【作者】 梁栋；

【导师】 周颖；

【作者基本信息】 大连理工大学 ， MBA（专业学位）， 2014， 硕士

【摘要】 随着经济全球一体化的深入,市场竞争也日趋激烈,企业随时有面临财务风险的可能,财务预警研究受到了企业和学者越来越多的关注。大连港集团有限公司(正文简称“大连港集团”)是国内首家同时拥有A+H双融资平台的港口类上市公司,在国际宏观经济环境不稳定,国内经济结构转型、内需规模缩小、港口之间竞争加剧的情况下,其财务风险管理不容忽视。有别于其他的财务预警方法,本文采取财务报表分析与模糊综合评价方法相结合的方式来进行企业财务预警研究,从而更全面地评估大连港集团的财务状况。本文共分为四章,第一章为绪论,介绍了本文的研究背景和意义,也简要介绍了国内外相关文献,在此基础上,介绍了本文的研究思路和研究方法。第二章为财务预警理论综述,详细介绍了现有的财务预警方法,并分析各种预警方法的优点与不足,同时阐明了选择模糊综合评价方法的理由。第三章是本文讨论的重点。首先,作者根据财务预警的相关理论,构建大连港集团的财务预警指标体系；然后,从盈利能力、偿债能力、营运能力、发展能力和现金保障能力等5个方面,对大连港五年间的财务报表进行分析,并结合比较其他港口的财务情况,找出其财务上存在的问题；通过专家调查法和模糊综合评价体系,构建财务预警模型；最后,进行模糊综合评价分析,得到评价结果并加以分析。第四章分析了大连港集团在财务和经营上面临的主要问题、潜在风险以及成因,并提出防范风险的建议。本文在对大连港财务报表进行分析的基础上,运用定性与定量相结合的分析方式进行综合分析评价,可以更全面地反映企业财务状况,并找出企业潜在的财务风险,使企业能够采取相应的措施来防范财务危机的发生。更多还原

【Abstract】 With the deepening of economic globalization, market competition is increasingly fierce, enterprises face the possibility of financial risk at any time, so financial early warning research has been paid more and more attention by enterprises and scholars.Dalian Port (PDA) Company Limited is the first domestic port company to list simultaneously in Shanghai and Hong Kong. In the case of unstable international macroeconomic environment, the structural transformation of the domestic economy, downsizing domestic demand and increased competition between ports, its financial risk management can not be ignored.Different from other financial early warning methods, the paper adopts the method of financial statement analysis and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation to combine an approach for studying the enterprise financial early warning, so as to more fully assess the financial position of the Dalian Port.The paper is divided into three chapters. The first chapter is the introduction, which introduces the research background and significance, the related literature at home and abroad, and the research ideas and research methods.The second chapter is the summary of financial early warning theory, which introduces the existing financial warning methods in detail, analyzes the advantages and shortcomings of various kinds of early warning methods, and clarifies the reason to choose the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method.The third chapter is the focus of this article. Firstly, the financial early warning index system of Dalian Port is constructed. Secondly, from profitability, solvency, operating capacity, development capacity and cash security capacity, analysis on the financial statements of Dalian Port in five years is made to find out the existing financial problems. Thirdly, the financial early warning model is built and the evaluation results is got, by the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation analysis.The fourth chapter is to assess the overall financial condition of Dalian Port and point out the main financial and operating problems. Recommendations for risk prevention are also made.In this paper, based on the financial statement analysis, the combination of qualitative and quantitative analysis can more fully reflect the financial situation of Dalian Port, find out the main potential financial risks, and make the enterprise can take the corresponding measures to prevent the financial crisis.更多还原