【作者】 苏健；

【导师】 米红；

【作者基本信息】 浙江大学 ， 社会保障， 2015， 硕士

【摘要】 在当前人口快速老龄化的大背景下,老年人养老、医疗需求无法得到保障的问题目益凸显。城乡居民社会养老保险与新型农村合作医疗作为保障农村老年人养老、医疗需求的社会保险制度,其保障水平有待进一步提高。为充分发挥两项保险制度保障效果,本论文结合安吉县新农合数据对城居保养老金发放模式进行了深入研究。本论文在科学假设、充分的数据清洗和挖掘的基础上,测算了安吉县城乡居民社会养老保险养老金替代率以及安吉县60周岁以上老年人基本生活支出,评价了城居保养老金保障效果；结合新农合微观数据,测算了安吉县各年龄段老年人医疗费用支出。根据安吉县城居保与新农合微观数据的测算,提出了城居保基础养老金分年龄段发放模式,将城居保基础养老金与老年入基本生活支出挂钩,构建了城居保与新农合待遇动态调整的优化模型,结合安吉县60周岁以上老年人口2015-2025年人口数量预测,对该模型进行了政策仿真,测算出了在该模型下城居保基础养老金发放金额、基础养老金替代率以及政府财政支出,最后得出使用优化模型发放城居保基础养老金能够提高城居保保障效果,同时不会对政府财政支出带来压力。更多还原

【Abstract】 With the rapidity of population aging process, the elderly pension and medical needs are both going increasingly unmet. As the social insurance for protection of rural elderly pension and medical needs, social pension insurance systems for urban and rural residents as well as the new rural cooperative medical care highly need an enhancement. Thus, this research seeks to explore the pattern of retirement pension payment by taking relevant data in Anji. More broadly, I hope to contribute to give full play to both two insurance systems.Based on scientific hypothesis, sufficient data cleaning and strict data selection, this research estimates the replacement rate of social pension insurance system for urban and rural residents in Anji, as well as the basic living expenses of the elderly over 60, and evaluates the effects of social pension insurance system for urban and rural residents. Furthermore, microcosmic data of the new cooperative system are combined to measure medical expenses of elderly of all ages in Anji.This research is guided by above-mentioned evaluation. In doing so, I am directed to construct the model of system optimization under the dynamic adjustment, by linking the basic pension insurance of social system with elementary medical expenses of elderly, on a broader theoretical plane, this research serves as an opportunity to conclude the age-segmented pattern of retirement pension payment. I hope to not only conduct the policy simulation in allusion to the model, in combinations with predictor of aging population quantity over 60 from 2015 to 2020, but also to figure out the basic retirement pension payment, the replacement rate of elementary pension and government expenditure. Finally, it might be tempted to conclude that the effect of social pension insurance system would get improved by using the model of system optimization, taking no risk of exerting pressure upon government expenditure.更多还原