【作者】 王晓琳；

【导师】 刘志强； 王军；

【作者基本信息】 河北工程大学 ， 物流工程， 2013， 硕士

【摘要】 作为现代物流业发展中的新生事物，物流园区是物流业规模化和集约化发展到一定阶段的必然产物，已成为为众多企业提供物流基础设施和公共服务的物流产业集聚区。物流园区具有物流功能集成、物流设施共享和物流用地节约等优势，物流园区的健康发展对于提高企业经济效益和社会物流服务效率，促进区域产业结构调整与转变经济发展方式都具有非常重要的意义。物流园区也因投资额大、回收期长和不确定因素多而使投资者面临较大风险，如果不能科学评价和采取风险规避措施，将给投资者带来很大损失。因此，对物流园区投资风险的研究具有重要理论意义与应用价值。本文在综述国内外物流园区风险相关理论基础上，以XT物流园区为研究对象，运用SWOT方法分析了XT物流园区的发展环境，包括XT物流园区的优势、劣势、面临的机遇和威胁；基于全生命周期风险理论，较系统地分析了XT物流园区的投资决策阶段、规划设计阶段、建设阶段和运营阶段的投资风险影响因素，在此基础上构建了XT物流园区投资风险评价指标体系；运用信息熵与未确知理论，构建了基于信息熵与未确知测度的XT物流园区风险评价模型，并对XT物流园区投资风险进行综合评价；结合XT物流园区实际，根据全生命周期的不同阶段提出了XT物流园区投资风险规避策略。更多还原

【Abstract】 As a new thing in the development of modern logistics industry, logistics parkis an inevitable product that logistics industry in scale and intensive development toa certain stage, and has become the logistics industrial agglomeration area thatprovides logistics infrastructure and public services for many enterprises. Logisticspark has the advantages of logistics function integration, logistics facilities sharedand logistics land saving. The healthy development of logistics park has veryimportant significance to improve the enterprise economic benefit and socialefficiency of logistics services, promote the structure adjustment of regional industryand the transformation of the economic development pattern. Due to the hugeinvestment, long payback period and many uncertain factors, investors have facedgreater risks. If we can’t make scientific evaluation and take right measures to avoidthese risks then there will be lots of loss to the investors. Therefore, the research onthe investment risk of logistics park has important theoretical significance andapplication value.Based on the domestic and international logistics park, this thesis takes XTlogistics park as the research object and uses SWOT analysis method to analyze thedevelopment environment of XT logistics park, including its strengths, weaknesses,opportunities and threats; based on the theory of whole life cycle risk, this thesissystematically analyzes the investment risk factors that XT logistics park has facedin investment decision-making stage, planning and design stage, construction stageand operation stage, and on the basis of these, the thesis builds XT logistics parkinvestment risk evaluation index system; using information entropy andunascertained theory to construct XT logistics park risk evaluation model based oninformation entropy and unascertained measure, and making comprehensiveevaluation on XT logistics park investment risk; combing the reality of XT logisticspark and according to the different stages of whole life cycle, this thesis puts forwardinvestment risk avoidance strategies of logistics park.更多还原