【作者】 张扬；

【导师】 陈太明；

【作者基本信息】 东北财经大学 ， 劳动经济学， 2015， 硕士

【摘要】 我国自1998年住房分配体制改革以来,房地产行业迎来了高速发展的黄金期,与之对应,以住宅商品房为主的房地产价格也迅猛攀升。1998—2012年的15年间,全国商品房平均住宅价格增长近300%。房价的过快增长将给经济的健康发展带来诸多负面影响。从经济健康发展的角度看,房价过快上涨促使房地产行业吸引过多的社会资本而形成对其他生产行业资本的挤占,从而出现房地产泡沫；房地产行业与金融行业的紧密联系性,将可能引发金融风险,进而危及整个宏观经济。从社会和谐发展的角度看,房价过快增长会加大民众的生活负担,进而可能导致社会的不稳定。与房价的高增长相伴随,我国社会养老金制度也在发生着巨变,正由“现收现付制”向“现收现付制”和“完全积累制”的混合形式转变。养老金制度的改革将通过“养老金制度改革—储蓄—投资—产出—居民福利”这样一种传导机制来实现对职工退休生活水平的保障。上述传导机制会不会通过对宏观经济中储蓄和投资的影响进而形成对房地产价格的间接影响呢?即养老金制度改革会不会对房价产生影响,如果会,影响方向和影响程度如何?为此,本文在梳理以往相关文献的基础上,从全新视角解释了房地产价格上涨的原因,分析了中国养老保险制度改革对房地产价格的影响。首先,通过构建理论模型从理论上分析养老金制度改革对房地产价格变动的影响机制；接着,以2001—2012年我国30个省、直辖市和自治区构成的面板数据为样本,分别采用固定效应和系统广义矩估计(SYS-GMM)对养老金制度改革与房地产价格的关系进行了实证分析。最终,得出相关结论并给出相关政策建议。本文的主要内容和结构安排如下：第一章为绪论,主要介绍了本文的研究背景和意义,并对相关研究进行综述；第二章为我国房地产市场的现状,主要对我国房地产的发展现状、特点以及繁荣地理性和非理性等状况进行了分析；第三章为养老金制度改革的理论分析,主要是在分析我国养老金体系现状和制度改革经济效益的基础上,着重用世代交叠模型理论分析了养老金改革对房价的影响机制；第四章为实证研究,这一章是对理论模型的验证,也是本文的重点,主要采用2001-2012年我国省级数据建立动态面板数据模型,分别用固定效应和系统广义矩估计的方法对养老金制度改革与房价的关系进行了系统的计量检验；第五章为本文的结论和政策建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 Since the housing distribution system reformed in1998, the real estate industry has ushered in the golden period of rapid development. Accordingly, the price of commercial housing is rising rapidly. During15years form1998to2012, the national average commodity housing prices rose nearly300%. The excessive growth of housing prices will have negative effect on the healthy development of economic society. From the point of view of the healthy economic development, the increase of housing prices accelerated the real estate industry to absorb more social capital and occupy resources for other manufacturing industry, resulting in the bubble of the real estate; the close connection between the real estate industry and the financial industry will trigger a financial risk to the whole economy. From the point of view of the harmonious society development, the rapid growth of housing prices will increase the burden of people’s lives, even lead to social instability.As the soaring housing prices, the social pension system changed in China. It removed the PAYG system and carried out the system that mixed the PAYG system with full cumulating system. The combined effect of the pension reform achieved improvement of living standards by this mechanism that is pension reform-savings-investment-output-the welfare. Will the transmission mechanism affect saving and investment and indirectly have an impact on the real estate? That is to say, will the pension system change affect housing price?On the basis of previous related literatures, this paper explains the reason of the increase of real estate prices from the perspective of new, analyzes China’s pension system reform’s influence on real estate prices. First it analyzes the pension system reform’s influence mechanism on real estate price and establishes the theoretical model; and then, it uses2001-2012panel data as samples in provincial areas, respectively, it uses the fixed effect and SYS-GMM to test theoretical model. The connection of the pension system and the real estate price is analyzed empirically. Finally it draws the conclusions and gives some policy recommendations. The structure of this paper is organized as follows. Section1describes the background and significance of the research and analyzes of previous research progress. Section2discusses the development status of China’s real estate industry, analyzes characteristics and causes of irrational exuberance. Section3compares two pension system, analyzes economic effects of pension reform, and describes current situation of pension system reform, analyzes the mechanism that the pension system affect housing price by the overlapping generations model. Section4is the core part of the paper, it is the test of the theoretical model. This paper uses2001-2012data to create a dynamic panel model. It uses the fixed effect model and SYS-GMM to further examine the effects of the reform of the pension system in dynamic panel data structure to house prices. Section5draws a conclusion, and gives some recommendations about the problems in the process of the pension reform.更多还原