【作者】 王冬；

【导师】 欧进萍；

【作者基本信息】 大连理工大学 ， 土木工程管理， 2014， 硕士

【摘要】 地震灾害给我国各类建筑物造成了十分严重的破坏,不仅产生了巨额的经济损失,还造成了很多极为严重的社会问题。随着我国经济的快速发展和对外开放程度的日益加深,这种影响越来越显著。以往我国地震灾害的补偿资金多由政府提供,覆盖面小且效率不高,而且给国家财政造成了极大困扰,因此我国应该积极借鉴国际上采用地震保险分担地震损失的做法来对地震风险进行有效的分担和转移。为了使我国尽早推进地震保险,研究如何合理厘定地震保险费和费率,以及如何制定较为合理的地震保险制度极具现实意义。本文对我国城市建筑的地震保险管理进行了较为系统地研究,主要内容包括：(1)对我国城市建筑进行地震风险分析。城市群体建筑的风险分析分为传统的风险分析方法和基于地震损失估计概率模型的分析方法。本文对传统方法中的地震危险性分析进行了改进；对各个成熟的地震损失估计概率模型的操作机理及主要输出进行充分研究。在地震风险分析的基础上得到损失估计结果,作为厘定保险费和费率的基础。(2)对城市建筑的地震保险费及费率的厘定进行研究。对地震可保性以及地震保险的意义进行探讨；给出各类地震保费和费率的定义及厘定方法,其中结合改进的传统地震风险分析方法进行各类保险费及费率的厘定,提出了实用的修正方法,以使现有的风险分析结果的精度满足保费和费率的厘定要求,并结合算例进行了分析论证；给出了基于地震损失估计概率模型的各类地震保费和费率厘定的方法。对基于两种风险分析方法得到的保险费和费率,考虑免赔额和赔偿限额、再保险和巨灾债券、资金的时间价值和保单数据的反馈几方面的影响,对保费和费率进行合理的调整,其中对免赔额和赔偿限额、资金时间价值的影响做了定量分析,并结合具体算例进行了讨论。(3)对地震再保险和资本市场的风险分担作用进行了分析。对再保险的分类以及对损失分担的情况进行了研究,介绍了再保险的常用定价方法。分析了资本市场替代资金的主要类别及其特点,对资本市场近几年的发展情况进行介绍,并分析了巨灾债券常用的四种定价模型。(4)对构建我国城市建筑的地震保险制度进行探讨。对目前我国依靠政府资助和社会救济进行地震损失补偿方式的局限性进行分析；介绍国际上地震保险开展较为成熟的国家和地区的例子,其中包括日本、新西兰、美国加州、土耳其和我国台湾地区；提出了适合我国的地震保险制度,并分析在此制度中政府部门、保险公司和再保险公司的具体职责。更多还原

【Abstract】 Earthquake disasters not only have a significant influence on urban constructions, but also cause negative impacts on social and economic activities. Furthermore, the influences and impacts are becoming more and more remarkable with the rapid economic development of our country. In the relief and reconstruction of previous earthquake disasters in our country, the compensation funds were mainly provided by the government, which were not so effective and causing heavy burdens to government finance. Thus we should learn from other countries which use insurance to effectively transfer the risk. So pricing earthquake premium and premium rate reasonably, and establishing a rational earthquake insurance system are of great practical significance and can provide sound theoretical support of advancing earthquake insurance in our country. This paper systematically studies the seismic risk and insurance management of urban constructions, and researches done are as follows:(1) Earthquake risk of urban constructions is analyzed. There are two typical ways to analyze earthquake risk of urban constructions, one is traditional analysis method and the other is based on probabilistic models of earthquake loss estimation. An improvement of hazard analysis of traditional way is put forward; operating mechanism and mainly outcomes of several sophisticated probabilistic models of earthquake loss estimation are studied. The loss estimation outcomes can be used as foundations of premium and premium rate pricing.(2) A reasonable way of pricing premium and premium rate is proposed. The insurability and significance of earthquake insurance are discussed; the definition and pricing methods of premiums and the corresponding rates are put forward based on the two ways of earthquake risk analysis, the pricing method based on traditional one is improved with a case study; the pricing method is then adjusted on the basis of effect factors such as deductibles and indemnity limits, reinsurance and catastrophe bonds, time value of capital and feedback data of insurance policies, and quantitative analysis of deductibles and indemnity limits, time value of capital is conducted with a real example.(3) Risk sharing roles of earthquake reinsurance and capital market are analyzed. The category and loss sharing effects of reinsurance are studied, the pricing method of reinsurance is also introduced. The category and characteristics of alternative capitals in capital market are analyzed, and the development of capital market in recent years is introduced, meanwhile four popular pricing models of catastrophe bonds are reviewed as well.(4) The attempt of establishing our country’s earthquake insurance system is made. The limitations of government support and social relief are analyzed; the mature earthquake insurance systems in Japan, New Zealand, California, Turkey and Taiwan are introduced; a suitable earthquake insurance system for our country’s urban constructions is put forward, and the responsibilities of government, insurance companies and reinsurance companies are also analyzed.更多还原