【作者】 刘艳萍；

【导师】 颜波；

【作者基本信息】 华南理工大学 ， 物流工程与管理， 2015， 硕士

【摘要】 随着越来越多的消费者选择在网上购物,电子商务得到了长足的发展。然而,传统销售渠道特有的优势使得其在短时期内无法被完全取代。因此,线上和线下双渠道共同运营的销售方式成为众多供应商在激烈的市场竞争中抢夺市场份额、吸引顾客资源的有效手段。而且,面对越来越多的大型零售商逐渐取代供应商的强势地位成为供应链中的主导者,开辟直销渠道也成为弱势供应商摆脱零售商控制的有效方法。突发事件的发生会加剧市场需求的不确定性风险,而不同成员主导的双渠道供应链本身的复杂性使得其在遇到突发事件时会产生更为严重的后果。加上在现实中,大部分管理者是风险规避的,其对待风险的态度会反映到决策中去。尤其是作为主导的管理者的风险规避态度会影响到整条供应链的决策。因此研究不同权力结构的具有风险规避特性的双渠道供应链如何应对需求扰动是十分必要和有实际价值的。本文分别建立数学模型研究风险规避型集权决策模式双渠道供应链、风险规避型供应商主导和风险规避型零售商主导的分权决策模式双渠道供应链,通过求解三种模式下供应链管理者最大效用的Karush-Kuhn-Tucker(KKT)条件,得到其在稳态下和需求发生扰动时的最优决策,同时对扰动前后的情况进行对比分析。并建立改进的收益共享契约对分权决策模式下的双渠道供应链进行协调。研究得出的主要结论有:三种模式的最优总生产量都具有鲁棒性,存在稳健区间使需求扰动时系统无需调整生产计划;需求发生扰动时,链中的最优定价和最优销量分配需要调整的量均为需求扰动量的线性函数;风险规避态度对链中最优决策的影响在需求扰动前后相同;当扰动幅度在稳健区间内时,两条渠道的销量稳定性相同,否则,稳定性大小与渠道所占的市场份额有关;链中决策者知道需求扰动的价值与需求扰动量、扰动成本因子和风险规避系数密切相关;改进的收益共享契约可以协调分权模式下的供应链,且需求扰动后的协调批发价格均可以在扰动前的协调批发价格的基础上得到。本文的研究成果可以为双渠道供应链应对需求扰动提供决策指导和理论支持,使供应链管理者在激烈而动荡的环境中面对需求扰动时能够及时采取恰当的应对措施,从而时刻保持供应链的稳定运行和绩效最优。更多还原

【Abstract】 An increasing number of customers choose to shop on-line, which promotes the development of e-commerce. However, the intrinsic advantages of traditional sales channel protect itself from being replaced completely in a short run. As a consequence, many suppliers choose to sale online and offline simultaneously to fight for market shares and attract customers. Facing more and more large retailers to replace the suppliers’ strong position to become leaders in the supply chain gradually, direct sales channel has become an effective method for weak suppliers to get rid of the retailer’s control.The uncertainty of market demand is getting stronger due to the fierce market competition. It will also be intensified by emergencies. And, the complexity of the supply chain with dual-channel that is dominated by different channel members will cause more severe consequences. Additionally, in reality, most managers are risk-averse, their attitude to risk will be reflected in the decision. Especially, the risk attitude of the dominant will impact the decisions of the whole supply chain. Therefore, it is necessary and valuable to research the response measures of demand disruption in the dual-channel supply chain with different power structures and risk preference.Based on above reasons, three mathematical models classified the risk-averse dual-channel supply chain into three categories according to decision maker are built, i.e. centralized decision making, decentralized decision making dominated by risk-averse suppliers and decentralized decision making dominated by risk-averse by retailers. By solving the Karush-Kuhn-Tucker(KKT) conditions of supply chain manager’s maximum utility in each pattern, the optimal decisions before and after demand disruption are obtained. At the same time, we compare the decisions before and after demand disruption, and analyze the relationship with channel market share, the risk aversion coefficient of decision makers and the demand disturbance quantity. In the same time, the improved revenue sharing contract is established in order to coordinate the decentralized decision making mode of dual channel supply chain.The main conclusions of the study are: the optimal total production of the three models has robustness, within a steady range, the initial optimal production plan will not change, but different measures should be taken based on the market share of the two channels and the disruption degree when the disturbance is out of the steady range. The optimal pricing and the optimal distribution of sales need to adjust when the demand is disrupted is the linear function of the amount of the demand disturbances. And the effect on every variable of the coefficient of risk aversion will not change before and after the demand is disrupted. The sales stability of two channels is the same when the disturbance amplitude in steady range, otherwise, the sales stability is related to the channel of the market share. In addition, for the decision makers, the value of knowing the demand disturbances is closely related to the demand disturbance, the cost factor of disturbance and the risk aversion coefficient. The improved revenue sharing contract can coordinate the decentralized mode of supply chain, and the optimal coordination wholesale price when the demand is disrupted can be achieved on the basis of the optimal coordination wholesale price of the stable environment.These research results can provide theoretical foundation and decision-making guidance for dealing with demand disruption in dual-channel supply chain, which ensure supply chain managers take timely and appropriate measures under fierce and turbulent circumstances to keep the entire supply chain system operate well and performance optimal in any time.更多还原