【作者】 王娟；

【导师】 何波；

【作者基本信息】 重庆大学 ， 管理科学与工程， 2015， 硕士

【摘要】 在供应链全球化发展的趋势下,供应链网络结构和外部环境日趋复杂,不确定性也逐渐增加。近年来,频发的自然和人为灾难事件对供应链采购、生产和配送活动产生了不同程度的影响。供应链环境的不确定性主要体现在供应商不确定性,制造不确定性和客户需求不确定性上。突发事件可能导致供应中断风险,设备故障可能造成产出不确定,气候变化可能引起市场需求变化。为了抵御供应链环境中诸多不确定风险的影响,下游企业必需做好防范和弥补措施,制定并实施有效的应急策略。采购管理已经成为企业降低风险,提高收益的重要方式。本文从供应中断、产出不确定、成本扰动三个角度研究供应不确定环境下企业的竞争和采购问题。第一种情况,研究了供应中断风险下竞争零售商的采购问题,两个零售商采用最优分配采购策略和紧急采购策略管理风险进行价格竞争。通过比较分析,发现可靠性阈值对零售商的采购决策起重要作用,供应商可以通过批发价影响可靠性阈值进而获得零售商订单。在竞争环境,最优分配采购策略不一定能给零售商带来竞争优势。可靠的供应商在与风险供应商竞争中能够获得溢价,获得的溢价随着风险供应商的可靠性水平提高而减少。第二种情况,研究了在产出不确定和需求不确定相关的情况下,竞争零售商在单源订货和双源订货两种策略下的两阶段博弈模型。产出与需求不确定之间的相关系数和订货成本,对博弈均衡产生关键性影响。研究发现当产出不确定与需求不确定之间的相关系数较大且固定订货成本较低时,双源订货是企业的占优策略,竞争企业都选择双源订货策略构成唯一的纳什均衡。反之,单源订货是企业的占优策略,竞争企业都选择单源订货策略构成唯一的纳什均衡。第三种情况讨论了突发事件导致的制造成本扰动对供应链上的企业造成的影响。研究了在制造成本扰动下两条竞争供应链的Stackelberg博弈模型,比较了有无制造成本扰动两种情形下两条竞争供应链的价格和订货策略。研究发现,只有当扰动成本超过一定的阈值时,调整订货策略才是占优策略,且成本扰动具有鲁棒性。文章分别运用定性和定量方法对三种不确定假设下的企业竞争问题进行研究,分析了供应可靠性、不确定相关系数、成本等要素对不同采购模式和竞争模式的影响。研究所得结论对于面临供应不确定环境下的供应链运营管理有现实意义,能够为供应商和零售商提供决策支持。更多还原

【Abstract】 In the trend of economic globalization, both the external environment and network structure of supply chain are becoming increasingly complex. The enterprises in supply chain will face more and more uncertainty risk. In recent years, natural and man-made disasters are frequent and affect the supply chain procurement, production and distribution activities. The uncertainty of the supply chain mainly includes supply disruption, yield uncertainty and demand uncertainty. We know emergency events may lead to supply disruption, equipment failure may cause the output uncertainty, and climate may changes market demand. In order to resist these risks, the downstream enterprises in supply chain should formulate and implement effective emergency measures. For the enterprise, purchasing management has become an important way to reduce risk and improve profit.In this paper, we investigate procurement strategies in the presence of competition and supply uncertainty. In the first condition, we discuss competing retailers’ procurement strategies in the presence of supply disruption risks. The suppliers make wholesale price first, then two retailers implement the emergency procurement strategy and the optimal allocation procurement strategy to manage supply disruption risks and compete with each other. We find he threshold value is a proxy of supplier’s reliability, which is related to the supplier’s reliability, sales price, underage cost and cost differentials between the two suppliers and plays a critical role in retailer’s procurement decisions. In a competitive environment, the optimal allocation procurement strategy may not bring competitive advantage for retailers. The supplier can influence the threshold value by setting wholesale price so as to get the order. In the second condition, we investigate competing retailers’ outsourcing strategies in the presence of correlated yield and demand uncertainty. Both retailers can choose dual-source procurement strategies or single-source procurement strategies, and they establish a two-stage game theory model. We find both the fixed cost and the correlation between yield and demand uncertainty play a significant impact on game equilibrium. We find dual-source dominates single-source and both retailers use dual-source strategies, if the correlation is relatively high and the fixed cost is low. Otherwise, single-source dominates dual-source and both retailers use single-source strategies. In the third condition, we discuss the impact of cost disruption caused by emergencies on supply chain enterprise。We investigate the problem of stackelberg game in chain-to-chain competition when production costs are disrupted. We compare the pricing and production decisions of both supply chains under production cost disruption with no production cost disruption. And then, we find there is an interval of the disruption cost for both supply chains to keep their decisions unchanged when the disruption occurs. If the cost disruption exceeds the threshold, changing decisions dominates keeping unchanged for retailers.In this paper, we analyze the impact of cost, supplier’s reliability, the correlation between yield and demand uncertainty on competing retailers’ procurement strategies in qualitative and quantitative methods. The results of this paper make great sense for research in future and practice of supply chain management.更多还原