【作者】 张华；

【导师】 卓建伟；

【作者基本信息】 上海交通大学 ， 产业经济学， 2014， 硕士

【摘要】 农业是我国国民经济的基础。为了支持农业发展，我国政府已经制定了一系列强农惠农政策，这些政策的持续扶持对农业发展发挥着重要的作用。与此同时，当前对农业产业的扶持，已经逐渐由单一依靠政府财政扶持逐渐过渡到加强市场化的支持，即通过资本市场来支持农业产业的持续发展。农业类上市公司多是农业的龙头企业，更是惠农政策的受益者。经过政府多年的政策扶持和推动，农业的发展到底取得了多大成效，政府的政策效果如何量化，政府应当从哪些方面制定相关政策以进一步促进农业发展成为广泛关注的话题。本文的研究聚焦农业行业，旨在研究我国农业政策的发布对农业类上市公司股价的影响，进一步探讨政策效应的有无、大小及影响形式。首先，文章对资本市场与农业产业发展的现状进行梳理，考察实践中资本市场对农业产业的服务是否有效，评价农业政策对农业的支持是否取得预期的效果。然后，分别通过波动点鉴别方法和事件研究方法来识别和检验农业上市企业股价波动的政策效应。我国2004-2013年连续十个中央“一号文件”政策事件的检验结果表明：“一号文件”显著影响了农业上市公司的股价收益，政策效应明显。短期，在政策事件的刺激下，农业类上市公司股价波动较大，获得超额收益；长期，经过连续几年的政策扶持，农业类上市公司的估值水平已经稳定维持在高位。但由于政策利好预期的常态化和受股市表现的影响，政策效应趋于弱化和短暂，出现一定程度的“政策疲劳”。在此基础上，分别从纵向、横向、综合研究政策效应的动态变化、静态差异、类属区别，比较研究识别出了政策效应的市场差异、区域差异、规模差异、主题差异。其次，为识别累积超额收益率的影响因素，文章进一步梳理理论文献并据此建立多因素模型，从市场、行业、公司特征因素三个层面寻找政策效应的影响因素。此外，本文还从对企业投资、企业价值的影响这两个方面进一步度量政策效应的大小。最后，根据研究的结论，对政府部门、农业类上市公司以及农业投资者分别提出了相关对策与建议。建议政府部门加强资本市场与现代农业的对接，坚持农业政策持续性和灵活性的结合；建议农业类上市公司有效利用政策的“远期利好”，不断提升公司质量；建议农业投资者加快形成理性的投资理念，认真制定稳健的投资策略。更多还原

【Abstract】 Agriculture industry is the foundation of our national economy. TheChinese government has promulgated a series of polices to support thedevelopment of agricultural industry, which play an important role in theprocess of its advancement. Besides, the supporting method is changing onthe way, from just depending on financial support from government tomarketization support, that is to say, agricultural development attachesmore importance to the support from capital market. Thus, as the excellentperformer, the agricultural listed companies benefit a lot from the policysupport. Through years of subsidies and kinds of support in agriculturalindustry, what breakthrough the agricultural development of China hasachieved, how to assess the policy effect, what aspect should be taken intoconsideration in the policy-making process to promote the industry furtherdevelopment, has achieved wide concern. Based on agricultural industry,this paper tries to examine the policy effects to see whether they meet ourexpectations.At the beginning, this paper reviews the current status of the capitalmarket and agricultural industry to check whether capital market andagricultural policy are fully exerting the support role.Then, we make a practical analysis on the link between stock priceand agricultural policies by introducing methods of identifying ticks andevent study. Research results show that policy effects are obvious butbecome weakened and more short-term gradually due to the routinizationof favorable policy expectations and impact of equity market performance，resulting in “Policy fatigue” to a certain degree. The comparisonresearches also examine the differences of policy effect in stock market, company region, scale and the theme of policy.Moreover, we try to explain the cumulative abnormal returns, whichresult from the policy issue. Based on theoretical studies, we establish amulti-factor model to examine the influencing factors from theperspectives of macro market, industry and firm. We also describe theimpact of both market value and investment demand brought to theagricultural companies by the issue of policy, with the target of conductingquantitative analysis of policy effect.In the end of the paper, according to research findings, policyrecommendations are put forward from the perspectives of government,agricultural listed companies and investors.更多还原