【作者】 王丽；

【导师】 李雪增；

【作者基本信息】 东北财经大学 ， 劳动经济学， 2015， 硕士

【摘要】 随着在全球范围内人口老龄化问题的日益严重,人们越来越重视对养老保险制度的研究。新增长理论兴起以来,人力资本对经济增长的作用日益凸显,人们不仅仅只看重物质资本的增长,也开始重视人力资本对经济发展所做的贡献。养老保险制度通过征收养老金税或者是对个人账户的积累都在改变着人们面临着的经济行为的约束,影响着代内、代际间的人们对人力资本投资的决策,进而对经济增长产生相应的影响。目前我国的养老保险制度正在由现收现付制向“统账结合”的部分积累制的养老保险制度转变,但在转轨过程中养老保险加大了我国政府的财政负担,造成养老金资金缺口巨大,“空账”问题的存在使一些人开始怀疑我国养老保险制度的改革方向。针对这一问题,本文根据我国的具体情况来研究养老保险制度对人力资本投资、经济增长产生的影响。本文结合对国内外文献的相关研究,从新增长理论的角度入手进行分析,对于探讨养老保险制度是否能通过影响人力资本的投资进而影响经济增长是具有积极意义的。同时也通过进行相应的实证分析,来检验相关理论,这对于帮助国家制定并改善相关政策、推动国家的稳定发展也具有一定的参考作用。本文通过对国内外学者对相关内容研究的回顾,发现许多文献都是建立在世代交叠模型基础上对养老保险制度进行研究,大体上是从养老保险制度与储蓄率、生育子女的数量、家庭对人力资本的投资和政府对人力资本的投资关系等方面进行探讨。本文在Zhang所建立的无限期替代模型的基础上,加入父母是具有部分利他主义的假设条件,深化了个人微观决策的方式,在跨期消费决策的约束条件下,求解出当期一代劳动者的最优决策结果。同时还考虑了中国特殊的人口政策对模型结论的影响,发现在上述条件下,现收现付制的养老保险制度对人力资本投资是产生抑制作用的,但对经济增长所产生的影响并不能够确定。随后本文又根据我国的实际情况,选取了全国31个省区在2006-2012年间的面板数据进一步对现收现付制的养老保险制度与人力资本投资、经济增长的关系进行实证分析,采用计量分析的方法研究我国城镇居民每年的人均教育投入、年人均收入以及所缴纳的养老保险税率等变量之间的关系。研究结果与理论模型推出的结果基本一致,现收现付制的养老保险制度会不利于加大对人力资本的投资,进而就会通过对储蓄率的影响,对经济的增长也产生消极的作用。最后,本文根据前文的理论和实证分析,认为当下我国对养老保险制度的改革方向是正确的,应当实现从现收现付制的养老保险制度的转轨。改革过程中遇到困难和问题是难免的,但不能因此就对这种改革的努力全盘否定,在改革过程中需要注意一些问题,将我国的养老保险制度加以完善,使之适应我国的发展。针对我国的实际情况,本文也从扩大养老保险覆盖面、从制度外筹集资金、提高养老保险的社会统筹层次等方面提出相应的政策建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 With the population aging problem is increasingly serious in the global scope, people pay more and more attention to the research on the endowment insurance system. Since the New growth theory turned up, the role of human capital in economic growth are increasingly prominent, not only people think highly of the value of material capital growth, also began to pay attention to the contribution the human capital made in the economic development. The endowment insurance system is changing the economic behavior of people who facing the constraint by paying tax or the accumulation of personal accounts. It affects people in generation or inter-generational who make the decision on human capital investment, and produces a corresponding impact on economic growth. At present the endowment insurance system in our country is transforming from the PAYG system, the endowment insurance system in the process of transition has increased China’s government financial burden, cause a huge funding gap of pension The existence of "empty account" makes some people began to suspect that the direction of reform of the pension system. Aiming at this problem, this paper studies the endowment insurance system in human capital investment, the impact of economic growth based on China’s specific situation.In this paper, through the review of relevant content of the research of domestic and foreign scholars, we found that many documents are established based on the overlapping generations model in the research on the endowment insurance system, they are generally were discussed from the relationship between the old-age insurance system and the savings rate, the number of children, the family of the human capital investment and government investment in human capital relations. In this paper, based on the surrogate model in indefinitely by Zhang, adding parents is a part of altruism assumptions, deepen the individual microcosmic decision-making mode in constraints inter-temporal consumption decisions, solving the optimal decision result of the current generation of workers. We found in the above conditions, PAYG pension system is generated on the inhibition of the investment of human capital, but the impact on economic growth can not be determined.Then according to the actual situation in our country, the selected panel data of31provinces in the country during2006-2012further empirical analysis on the relationship between PAYG and human capital investment, economic growth. We use quantitative analysis method to study urban residents’ per-capita annual investment in education, the relationship between per-capita income and the tax rate paid by pension and other variables. The research results are basically consistent with the results from the theoretical model introduced, PAYG will not help to increase the investment of human capital, and then through the impact on the savings rate, on economic growth also have a negative effect.Finally, according to the above theoretical and empirical analysis, we think that the current reform direction of our country on the endowment insurance system is correct, we should achieve the goal of the transition from PAYG. In the reform process encountered difficulties and problems are inevitable, but not so to the reform efforts to deny, in the reform process need to pay attention to some problems, China’s endowment insurance system can be perfected, so as to adapt to the development of our country. According to the actual situation of China, this paper also put forward corresponding policy recommendations from the expansion of old-age insurance coverage, to raise funds from outside the system, to improve the overall level of social endowment insurance etc.更多还原