【作者】 宋丽；

【导师】 汤志伟；

【作者基本信息】 电子科技大学 ， 公共管理， 2015， 硕士

【摘要】 人类社会在不断的发展,每天都在发生新的变化,但是随着快速的发展,人类也逐渐面临各类日益频繁的危机,这些危机对人类的生命和财产安全造成了严重的威胁。近几年公共危机事件在我国越加的频繁发生,从2003年广州非典疫情,到2005年吉林化工厂爆炸导致的松花江严重水污染事件,再到2008年的南方雪灾及汶川大地震等天灾或人为的危机事件给我国造成了难以弥补的损失,而在各种公共危机事件中,政府的决策对于危机事态的发展起着举足轻重的作用。公共危机在事发生前一般是没有任何的预兆,政府在处治应对方面也没有现成标准合适的预案可以遵照,在这过程中人们在于时间竞争,与生命赛跑,政府决策者须在尽可能短的时间内做出最有效的决策。然而每个决策者作为一个普通人,在做决策的整个过程中常常会受到多方面因素的影响,如时间压力带来的焦虑和紧迫感、信息的来源真假难辨且信息量少、广大媒体和人民的密切关注、决策者自身的认知能力等多种因素都会影响决策者的决策行为,从而很难在如此复杂的环境下做出最有效的决策。本文在框架效应的基础上对探讨危机信息的外部表征对政府决策行为的影响,并将时间作为整个研究的控制变量,并结合前景理论和有限理性理论运用定性和定量相结合的方式进行研究分析,本文研究思路设计为:(1)有时间压力*框架效应(风险选择框架、属性框架、目标框架)*信息表征(文字,图像)*危机决策问题;(2)无时间压力*框架效应(风险选择框架、属性框架、目标框架)*信息表征(文字,图像)*危机决策问题。调查结果显示,不管是有时间压力还是没有时间压力,当决策信息以文字表述时,决策结果都出现框架效应,但是当决策信息以图片的方式呈现时,在无时间压力下时决策者的决策结果均没有出现框架效应的影响,而在有时间压力下,决策者的决策结果表现出轻微的框架效应。由此可以得到决策者的决策行为不仅受决策时间的影响,还受决策信息的表现形式以的影响。更多还原

【Abstract】 In the development of human society, are the new changes on a daily basis, but with the rapid development of various types of human beings are increasingly faced with the increasingly frequent crises, to human life and property caused a serious threat to human crises many serious threat. In recent years, public crises increasingly frequent occurrence in our country from the 2003 SARS outbreak in Guangzhou, the Songhua River in Jilin serious pollution incident in 2005 led to a chemical plant explosion, and then in 2008 the South snowstorm and earthquake and other natural disasters or man-made crises to our cause irreparable loss, and in a variety of public crisis, the government policy for the development of a crisis situation plays an important role.Public crisis happened before is usually without any warning, the government has also not ready to deal Treatment standards appropriate plans can follow, in this process, it is time to compete with the race of life, government decision-makers shall be as short as possible time to make the most effective decisions. Yet each decision maker as an ordinary person in the whole process of decision making is often influenced by many factors, such as time pressure to bring anxiety and urgency, source of true and false information to the enemy and less information, the majority of close attention to the media and the people, their cognitive ability policymakers and other factors will affect the decision-making behavior of decision makers, making it difficult to make the most effective decisions in such a complex environment.Based on the characterization of framing effects impact on government decision-making behavior to investigate the crisis of external information and time as the control variable throughout the study, combined with the prospect theory and the theory of bounded rationality using a combination of qualitative and quantitative research and analysis methods This paper research ideas designed to:(1) there is time pressure * framing effects(risk selection framework, property framework, the target frame) * Information Representation(text, images) * crisis decision problem;(2) no time pressure * framing effect( risk selection framework, property framework, the target frame) * Information Representation(text, images) * crisis decision-making problems. Survey results show that, whether or not there is time pressure, time pressure, when the decision-making information to the textual representation, the decision results appear framing effect, but when the decision-making information to the picture presented in a way, in the absence of decisions under time pressure decision makers The results did not affect the appearance of framing effects, while under time pressure, decision-makers of the results showed a slight frame effects. Decision makers can be obtained not only influenced by the behavior of the decision-making time, but also by the manifestation of information to influence decision-making.更多还原