【作者】 张涛；

【导师】 谢金宝；

【作者基本信息】 兰州交通大学 ， 交通运输规划与管理， 2015， 硕士

【摘要】 为了及时有效地抢救灾区人民的生命和财产,降低灾害造成的巨大损失,保障人民生活的正常进行,建立与研究适于我国国情的应急物流体系已刻不容缓了。而作为应急物流环节中最关键的一个环节的应急物资调配,关系到应急物资能否准确、高效地被运输到受灾点,同时也往往关系到救援工作的成败与否。因此研究重灾区的应急物资调配问题意义重大。论文通过汇总国内外对应急物流领域研究的相关文献资料,明确了研究应急物流具有重大实践意义,论述了应急物流与普通物流的区别;强调应急物流系统具有不确定性、弱成本性等特点,运用物流工程学和管理运筹学的相关理论,在“强时效性、弱经济性”的指导下,基于应急物流系统,将应急物资调配问题作为核心进行研究。论文主要做的研究工作如下:1.介绍了应急物资需求预测基础理论,在考虑灾区信息不确定的条件下,引入基于CBR技术的应急物资需求预测模型;通过应用该模型准确、高效地预测受灾点的应急物资需求量。最后取得的预测结果令人满意,为进行应急物资调配提供研究基础;2.考虑到应急救援初期灾区环境存在诸如信息严重缺失和道路塌陷等不确定性因素,以应急时间的不确定性来表示这些影响因素,然后通过引入区间数数学理论来表示应急时间的不确定性。在多资源连续消耗的多出救点系统下,建立以应急开始时间最早的多资源应急物资调配模型;3.在时间确定的条件下,考虑道路网中各个路段对应急物资调配的影响,分别建立了多出救点、单受灾点的应急时间最小、应急物资流量最大的多目标调配模型和多出救点、多受灾点的应急时间最小、应急成本最小的应急物资车辆路径—调配模型,在模型的求解中,使用了Dijkstra和Floyd算法以及变式的最小费用最大流算法对模型进行求解;4.使用Matlab工具对算法进行编程,并将研究理论运用于算例分析之中,验证了论文中所建模型的有效性和算法效率具有的高效性,使应急物资调配更加高效而准确的进行。更多还原

【Abstract】 In order to rescue the affected people’s lives and property effectively and timely, reduce the losses caused by the disasters and safeguard the people’s normal life, it has been pressing task to establish and research the emergency logistics system, which suit the China’s national conditions. As the most critical aspect of the emergency logistics, not only is it important for transporting the deployment of emergency supplies accurately and efficiently to the affected areas, but also it is important to rescue work. So, it is significant to research the deployment of emergency supplies about the hardest hit.With summarizing the relevant literature about the field of domestic and foreign emergency logistics, there is a clearly and greatly practical significance to research the emergency logistics and this paper discourses the differences between emergency logistics and general logistics. Emphasizing the uncertainty, weak economy and other characteristics of the emergency logistics, and using the relevant theories of logistics and operational research, it researches the deployment of emergency supplies with basing on the emergency logistics’ system of the strong timeliness and weak economy.The research works have done as follows:1.Introducing the basic theories of demand forecasting on the emergency supplies and considering the conditions of uncertainty about the disaster information, it uses the tool of CBR to forecast the demand of emergency supplies and proposes the demand forecasting model of emergency supplies. It also uses the model to forecast the demand of emergency supplies accurately and efficiently. Finally, the result is satisfactory and it provides a foundation for researching the deployment of emergency supplies.2.It considers the existence of uncertain factors during emergency rescue, such as a serious lack of information and collapsing roads. and These influence factors are represented by the uncertainty of emergency response time. In addition, it proposes the mathematical theory of interval-number to represent the uncertainty of emergency response time. Under the conditions of the continuous consume system of multi-resource and multi-depot, It constructs the model of deploying emergency supplies with the earliest action start time.3.Considering the condition of deterministic time and the impact of each section of road networks on the deployment of emergency supplies, it,firstly,constructs the deployment of multi-objective model of the emergency time and the flow of emergency resources based on the multi-depot and a single demand point. Secondly, it also constructs the deployment of multi-objective model of the emergency materials vehicle routing problem with multi-depot and multiple demand point based on the minimum of emergency time and emergency costs. Finally, it uses the Dijkstra algorithm, Floyd algorithm and the min-cost and max-flow algorithm to solve models.4.Using the tool of Matlab to program and applying research theories into numerical examples, it verifies the validity of models and the high efficiency of algorithms, so that the deployment of emergency supplies becomes more efficient and accurate.更多还原