步研究背景风险的存在对投资行为的影响。本文引入L-POWER公司对南非进行风电项目投资的现实背景,讨论作为加性背景风险的已有项目利润风险、作为乘性背景风险的汇率风险和作为项目风险的投资收益率风险之间的相关性,利用蒙特卡洛方法,通过@Risk软件生成不同的随机变量,模拟项目风险和背景风险,对模型进行仿真运算,然后分析结果,得出结论。具体讨论在实际案例中,投资者同时面对两种背景风险时的投资行为变化。在单独考虑加性背景风险或乘性背景风险的情况下,背景风险和项目风险之间不同的关联性会对FDI项目投资产生不同的影响。而在L-POWER公司对南非进行风电项目投资的案例中,同时考虑两种背景风险的作用,此时汇率风险和项目收益率风险之间关联性的影响处于主导地位。通过分析背景风险和项目风险之间不同关联性下的投资行为,可以对投资者起到指导作用。更多还原

【Abstract】 Since China implemented reform and opening up policy, China’s economy and the global economy have more integration, the trade and economic cooperation between China and foreign country are strengthened gradually. With the increase numbers of foreign enterprises making FDI in China, a lot of Chinese enterprises are also going aboard to make FDI in other country. The fields that China’s FDI project investments involved are very wide, and the types of enterprise are diversified. When these enterprises go out, they will encounter different sorts of influence factors. This paper will study the influence of background risk on FDI project investments.FDI project investments are influenced by the project risks and background risks together. Project risk refers to any uncertainty associated with the project under consideration; background risk refers to any exogenous uncertainty that impacts the decision maker’s final wealth. There are two kinds of background risk, additive background risk and multiplicative background risk. The interactions between risks are complex, it needs us to analyze it by building a model. Background risk will affect investors’ investment behavior, if investors ignore these risks may lead to a different investment results, so it is important to study the effect of background risk.In previous studies, people often assume risks are independent of each other, but in reality, the background risk tend to have connections with project risk, the correlation will affect FDI project investment behavior of investors. This paper studies how the relations between additive background risks and project risk will affect the investment scale and investment returns, and how the relations between multiplicative background risks and project risk will affect the investment scale and investment returns. In this paper, we build a FDI project investment model which includes both additive and multiplicative background risks, we change the relations between background risks and project risk, then study the impact of background risk. In this paper, we use a wind power company named L-POWER which will make FDI project investment in South Africa as realistic background, study the relations among profits risk of new project, exchange rates and previous commitments. Then use Monte-Carlo method to do simulation calculation, use @Risk software to generate random variables which can represent risks, then analysis the result, get the general conclusion. Study the behavior of investment in this case.When additive or multiplicative background risk comes alone, its different relations with project risk lead to different results. When they come together, we use L-POWER company to do the case study, the relations between exchange rates and profits risk of new project is in a dominant position, and the result is much more complicated. The analysis of investment behavior under different relations will play a guiding role for investors.更多还原