【作者】 张帆；

【导师】 刘慧芳；

【作者基本信息】 中国地质大学(北京) ， 应用经济学， 2015， 硕士

【摘要】 中国和美国都是世界贸易大国,中美对外贸易在中国和美国的经济中占有重要地位,2009年以来中美贸易在两国对外贸易中的比重均超过12%,因此中美贸易一直是学术界关注和研究的焦点。现有成果较多关注于中美贸易失衡、中美贸易摩擦等问题,在中美贸易对经济增长影响的研究中往往只将进口总量、出口总量作为研究对象,而不同类别商品的进出口对经济的影响是不同的。本文在对进出口商品进行分类的基础上,全面地研究中美双边贸易对两国经济的影响,为中美贸易的互利共赢、促进两国经济发展提供政策建议。本文选择联合国货物贸易数据库中国际贸易标准(SITC)分类下的数据,再将商品分为自然资源密集型、资本和技术密集型、劳动力密集型三大类。文章定量研究了中美贸易现状,并借助计量经济模型分析方法,研究贸易对经济增长的贡献大小;利用比较分析法对比中美两国贸易现状及其对两国经济发展的影响。首先,文章分析了中美贸易现状,研究发现中国近二十年来平均对外贸易依存度为45%,中国的对外贸易依存度、进口依存度、出口依存度均高于美国。中美两国在进出口商品结构上存在差异,而机械及运输设备类商品在两国进出口比重都是最高的,且该类商品也是中美贸易中占比最高的。其次,建立计量经济模型,分析三大类商品的进出口分别对中美经济增长的贡献,结论表明中国从美国进口自然资源密集型、资本和技术密集型产品,对美国出口资本和技术密集型、劳动力密集型产品对中国经济增长具有显著的正向效应;美国从中国进口及出口资本和技术密集型、劳动力密集型产品均对美国经济增长有显著的正向效应。然后研究中美贸易对就业和居民消费的带动作用;最后研究中美相互直接投资对两国经济的贡献。其产生的原因在于中美促进对外贸易的政策激励以及中美两国资源禀赋存在差异、两国贸易具有互补性特点和国际产业转移的有利环境等。最后,文章提出了进一步促进中国经济发展的建议,包括扩大内需、重视进口、促进出口市场多元化、调整产业结构等;同时建议美国正视中美贸易为其经济发展的作出的重大贡献,为今后中美贸易的发展提供良好的政策环境。更多还原

【Abstract】 Both China and the United States are important trading countries in the globe, so that Sino-US trade is of great significance to the national economy of the both countries. And from 2009, the proportion of the bilateral trade between China and the United States accounts for more than 12% in the total trade value of these two countries. Therefore, issues of the Sino-US trade have always been the academic concern and research topic. While the existing researches mainly focus on the discussions of imbalance or friction of Sino-US trade, and the studies of discussing the contribution of Sino-US trade to accelerate the economy of the both countries majorly set research objects as total quantity of export or import, ignoring that different categories of goods effect economy in different ways. And this paper studies the impact of bilateral trade to the both countries on the basis of classifying the import and export goods, in order to raise recommendations to promote the mutual development and shared benefits.This paper chooses the data under the Standard International Trade Classification from the UN comtrade database and classifies the goods into three categories of resource-intensive, capital and technology intensive, and labor-intensive. The paper makes a quantitative research of the current situation of Sino-US trade, applies the method of economic model to analyze the contribution of bilateral trade to the acceleration of economy, and utilize the method of comparative analysis to study the current trade situation between China and America and its impact on the economic development of the two countries.Firstly, the article analyzes the present Sino-US trade situation. And the study discovers that the ratio of dependence on foreign trade has been averagely 45% over the past twenty years, in which all foreign dependence degree, import dependence degree and export dependence degree have been exceeded that of America. And also there is difference between China and America in import and export commodity structures, in which the machinery and transport equipments account the most proportions in bilateral trade.Secondly, this paper establishes the econometric model to analyze the respective contribution of the three categories of commodity import and export to the economic growth of China and America. And the result shows both that importing natural resource intensive products and capital technology intensive products from America to China and the exporting capital technology intensive and labor intensive products from China to America have significant positive effect, acting a leading role in promote employment and consumption. The causes lie in the policy incentives, the differences in natural resources between the two countries, the complementary characteristics and the favorable environment of international industrial transfer.And finally, the article puts forward suggestions for promoting further development of China economy, including expanding domestic demand, attaching importance to import, enhancing additional value of export commodities, etc.. Furthermore, the author also advices the American government faces the significant contribution done by Sino-US trade to its economic growth objectively, so that further Sino-US trade can be provided a favorable policy environment.更多还原