【作者】 张毅；

【导师】 李晓宇； 朱新弟；

【作者基本信息】 华北电力大学 ， 工业工程（专业学位）， 2015， 硕士

【摘要】 负荷预测是电力系统开展电网规划的基础,也是电网研究中十分重要的一项工作。负荷预测是指根据系统的运行特性、增容决策、自然条件与社会影响等诸多因数,在满足一定精度要求的条件下,确定未来某特定时刻的负荷数据。负荷预测对于电力系统的重要性被人们所公认。本文对负荷预测的方法进行了深入的分析和总结,并以创新的思路对义乌电网进行了负荷预测。本文系统地阐述了电力系统负荷预测,并详细地介绍了目前国内外对负荷预测的研究情况和方法,并创新性地提出了运用组合预测法开展负荷预测的思路。结合义乌电网的实际,选取了Logistic模型法、电力弹性系数法和灰色模型法等三种方法,详细介绍了每种方法的基本概念,生成方法,模型建立等理论基础,为进-步开展负荷预测奠定了理论基础。本文创新性的运用组合预测法开展了义乌电网负荷预测,得到了较为满意的结果。本文计算出了义乌电网“十二五”期间各年份负荷数据,为“十二五”期间义乌电网规划和电网建设提供了比较准确的参考基础。更多还原

【Abstract】 As the basis of electric network planning, load forecast is very important work in grid research. Load forecasting is according to the operation characteristics, system capacity, natural conditions and social influence and so on, In certain conditions, determine the load data of a specific point in the future. Load forecasting of power system for the importance of people have been recognized. This paper has conducted in-depth analysis and summary on the method of load forecast, and innovative ideas to Yiwu grid load forecasting.This paper systematically elaborate the work of load forecast in power system, introduce the last load forecast research situation both inland and oversea, have good mastery of most newly emerged information and knowledge in this field. And puts forward the innovative use of weighted comprehensive prediction method in the load forecasting idea. According to the actual situation of Yiwu power grid, select the Logistic model method, electricity elasticity coefficient method and gray model method of three methods, detailed introduces the basic concept, each method generating method, model building theories, which lay a theoretical foundation for the further development of load forecasting. The use of weighted comprehensive prediction method this paper creatively carried out the Yiwu power grid load forecast,the result is satisfied.This paper calculated the "Twelfth Five Year Plan" period of Yiwu power grid load data of each year, the reference is provided more accurate as" The Twelfth Five-Year Guideline" period of Yiwu power grid planning and construction of power grid.更多还原