【作者】 杨帆；

【导师】 郭颖；

【作者基本信息】 北京理工大学 ， 管理科学与工程， 2015， 硕士

【摘要】 全球已经进入快速发展的知识经济时代，技术发展和知识更新速度明显加快，技术开发周期变短，技术已经成为推进社会发展的重要因素，成为国家、产业和企业之间竞争的核心要素。中国加入世界经济贸易组织之后，国家经济快速发展，综合国力稳步上升，但由于我国的历史等方面的原因，我国目前整体技术水平还比较低，拥有的核心技术少，对国外技术依赖度较高，自主创新能力很低。近年来，以专利为名的技术壁垒、技术诉讼等已严重制约了我国许多产业和企业的发展。针对我国目前技术预警水平，本文在调研预警及技术预警相关研究情况后，运用文献计量学的方法对研究现状进行了分析。基于对现状的分析，本文试图建立切实可行的技术预警模型。专利是技术的产权化，已经成为各公司之间一种有力的技术竞争手段。通过专利数据能够很好的反应整个国家、某个行业或企业的技术发展态势。因此，本文以专利数据为主要数据来源，以企业为研究对象，进行技术预警，对可能遇到的技术纠纷、技术壁垒等提出警示，让企业能及早发现问题并有所准备，从而尽可能避免技术纠纷，或降低小事件发生的突然性和意外性，缩短反应时间；通过对专利数据的监测和分析，以期为我国技术研发和专利规避等提供决策参考。本文主要围绕中国企业技术预警展开研究，研究主要包括三个层面：概念界定、方法研究及案例分析。①概念界定层面，主要介绍了技术及预警的相关概念，对比分析了技术预警、技术预测、专利预警和本文提出的基于专利数据的技术预警；②方法研究层面，主要介绍了本文建立的基于专利数据的技术预警指标体系及预警模型，主要包括技术预警指标体系的建立、指标量化、指标体系的评价等；③案例分析层面，主要选取了节能减排领域重点企业对本文建立的基于专利数据的技术预警模型进行实证研究。本文通过对于技术预警的三个层面的研究，以期为我国的企业和各行业应对技术纠纷、专利纠纷等提供理论和方法支持。更多还原

【Abstract】 In a Knowledge-Based Economy, the speed of technology development andknowledge update obviously paces up, and the life-circle period of the technologydevelopment becomes shorter and shorter. Technology has been the decisive factor toaccelerate the development of productivity and the progress of human society and the coreelements of competition among countries, industries and enterprises. Now it decides thecomprehensive competitiveness of a country/region. Since China’s accession to the WTO,economic develops fast. However, due to various reasons such as history, the currentoverall level of science and technology is relatively low, with less core technology, higherforeign technology dependence and lower independent innovation ability. In recent years,the technology barriers and technical actions have seriously restricted the development ofmany industries and enterprises in our country.According to the level of early-warning in our country, this paper research on relatedconditions of early-warning and technology early-warning, using the method of literaturemetrology. Based on the analysis of the situation, this paper tries to establish the feasibletechnology early warning model. Patent is the property of technology and it become apowerful technical means of competition between companies. The patent data is a verygood reaction of development trend throughout the country, an industry, or enterprisetechnology. Therefore, this paper study on technology early-warning based on the patentdata as the main data source, with enterprises as the research object, to warn the technicalbarriers and technical disputes, to help enterprises find the problem as early as possible andbe prepared, so as to avoid technical dispute events, or reduce the sudden and unexpectedsmall events, shorten the reaction time; analysis of patent intelligence detection can providedecision-making reference for r&d and patent hedging.This paper mainly revolves around China enterprise technology early-warningresearch, and the research mainly includes three aspects: definition, methods research andcase analysis.The first aspect is definition. It mainly introduces the concepts of technologyand early-warning, and analyze the technology early-warning, technology forecasting,patent early-warning and then this paper study on technology early-warning based on thepatent data; The second aspect is methods research.It mainly introduced the technologyearly-warning index system based on the patent data and technology early-warning model based on the patent data.It mainly includes the technology early-warning index system,index quantification, the evaluation of index system, etc.; The third aspect is case analysis.Itselected the key enterprises in the field of energy saving and emission reduction forempirical research on technology early-warning model based on patent data.According to the study of the three levels of the technology early warning, this paperhope to provide theory support to cope with a growing number of technical disputes andpatent disputes among companies, industry of our country.更多还原