【作者】 李琳；

【导师】 吴鑫淼；

【作者基本信息】 河北农业大学 ， 水利水电工程， 2015， 硕士

【摘要】 水是人类赖以生存且不可替代的重要物质资源和自然资源,也是不可替代的生态环境资源,影响着社会财富的创造和生活的质量。为了改善水资源的浪费巨大、水利用效率较低、水资源开发过度等严重突出的水问题,我国2011年发布了“中央一号文件”,明确要求实行最严格水资源管理制度,确立了水资源开发利用总量、用水效率以及水功能区限制纳污的“三条红线”,从制度上推动人水和谐。要缓解区域水资源的短缺与经济社会发展之间的矛盾,保障有限的水资源能够实现社会效益、经济效益和生态环境效益多赢,对区域的水资源进行优化配置是十分必要的。本文以最严格水资源管理制度的核心——“三条红线”为出发点,将改进遗传算法应用于对区域水资源的多目标和谐优化配置研究中,并以张家口市为例进行分析,旨在使依赖于水资源的区域发展更加和谐。为此,论文主要做了如下内容的研究:(1)最严格水资源管理制度的核心——“三条红线”与人水和谐的内涵的阐述,以及在区域水资源优化配置中考虑二者的现实价值和意义。(2)以2010年作为现状水平年,将张家口市经济社会发展政策、规划同“三条红线”相结合,预测张家口市近期、中期规划年(2015年、2020年)社会经济发展指标;结合发展指标预测成果,采用定额法、指标法和指数模型预测法对各个规划的水平年张家口市经济社会发展需水量进行预测;对张家口市不同规划水平年的水资源分别进行供需平衡分析。(3)基于人水和谐的基本思想,分别建立了以区域经济、社会和环境综合效益最大为目标的3个目标函数;根据目标函数建立相应的约束条件,并在水源供水量与污染物排放量两项约束条件中考虑了“三条红线”指标的限制。建立的目标函数与约束条件构成了优化配置模型。(4)针对水资源配置优化模型含有多个约束条件,采用带有精英保留策略的快速非支配分层排序算法(NSGA-II算法)不能处理约束条件对优化过程控制的作用而影响计算效率的问题,提出应用能够处理含有约束条件控制的多目标优化问题的改进算法GNSGA-II(分组非劣排序选择算法)对区域的水资源配置模型进行求解。(5)针对基于GNSGA-II算法的区域水资源优化的实现过程中,用实际分配水量编码会导致遗传个体不能满足水源供水总量要求的问题,提出了采用配水系数进行染色体编码的方法;由于算法每一代种群的产生都具有随机性,采用配水系数进行染色体编码只能使初始种群满足要求,因此通过对配水系数作归一化处理来保证每一代遗传个体都能满足水源供水量的要求。(6)区域发展需要人水和谐、统筹兼顾,多目标水资源优化配置模型的各目标间存在不可公度性,能协调各用水户的需水要求,但是难以量化生态环境需用水情况,因此本文采用在不同生态环境需水满足度下,对研究区域规划水平年的水资源进行多目标优化配置。(7)在传统水资源优化配置只对非劣解集的典型方案进行定性分析的基础上,对典型方案作了定量分析,即和谐度分析。参照已有的人水和谐量化方法研究成果,对不同生态环境需水满足度下的典型方案进行定量的和谐度计算分析,目标层与准则层的和谐度值均较高的典型配置方案可作为区域实施最严格水资源管理的参考依据。更多还原

【Abstract】 Water is the human survival and irreplaceable important material resources and natural resources, is also an irreplaceable ecological environmental resources, affects the creation of social wealth and the quality of life. In order to improve the seriously prominent problems of water, such that the water resources waste huge, low efficiency of water use, over exploitation of water resources etc, our country in 2011 issued a "central file no. 1", has been explicitly requested to implement the most stringent water resources management system, established the total utilization of water resources development, water efficiency and water pollutant limits functional areas of the "three red lines". Promote regional harmony between human and water from the system.To alleviate the contradiction between the shortage of water resources and the development of modern economic societies, and to make the limited water resources meet the social benefit,economic benefit and ecological benefit, for optimal allocation of regional water resources is very necessary. In this paper, the most stringent water resources management system’s core- "three red lines" as a starting point, the improved genetic algorithm is applied to research on multi-objective harmony optimal allocation of the regional water resources,and a case study of Zhangjiakou, aimed at making the regional development of water resources more harmonious. Therefore, this thesis mainly studies the following contents:(1) Elaborating the connotation of "Three Line" and considering their practical value and significance in the regional water resources optimal allocation.(2) The year of 2010 was Selected as the present situation level year,combining the policy and planning of economic and social development with "three line" to forecast the economic development index of recently and medium-term planning years(2015,2010);In combination with the economic development index, to forecast economic and social development’s water demand of each planning level years by the method of norm method and the index model; Water resources supply and demand balance was analyzed respectively in different planning level years of Zhangjiakou(3) Establishment the regional water resources optimal allocation model. Based on the basic thoughts of the people and water in harmony, to regional comprehensive economic,social and environmental benefits as the target of three objective functions; According to the objective function to establish the corresponding constraint conditions, and the watersupply water supply and pollution emissions two constraints are considered in the "three line" indicators. The regional water resources optimal allocation model are established by objective functions and constraint condition.(4) To optimize the allocation of water resources with multiple constraints, with elite reserved strategy is used fast non dominated sorting algorithm(NSGA II) cannot handle constraints in optimization of process control and affect the calculation efficiency problem,put forward the application to a multi-objective optimization problem with constraint conditions are dealt with the improved algorithm of GNSGA- II(branch not bad order selection algorithm) to optimize the regional water resources allocation model.(5) Algorithms based on GNSGA- II in the process of implementation of the regional water resources optimization, in view of the allocation of water use value coding can lead to genetic individual can not meet the requirement of the total water supply problem, puts forward the water distribution coefficient is adopted to improve the chromosome coding method; Due to the randomness of each generation of population, water distribution coefficient is adopted to improve the chromosome coding can be to meet the requirements of initial population, so by water distribution coefficient to make normalized processing to ensure that each generation of genetic individuals can meet the requirements of water supply water supply.(6) Regional development needs human-water harmony and balanced,incommensurability exists between the target of multi-objective harmony optimal allocation of water resources,, water can coordinate water users’ requirement, but it’s difficult to quantify the use of water demand of ecological environment, so in this paper,under the different ecological and environmental water requirement satisfaction condition study on multi-objective optimal allocation of water resources in different levels.(7) In the traditional water resources allocation,the typical scheme of the non inferior solution was only made qualitative analysis, In this paper which is made quantitative analysis, namely the harmonious degree of analysis, with reference to human-water harmony quantitative methods of the existing research results, choose the typical schemes under different satisfaction to make quantitatively the harmonious degree of calculation and analysis, meet the requirements of the optimal allocation of high degree of the harmonious solution can provide a reference basis for the region to implement the most stringent water resources management.更多还原