【作者】 田锋；

【导师】 刘自发；

【作者基本信息】 华北电力大学 ， 电气工程（专业学位）， 2015， 硕士

【摘要】 随着电力设施可靠性管理不断发展,为有效分析电网可靠性水平,优化可靠性评价模型,国家电网公司在输变电设施可靠性管理的基础上,引入“回路”概念,建立回路停运组合模型,通过对不同功能回路的划分,结合数理统计的方法定量地反映电网不同断面的状态,并利用输变电可靠性管理系统对电网停运事件进行综合统计评价,逐步形成了面向电网的输变电系统可靠性。本文首先收集了国内外电力可靠性发展现状,在元件停运模型的基础上分析了元件可靠性评估参数及统计分析指标,指出元件可靠性与回路可靠性在评估参数间的关系,建立了基于回路的电网可靠性停运模型并明确可靠性评估所需参数和统计指标。其次通过对电网故障元件模型、负荷模型、运行方式、故障选取方法进行分析,综合解析法和模拟法从充裕度和安全性两个方面建立电网可靠性评估模型,明确所需参数并规定计算方法。最后以宁东电网为例,在对电网正常运行潮流计算的基础上对电网系统可靠性进行评估,分析了宁东电网在电网结构、设备管理及运行管理等方面存在的薄弱环节,并从技术措施和管理措施两个维度提出具体解决方法。通过研究发现,随着社会经济的发展,电网投资不断增加,电网规模不断增大,还需进一步对电网安全性进行分析,本次研究结果不足以详细论述电网可靠性的模型、算法与应用,但可得出一些初步的并与生产相结合的对策,用以提高电网运行中的可靠性。更多还原

【Abstract】 With the constant development of reliability management for power facilities, the State Grid Corporation has introduced the concept of loop on the basis of reliability management of power transmission and transformation equipment so as to effectively analyze the reliability of power grid and optimize the mode of reliability evaluation. The loop outage combination model has also been built accordingly. By classifying different functional loops and combining with the mathematical statistics, it can reflect the status of different sections of power grid. The reliability management system of power transmission and transformation has been used to evaluate the outage events comprehensively. Hence, the reliability of power transmission and transformation oriented to the power grid will be formed by degrees.After collecting the material related to the development status of power reliability abroad, this thesis has analyzed the component-reliability evaluation parameter and statistical analysis index based on the component outage model. It has also pointed out the relationship between component reliability and loop reliability in terms of evaluation index. The loop-based power-grid reliability outage model has been built to determine the parameters and statistical index for reliability evaluation.By analyzing the power-grid breakdown component model, load model, operation mode and breakdown selection method, this thesis has employed the comprehensive analysis and simulated analysis to build the reliability evaluation model from the perspective of adequacy and security. The parameters needed are determined while the calculation method is also defined.By taking Ningdong Power Grid as an example, this thesis has evaluated the reliability of power system on the basis of normal operation flow calculation. In addition, this thesis has analyzed the weakness in the power structure, equipment management and operation management. In terms of technical measure and management measure, it has also proposed some feasible solutions.It is found that the power grid has kept expanding with the development of social economy and growing investment, which makes it necessary to analyze the security of power grid. Although this thesis can not exhaust the model, algorithm and application of power-grid reliability, it can still offer some countermeasures suited to the production, thus improving the reliability of power-grid operation.更多还原