【作者】 王宇；

【导师】 朱未； 何宏；

【作者基本信息】 长春工程学院 ， 水利工程， 2015， 硕士

【摘要】 卓于水库位于雅鲁藏布江中游的扎囊县境内，扎囊县是西藏山南地区有名的缺水干旱地带，水利基础设施极度落后。鉴于扎塘沟流域是扎囊县重要的粮食产区以及在流域内兴建控制性水利枢纽工程的必要性，提出兴建卓于水库作为该流域灌区的水源枢纽工程的方案。拟建的卓于水库总库容为1036.90×104m3，设计标准的洪水重现期为50年，校核标准的洪水重现期为1000年。水库功能主要是灌溉，灌溉保证率为75%，可控制灌溉面积为40212亩，水库最大放流量2.36m3/s。根据地质地形等因素初步拟定卓于水库三个坝址方案，本课题研究采用目前水利设计院普遍应用的常规技术经济方法对三个坝址方案进行技术经济比较，结果显示三坝址方案都是技术可行且经济合理的。静态经济评价法的评价结果是中坝址方案最经济，动态经济评价法结果是上坝址方案最经济，在重点考虑水库淹没和移民的情况下，采用技术经济法的工程设计结论是上坝址方案最优。在技术经济比较法的基础上，本课题通过充分研究模糊决策理论与方法的应用，深入了解并分析国内外有关水库工程方案决策理论与方法的研究进展，针对卓于水库工程决策中定性目标不能定量分析这一工程实际问题，结合相关规范和方针政策，在文献资料研究，工程调查，专家咨询和理论分析的基础上，采用多目标半结构模糊决策分析方法，建立了卓于水库工程方案比选的模糊决策数学模型，并对模型的可靠度和操作性进行检验调整。按照模糊决策理论应用要求，对各层系统各个目标的重要性和在工程决策的影响程度进行专家咨询，并按照模糊决策理论对调查结果进行一致性检验，确定各目标相对优属度，解出方案最优解为上坝址方案。综合对比分析两种方法，论证了模糊决策理论方法在卓于水库工程方案比选中是可行的，应用模糊决策理论方法将定性目标量化，同定量目标一起进行定量分析，具有综合多种定量和定性因素对各方案的优劣进行评价这一巨大的优越性，为卓于水库工程及其他将要开展水利工程规模决策提供了新的方法。更多还原

【Abstract】 Zhuoyu reservoir is located in the zhanang county on the middle reaches of Yarlungzangbo river, which is a famous drought area in the Tibet shannan area, and where thewater infrastructure is extremely backward. Considering that Zhatanggou basin is thefamous food production areas in zhanang county and it is necessary to constructcontrolling hydro-junction of project in the basin, so I put forward the construction ofthe Zhuoyu reservoir in the basin irrigation district as the scheme of the waterconservancy project.The total capacity of Zhuoyu reservoir is1036.90×104m3, the designed criteria offlood is one time in50years, flood return period of the check standard is1000years.The main function of the reservoir is irrigation, the irrigation assurance rate is75%,the controlled irrigation area is40212mu, the largest reservoir flow is2.36m3/s.According to the geological terrain factors such as initial proposed three damsitesof zhuoyu in reservoir dam site, this research adopts the conventional technical andeconomic methods in general use water conservancy design institute of technical andeconomic comparison of the three dam site schemes, which schemes are feasible andeconomic and reasonable technologies. Static economic evaluation method of dam siteplan in evaluation result is the most economic, the dam site plan on dynamic economicevaluation method of the result is the most economic, the key consideration ofreservoir flood and immigration cases, using the engineering design of technicaleconomic law conclusion was the optimum dam site on the scheme.On the basis of technical and economic comparison, this paper researches fullystudy fuzzy decision theory and method of application, an in-good understanding andanalysis of domestic and foreign relevant decision making theory and method ofreservoir engineering research progress, aiming at qualitative targets in Zhuoyureservoir engineering decisions can’t quantitative analysis of the practical engineeringproblems, combined with relevant standards and guidelines and policies, in theliterature research, engineering survey, expert consultation and on the basis oftheoretical analysis, the multi-objective structural fuzzy decision analysis method,established the Zhuoyu reservoir engineering plan than the selected mathematicalmodel of fuzzy decision, and the test reliability and operability of the model.Inaccordance with requirements of the fuzzy decision theory, the importance of eachtarget of each layer system in project decision-making and the influence degree of theexpert consultation, and according to the fuzzy decision theory to consistency check ofthe results of the survey, to determine the optimal size of each target, the optimalsolution of solutions for dam site is the most superior. Comprehensive analysis of two methods carried out in this paper, the theory offuzzy decision method in Zhuoyu reservoir engineering plan is feasible. The theory offuzzy decision method is applied to quantify the qualitative objectives and make thequantitative analysis combined with those quantitative goals. It can evaluate the meritsof the scheme by means of analyzing kinds of qualitative and quantitative factors. Thehuge advantage of this method provide a new method in the scale decision-making ofwater conservancy project like Zhuoyu and other reservoirs.更多还原