【作者】 郭丹；

【导师】 许培源；

【作者基本信息】 华侨大学 ， 国际贸易学， 2015， 硕士

【摘要】 贸易利益是各国参与国际分工、开展国际贸易的出发点和归宿,也是国际贸易理论研究的三大核心内容之一。出口的国内增加值比重在一定程度上反映了一国通过出口获得贸易利益的大小。本文首先利用非竞争型投入产出模型,选取世界投入产出数据库(WIOD)提供的关于我国1995-2011连续17年的投入产出表进行实证分析,发现尽管中国越来越融合到全球价值链分工中,但出口品尤其是加工贸易出口品中使用了较高比例的国外进口中间品,导致国内增加值的贡献远低于出口总值的增长。本文通过解构出口商品的技术含量分析中国国内增加值的增长源泉。首先,借鉴丁小义、胡双丹(2013)测算一国出口品技术含量的方法,测算出SITC三位码水平下255种商品的技术含量,在此基础上,利用动态分类标准解读中国出口产品结构变化情况;其次,通过研究中国出口贸易技术结构分布、出口贸易整体技术水平变化趋势,以及与主要发达国家对比来立体考察中国出口产品的技术状况;然后,通过动态面板GMM估计方法分析出口技术结构变化与贸易利益增长的关系,得出如下结论:不同技术含量商品出口对中国对外贸易利益的影响效应差异明显,总的说来,中等及中低技术含量产品的出口对中国贸易利益的拉动作用最强,中高等及低等技术含量产品的出口对中国贸易利得拉动作用次之,而高技术含量商品的出口对中国对外贸易增长的拉动作用最小。这说明:1995-2011年间,中国对外贸易利益的增长主要来源于中低端技术含量产品的出口,而高技术产品的优势仍未显现。最后,结合中国出口贸易的现状,本文提出了优化中国出口技术结构升级以实现贸易利益增进的几点建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 Trade benefit is both the starting point and destination for countries to participate in international trade, and is also one of the three core elements of the international trade theory. The proportion of domestic value added to some extent reflects opportunities to get trade benefit. By using of non-competitive input-output model,with 17 consecutive years’ input-output tables of China from WIOD database, the empirical analysis found that, despite Chinese exports increasingly integrated into the global value chain, exports especially processing trade exports contains a higher proportion of imported intermediate goods, which makes it contribution to domestic value added far less than the export growth.To trace the origin of the domestic value added can be achieved by analysis of a country’s technical structure. Based on SITC 3 digital 255 kinds of manufactured export products data, the paper takes advantage of more clear and quantitative calculation method to calculate revealed technological value-added index of manufactured products.Then deconstructs Chinese exports structure by using dynamic classification standard so as to show the evolution of Chinese technology content. By analyzing the distribution of the technical structure of exports, the overall level of technology trends, as well as comparison with other major developed countries to examine the state of Chinese exports. Moreover it analyzes the impact of different technical complexity manufactured export goods on growth of trade benefits through the dynamic panel data model. Results show that effects of different technical goods to Chinese trade benefits is asymmetric. Overall, the medium and low-tech export products to boost Chinese trade interests is the strongest, the higher and low-tech products is in second place, while the role of high-tech goods is minimum.This shows that between 1995-2011, the growth of Chinese trade benefits comes mainly from exports of low-end tech products, and the advantages of high-tech products have not yet been revealed.Finally, this paper puts forward suggestions about promoting Chinese product upgrades in order to achieve more trade benefits.更多还原