【作者】 张琪；

【导师】 丁浩；

【作者基本信息】 中国石油大学（华东） ， 管理科学与工程， 2013， 硕士

【摘要】 近年来，我国多数主力油田逐渐步入中后期，勘探开发难度日益增大，仅仅依靠国内石油工程早已无法满足我国经济发展的资源需求。海外石油的重要性越来越突出，但在陌生的国度涉足石油行业必将面临很大风险，尤其各种突发事件的频繁发生常常给我国石油企业投资承揽的石油工程项目带来人力和财力的巨额损失。石油工程项目的施工运行是一个投资大、周期长、技术工艺复杂、危险性较高的系统工程，而作为工程项目的重要属性之一，鲁棒性决定了其能否稳定运行。为确保石油工程建设项目的实施有备无患，需要运用科学的方法对投资项目鲁棒性进行评估和分析，以为项目组的决策提供科学依据。出于上述宗旨，我们通过以下方案对此进行研究和探讨：（1）前期准备。这需要从理论准备和事实准备两方面入手。第一是通过大量收集和查阅相关文献资料，针对工程项目管理理论、鲁棒控制理论和突变理论，从研究现状、发展历程、基本概念和原理等方面进行系统梳理，为后续研究做好理论铺垫。第二是对海外石油工程项目鲁棒控制现状进行分析，从类型学角度划分其内部突发事件，作为后文评价指标的选取基础。同时，识别出海外石油工程项目鲁棒控制的影响因素，查找并分析其当前存在的问题，以找准研究出发点和落脚点。（2）理论研究。这部分包括海外石油工程项目鲁棒性评价体系的设计和鲁棒控制突变模型的构建两方面。一是为对海外石油工程鲁棒控制现状做定量化评价，我们通过确定评价函数和选取评价指标来设计海外石油工程项目鲁棒性评价体系，并详细阐述该体系的运行步骤。二是在定性分析和定量评价海外石油工程项目鲁棒控制现状的基础上，我们以突变理论为研究工具，分析出控制变量和状态变量，以此结合海外石油工程项目特点对尖点突变模型进行改造，构建出海外石油工程项目鲁棒控制突变模型，并对该模型的鲁棒控制分析模式进行阐述。（3）案例分析。以某海外石油工程项目为例，运用前述评价体系和突变模型对其分别进行鲁棒性评价和演绎分析，以为本文方案的实际应用提供范例。（4）建议与结论。根据研究内容对海外石油工程项目鲁棒控制提供概括性对策和建议，并总结出本文的研究结论。更多还原

【Abstract】 In recent years, most major oilfield entered middle and later periods gradually inour country. Exploration and development are more and more difficult. It is unable tomeet the resource demand of economic development just relying on domesticpetroleum engineering. The importance of overseas oil is increasingly prominent. Inunknown country, investing ourselves in oil industry undoubtedly face a greater risk.Especially, various emergencies happened frequently brings huge losses of human andfinancial resources to petroleum engineering projects, which are invested by ourpetroleum enterprise. The construction and operation in petroleum engineeringprojects are a large investment, long cycle, complex technology, high risk of systemsengineering. As one of the important attributes of the projects, robustness determinesits stable operation or not. In order to ensure the implementation of petroleumengineering construction, we should assess and analyze the robustness of investmentproject using a scientific method, providing the scie ntific basis for the team’sdecisions. For the purpose, we will study and discuss as followed:（1）Early-stage preparations. Firstly, we should collect and review relatedliterature. According to project management theory, the robust control theory andcatastrophe theory, we systematically summarize the research status, developmenthistory, basic conception and principle theory and principle foreshadowing for thefollow-up study. Secondly, we analyze current situation of overseas oil project robustcontrol, divide the internal emergency from the perspective of typology as the base forlater evaluation index selection. At the same time, identify the factors affecting therobustness of overseas oil projects, search and analyze the current existing problemsas to get the research starting point and the foothold.（2）Theoretical research. In one hand，in order to conduct quantitative evaluation for oversea oil engineering robust control status, we design robustnessevaluation system of overseas oil projects by determining the evaluation function andthe selection of evaluation indexes. And we details of the system operation steps. Inthe other hand, on the base of qualitative analysis and quantitative evaluation foroversea oil engineering robust control status, we will get the control variables andstate variables by using catastrophe theory. Combined with overseas oil projectcharacteristics, we will modify the cusp catastrophic model, and build robust controlmodel of the mutation for overseas oil projects. Explain robust control analysispatterns of the model.（3）Case analysis. Taking some oversea oil engineering as an example, we usethe evaluation system and mutation model respectively to its robustness evaluationand deductive analysis, providing examples in practical application.（4）Recommendations and conclusion. In the light of research contents, weoffer general countermeasure and suggestion to robust control of overseas oil projects,and summarizes the research conclusion of this article.更多还原