【作者】 王国忠；

【导师】 强茂山； 谭继文；

【作者基本信息】 清华大学 ， 水利工程（专业学位）， 2014， 硕士

【摘要】 太阳能是未来的主导能源，太阳能发电随着技术的迅速进步，成本与常规发电方式的差距在不断缩小。在气候和环境问题日益凸显的将来，太阳能发电取代化石能源发电，成为最主要的电力供应方式已经成为必然的趋势。在资源和环境对经济社会发展的约束程度更高的我国，大力发展太阳能发电是电力发展战略的必然选择。将来，我国发电企业太阳能发电在全国所占的市场份额，将会逐步成为衡量其核心竞争力，影响其企业地位的重要因素。华能集团是全国最大的发电企业，但是太阳能发电在其自身电力产业中所占的比重小，在全国所占的比例更小，所以需要加快太阳能发电的发展。西藏的太阳能发电资源丰富，有开发的自然条件和潜在的市场环境，所以研究华能集团在西藏的太阳能发电开发战略有助于华能集团制定合理的太阳能发电发展战略。本研究运用增长率—市场占有率矩阵、PEST分析法、SWOT分析法、并借鉴博弈论和实物期权的思维方式，分析了太阳能发电在华能电力产业中的战略定位，在西藏开发太阳能发电资源的宏观环境以及竞争的优势、劣势、外部存在机会和威胁；得出华能需要迅速发展太阳能发电，在西藏开发太阳能发电资源是合理和可行的选择，面对已经展开的西藏太阳能发电资源开发竞争局面，华能合理的战略选择是以规模送出为战略目标，目前的实施方案应以等待时机，青藏直流联网工程开始送出太阳能发电时，迅速扩大前期工作规模为最优的结论。并针对分析过程中发现的问题，提出了华能集团可采取侧重发展太阳能热发电，集中规划，分期开发以降低前期工作投入，增强竞争力的具体建议。本研究的主要特色在于运用战略工具进行定性分析基础上，运用博弈论和实物期权的方法，对方案进行了定量分析的尝试。在分析各方案的市场份额中，考虑了华能集团和其他竞争对手相互影响的情形，计算收益经济值时考虑了不同的收益水平。对于企业在西藏进行太阳能发电资源的开发竞争战略研究，提供了一种新的思考方法。更多还原

【Abstract】 Solar energy is the dominant energy in the future. With the rapid development oftechnology, the cost differences between solar power generation and traditional powergeneration methods are diminishing. In the future, the problem of climate andenvironment will draw more attention. It has become an inevitable trend that solarpower generation will replace fossil energy and become the main power supply method.In China, the economic society development will be restricted deeply by the recoursesand environment. The rapid development of solar power generation is an inevitablechoice for power development strategy. In the future, the market shares of solar powergeneration will gradually become the important factor for evaluating the corecompetitiveness and affecting the status of power generation companies in China.China Huaneng Group is the largest power generation company in China. But theproportion of solar power generation in its power industry is small and the proportion ismuch smaller among the whole country, so the development of solar power generationneeds to be accelerated. There are rich resources, natural development conditions andpotential market environment for solar power generation in Tibet. Therefore, theresearch of solar power generation strategy in Tibet by China Huaneng will facilitateHuaneng formulate the reasonable solar power generation strategy.Growth rate-market share matrix, PEST analysis, SWOT analysis and the thinkingmode of game theory and real options are adopted in this study to investigate strategicpositioning of solar power generation in Huaneng power industry. Meanwhile, themacro-environment of exploiting solar power generation resources in Tibet, theadvantages and disadvantages of competitiveness and the external opportunities andthreats are studied. Results show that the development of solar power generation needsto be accelerated in Huaneng and exploiting solar power resources in Tibet is areasonable and viable option. Facing the existing competitive landscape of exploitingsolar resources in Tibet, the reasonable strategy target for Huaneng is scale out and thecurrent implementation plan is watching its time. When the project of direct currentnetworking in Qinghai-Tibet begins to send out solar power, expanding the scale of theprevious work rapidly is the optimal option. In view of the problems during the analysis, this paper proposes that Huneng should focus on the development of solar thermalpower generation, develop centralized planning and phased development to decreaseprevious job involvement and sharpen its edge.Besides qualitative analysis with strategic tools, the quantitative attempt using themethod of game theory and real options in the evaluation of projects is the maininnovation in this study. To analyze the market shares of different projects, the situationof mutual effects between Huaneng and its competitors is considered and differentincome levels are included when calculating the value of economic earnings. A newthinking method is provided for analyzing the competitive strategy of developing solarpower generation resources in Tibet.更多还原