【作者】 王波；

【导师】 李电生； 齐洪利；

【作者基本信息】 中国海洋大学 ， 项目管理， 2012， 硕士

【摘要】 自2010年4月17日国务院发布房地产调控以来,国家先后出台多项措施,多管齐下抑制房价过快上涨,调控力度不断加强。在连续不断的调控政策“重拳”作用下,北京、上海、广州、深圳等一线城市房地产市场成交量萎缩,房价也出现松动迹象。房地产业开始走下滑之路,不管从土地成交量、商品房竣工面积还是销售面积都出现了负增长,房地产市场已经不像以前只要是房子就能够卖出去,现在正式地步入了买方市场了。正因为这个原因,从现在起进行房地产开发的企业必须很好的掌握市场的变动态势,从另一方面寻找企业的市场立足点,而做好项目的投资决策便是这一切的起点,决定着一个房地产企业能否在目前的市场环境下生存下来。本次房地产市场的调整短期内对经济稳定增长是带来了较大影响,这次调整是我国房地产业自1998年市场化改革以来,经历的真正市场周期性调整,得到市场的锤炼和洗礼的房地产业将更具竞争力。房地产市场只有充分调整到位,才具备持续、健康发展的基础。而本论文的研究就是在这么一个宏观的环境下进行的。本文选取青岛开发区“江山花园”房地产项目为研究对象,通过对青岛地区宏观经济环境的分析,青岛市房地产市场的分析,以及青岛经济技术开发区当地的目前市场状况和对未来的预测,依据房地产投资风险评价指标体系,通过层次分析法对房地产项目“江山花园”进行投资决策风险评价,得出了影响该项目顺利实施的主要风险因素,针对各种风险的影响程度,制定相应的风险管理措施,最后通过盈亏平衡分析,选出了本项目较优的投资方案。为该房地产开发商未来项目开发中提供较好的经验基础,使得该房地产开发商在未来的房地产开发项目风险管理中朝着规范化的方向发展。通过本文对江山花园项目风险投资管理的研究,希望可以提高房地产开发商的风险投资管理意识,增强风险识别、风险评估和风险应对能力,促使其针对当前房地产行业的不确定性和自身项目的特点,加强风险防范意识,减少风险损失,提高项目的抗风险能力,确保项目获得成功。更多还原

【Abstract】 The government has taken a series of new price-regulating measures to restrain the rapid increasing house prices to an increasingly large degree since April 17th,2010 on which the State Council declared the regulation and control on real estate market. Due to the successive policies of regulation and control, the turnover in real estate market is decreasing in the first-tier cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, accompanied by modest decrease in house prices. Trend of falling appears in the realty business, negative growth covers land sales volume, completed residential areas and floor space of buildings sold. It is never as before when nearly every house could be sold out. Real estate market has turned into a buyer’s market. For this reason, real estate developers from now on must identify the market’s trends and look for the foothold in the market from another point of view. The starting point is to make a good investment decision for a project, which determines whether a real estate enterprise can survive the present market environment or not.The changes in the real estate market had a great influence on the stable increase in economics in a short time and are real periodic market adjustments since the market-oriented reform in realty business in 1998. Strengthened by the market, the realty business will be more competitive. It is after fully preparation that the real estate market can get continuous health development. This is the macro environment for this paper.This paper takes Jiangshan Garden Project in Qingdao Economic and Technical Development Zone as the study object. By analyzing the macro economic environment in Qingdao area, the real estate market in Qingdao and the prsent and future market situation in QETDZ, it makes an investment decision risk assessment of the Jiangshan Garden Project by analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and according to the assessment indicator system. Then it shows the main risk factors in the project, formulates correspongding risk management measures against the influence degrees of every factors. Finally a preferable investment plan is made by way of breakeven analysis, providing better experience for the real estate developer in the future projects and helping the developer go in the direction of standardized risk management.Through the research on investment risk management of Jiangshan Garden Project, this paper could strengthen the risk investment management consciousness of the real estate developers, enhance their ability of risk identification, risk assessment and risk response, and ensure success of their projects.更多还原