【作者】 李宏伟；

【导师】 刘建兵；

【作者基本信息】 江西理工大学 ， 建筑与土木工程， 2015， 硕士

【摘要】 铁路工程项目具有建设周期长、施工环境复杂、技术复杂、耗资巨大、参与主体众多等特点。随着高铁、动车等铁路运行需求的加大,近年来铁路建设投资、工期、质量压力日益增大,使得铁路工程面临更大的风险。铁路工程进度风险管理作为铁路项目管理的重要组成部分,其管理的好坏直接关系到项目能否按预期的成本、质量和工期交付使用。风险可能带来损失,也可能带来收益,关键取决于风险管理、控制是否得当。实践表明,有效科学的进度风险管理是铁路工程项目顺利进展,达到施工管理乃至项目管理目标的重要前提之一。通过广泛查阅近年来国内外铁路工程风险管理以及进度风险相关文献,本文首先详细介绍了风险的概念和类型,并对铁路工程建设项目进度风险的特征及其影响进行了系统的分析。在分析进度风险管理过程中,分别对风险识别、风险估计、风险评价的常用技术方及具体流程法进行了详细对比分析,据此有针对性的给出应对铁路工程进度风险的对策。通过引入影响时间T来确认或剔除风险因素,得出合理可靠的风险因素集合,进而运用计划评审技术对铁路工程完工概率及项目总进度风险进行了估算。本文将铁路工程项目进度风险因素划分为自然风险因素、技术风险因素和非技术风险因素三大类,根据铁路工程风险信息流动性、变化性、模糊性的特征构建出风险评价指标体系,运用层次分析法进行了两级权重的计算。通过分析常用的风险管理方法的不足,提出了基于层次分析的模糊综合评价模型,结合“广清城际铁路工程施工项目”的风险管理实例进行定量分析。得出了较为合理的模糊综合评价结果,验证了模糊层次分析法在铁路工程进度风险管理中的适用性。最后,根据广清城际铁路施工项目的风险评价结果,针对项目的自然风险因素、技术风险因素和非技术风险因素中各具体的子风险因素分别提出了具体的风控措施。本文运用模糊层次分析法对铁路工程项目进度风险管理进行了较为系统的定性和定量分析,能够为我国铁路项目的进度风险管理提供较为可靠的技术参考,提升铁路建设水平,节约社会资源。更多还原

【Abstract】 Railway engineering project has many characteristics, such as long construction cycle, complex construction environment, complex technology, huge wasting assets, and many involved parties and so on. With the increase demands on high-speed rail, moving vehicles, and other railway operation, the railway construction investment, schedule, quality pressure are increasing in recent years, which makes the railway project face with greater risk. As an important part of the railway project management, the schedule risk management of railway project directly affects the result whether the project can be completed according to expected cost, quality and schedule. Risks may result in losses and bring benefits, the key is decided by the result whether it can properly deal with the risk management and control. Practice shows that the effective and scientific progress risk management is one important prerequisite to ensure the engineering project can progress smoothly, achieve the goals of construction management as well as project management.Through consulting a large number of relevant literatures both at home and abroad, the article first introduces the definition and classification of risk, analyzes the characteristics and its impact of project schedule risk of railway construction, introduces general processes of risk identification, risk assessment, risk assessment and risk countermeasures in progress risk management, and analyzes the main technical requirements for each procedure. In the process of risk identification, besides indirect data acquisition, similar project analogy and other traditional methods to collect information, this paper comprehensively uses brainstorming, Feld method and other methods to conduct data collection and collation. By introducing affecting time T, this paper can determine the existence of risk factors, improve the collection of risk factors, and carry out estimate calculation on railway project completion probability and total schedule risk with PERT.This paper divides the railway project schedule risk factors into natural risk factors, technical risk factors and non-technical risk factors total three categories, builds a risk evaluation index system, through considering the liquidity, uncertainty and fuzziness of the construction project risk information, carries out estimate calculation on two-level weight with Analytic Hierarchy Process. Through comparative analysis of several commonly used risk assessment methods, this paper releases a fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model based on AHP, and carries out a quantitative analysis on Guangqing intercity rail engineering construction project based on this model. It achieves the results of the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation for the project, and gives out the evaluation conclusion.Finally, based on risk assessment results of Guangqing intercity rail construction project, this paper gives out the counter measures for the different risks for the sub risk factors of natural risk factors, technical risk factors and non-technical risk factors in the project.This paper carries out a more systematic study on the progress risk of railway engineering construction project, which can provide a reference for China’s railway project schedule management, so as to enhance the level of railway construction, and save social resources.更多还原