【作者】 李明；

【导师】 安辉；

【作者基本信息】 大连理工大学 ， 金融学， 2014， 硕士

【摘要】 在次贷危机爆发、蔓延和治理的过程中,美元流动性的不断变化很好的诠释了美国货币政策的调整过程。进入后危机时代,美联储虽然宣布将有步骤的退出“量化宽松”的货币政策,但仍继续释放美元流动性,这直接导致了全球流动性泛滥并通过国际大宗商品价格、跨境资金流动以及货币扩张等多个渠道给以我国为代表的新兴市场带了输入性通货膨胀的压力。因此,中国政府应制定相关政策措施,抵御美元流动性泛滥带来的输入性通货膨胀。另一方面,随着我国对外开放程度及经济对外依存度的日益增大,国内通货膨胀受到外来因素影响的程度也日益显著。因此,针对美国货币政策变动对中国输入性通货膨胀传导渠道及影响的分析,已经成为当前我国刻不容缓的重大议题之一。本文采用理论分析与实证分析相结合的研究方法,对美国货币政策变动对我国输入性通货膨胀的影响进行深入研究。本文首先对基础理论进行阐述,基于M-F-D模型分析了输入性通货膨胀的机理,并通过典型化事实分析了输入性通货膨胀的传导途径,即成本推动渠道、资金输入渠道及货币扩张渠道,为下文实证分析奠定基础。其次,本文实证分析分为两个部分,第一部分从单一视角出发,通过构建不同渠道的SVAR模型对美国货币政策变动对中国输入性通货膨胀的影响进行分析；第二部分则从多个视角出发,通过单一FAVAR模型对多个渠道的影响进行分析。研究结果表明：第一,基于SVAR模型的分析可知,美国货币政策变动通过成本推动渠道、资金输入渠道和货币扩张渠道对中国输入性通货膨胀的影响非常显著,但也存在差异。第二,基于FAVAR模型的分析可知,美国货币政策的不同指标对中国输入性通货膨胀的影响存在显著的差异,且美国货币政策变动通过不同渠道对中国通货膨胀影响的显著性也存在差别。因此,在当前国际形势下,应对美国货币政策变化施加以更多的关注,在货币政策的制定过程中,考虑更多的因素,才能更加有效地解决输入性通货膨胀的难题。更多还原

【Abstract】 The change of dollar liquidity did a good interpretation for the adjustment of U.S. monetary policy during the process of U.S. subprime mortgage crisis outbreak, spread and governance. When it comes to post-crisis era, the Fed announced it would quit the monetary policy of "quantitative easing" step by step, however, keep on releasing the dollar liquidity, which leads to excessive global liquidity and put imported inflationary pressure on the emerging markets represented by our country through channels of cost-push, capital input and monetary expansion etc. Therefore, the Chinese government should respond with relevant regulatory policy to resist imported inflation caused by external liquidity shocks. On the other hand, with the increasing degree of opening up and external dependence, domestic inflation is increasingly affected by external shock. Therefore, Analysis the influence of U.S. monetary policy change on transmission channels and influence to Chinese imported inflation has become a major issue to explore. This paper studies the influence of U.S. monetary policy change on Chinese imported inflation by combining theoretical and empirical analysis.Firstly, this paper elaborates on the basic theories, and then analysis of imported inflation theories based on M-F-D models, and the Transmission Channel of imported inflation by stylized facts, namely, channels of cost-push, capital input and monetary expansion, to lay a theoretical foundation for the following empirical analysis. Secondly, empirical analysis is divided into two parts, the first part from a single perspective, analyzing the influence of US monetary policy change on the Chinese imported inflation by building different channels of SVAR model. The second part from multiple perspectives, analyzing the impact on multiple channels by single FAVAR model.To sum up, first, based on the analysis of SVAR-model, the change of U.S. monetary policy significantly impacts on Chinese imported inflation through the channels of cost-push, capital input and monetary expansion, but the influence of various channels is different. Second, based on the analysis of FAVAR model, there is big difference between the influences of the various U.S. monetary policy indicators on Chinese imported inflation. Moreover, the change of U.S. monetary policy impacts on Chinese imported inflation through various channels is also different to some extent. Therefore, under the current international economic situation, to address the problem of imported inflation timely and effectively, China needs to pay more attention to the change of U.S. monetary policy, and consider more factors during the process of setting monetary policy.更多还原