【作者】 王璐；

【导师】 李晨；

【作者基本信息】 中国海洋大学 ， 国际贸易学， 2015， 硕士

【摘要】 海运服务贸易自由化能促进技术进步及资源的充分利用,但过度自由化则有可能阻碍本国弱小企业成长,甚至威胁国家的海运产业安全。从总体来看,海运服务贸易开放度在2008年以前呈上升趋势直到2008年达到1.160%,受金融危机影响,2009年开放度迅速下降到0.885%,之后开始回升,2012年达到0.983%。发达国家海运服务贸易自由化水平基本与世界保持一致；发展中国家在2007年以前高于世界水平,2007年以后基本与世界水平保持一致；中国的海运服务贸易自由化水平自2002年以后均高于各种经济体的平均水平。通过选取37个国家2001-2012年12年的有效数据进行的实证分析表明：对世界来说,如果海运服务贸易开放度增加1个单位,人均GDP就会增加6.32万美元。对发达国家来说,如果海运服务贸易开放度增加1个单位,人均GDP会增加27.08万美元。对发展中国家来说,如果海运服务贸易开放度增加1个单位,人均GDP反而会下降11美元。针对中国数据的时间序列分析表明：中国海运服务贸易自由化,包括进口和出口的自由化,都对经济增长有积极的作用,且LnIM、LnEX、LnSTO均是LnPGDP的格兰杰原因。海运服务贸易自由化主要通过资本积累效应、就业效应和提高资本配置效率三种途径促进经济增长。资本积累效应主要表现在吸引FDI流入和降低海运服务价格。就业效应主要表现在通过商业存在等提供就业岗位以增加就业数量和通过促进熟练劳动力就业和服务业产品流程创新,优化服务业就业结构以提高就业质量。海运服务贸易自由化提高资本配置效率主要通过使各国充分利用世界资源,发挥各自的比较优势,最终带来世界的经济增长。逐步实现海运服务贸易自由化,并有效发挥其促进经济增长的作用,需要各方面共同努力。首先,建立服务贸易法律体系,为海运服务贸易自由化提供法律保障；其次,加强双边及区域性服务贸易合作,参与多边服务贸易合作；再次,实施海运服务贸易逐步开放战略,循序渐进实现自由化；最后,促使海运服务企业改变经营策略,提升自身竞争力；另外,还要充分发挥行业协会的作用。更多还原

【Abstract】 Maritime service trade liberalization can promote technological advances and make full use of resources, but excessive liberalization may hinder the growth of domestic small businesses, and even threat national security of maritime industry. Overall, before 2008, maritime service trade openness was in upward trend and reached 1.160 percent in 2008.Affected by the financial crisis, in 2009, maritime service trade openness faced a rapid decline to 0.885 percent, then began to pick up and reach 0.983 percent in 2012. The level of maritime service trade liberalization in developed countries almost consistent with the world level; And in developing countries it were higher than world level before 2007, and then consistent with the world level; The level of maritime service trade liberalization in China were higher than the average level of the various economies since 2002.Empirical study based on the data of 37 countries from 2001 to 2012 showed that: if maritime service trade openness increase 1 unit, per capital the world would will increase $63200 for world and increase $63200 for developed countries. However, if maritime service trade openness increases 1 unit, per capital will drop $11 in developing countries. The analysis of the time series data of China shows that China’s maritime service trade liberalization, including import and export liberalization, has a positive effect on economic growth, and LnIM, LnEX, LnSTO are all the granger reason of LnPGDP.Maritime service trade liberalization can promote economic growth by ways of capital accumulation effect, employment effect and improving the efficiency of capital allocation. Capital accumulation effect performs in stimulating the FDI inflows and reducing shipping services prices. Employment effect implement by increasing employment quantity and quality. And maritime service trade liberalization can make countries take advantage of world resources and make full use of their comparative advantage, eventually bring the growth of the world economic.It needs the joint efforts of all aspects to gradually achieve maritime service trade liberalization, and effectively play its role to promote economic growth. Firstly, a complementary service trade law system should be established to provide legal guarantee for the liberalization of maritime service trade. Secondly, we should actively participate in regional and multilateral cooperation and trade in services. Thirdly, implement the strategy of liberalization of maritime service trade step by step. Finally, domestic shipping service trade enterprises should try to change the business strategy and improve the service level. In addition, make full use of the industry association of maritime service trade.更多还原