【作者】 李娟；

【导师】 张亚明； 王振法；

【作者基本信息】 燕山大学 ， 物流工程， 2014， 硕士

【摘要】 物流业是国民经济的基础性产业，是国家发展水平和综合实力的重要标志之一。随着经济全球化和区域一体化的不断加速以及IT技术的进步，物流作为“第三利润来源”的重要性越来越突出。本文的研究旨在深刻揭示河北省区域经济与物流发展之间的内在关联，准确预测河北省区域物流需求，为相关企事业单位物流体系建设和政府部门区域物流发展规划提供决策依据。论文突破了仅依靠历史物流数据进行预测的局限，克服了以线性模型进行物流需求预测的不足，提出了针对性的政策建议，因而具有重要的理论意义和实践应用价值。首先，综述了国内外在物流需求方面的研究成果并指出当前研究中存在的不足，同时系统阐述了区域物流预测相关基础理论，为论文的研究奠定了理论基础。其次，全面分析河北省经济和物流发展现状，以Logistic增长模型为基础，计算河北省经济与物流发展之间的边际效应和弹性系数，有力揭示其相互促进的相关关系。再次，从区域经济与物流关联性角度，分析物流需求预测的影响因素并建立河北省物流需求预测指标体系，综合运用GM(1,1)模型和支持向量回归机方法构建河北省物流需求预测模型。最后，基于1990-2012年的数据，预测河北省物流需求，并根据预测结果和区域物流发展现状，提出针对性的政策建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 The logistics industry is the basic industry of the national economy, and it is animportant symbol of national development level and comprehensive strength. With theaccelerating of economic globalization, regional integration, and the progress of ITtechnology, the logistics, which is called ‘the third profit source’, becomes more andmore important. This paper predicts the regional logistics demand in Hebei through clearintrinsic connection between the economic and logistics development, also provides thefoundation of logistics system construction for enterprises and the regional logisticsplanning for government departments. This paper has important theoretical significanceand practical application value, as it not only breaks through the limitation of predictionwith just the history of logistics data but also overcomes the shortcomings of logisticsdemand forecast to linear model with its own specific policy recommendations.Firstly, it not only shows the research and existing problems both in China andabroad in the view of logistics demand, but also introduces concepts on regional logisticsdemand. This is the theoretical basis for the following research theory.Secondly, it is based on Logistic model to analysis of the relationship between thelogistics development and economic growth in Hebei province through marginal effectand elasticity coefficient.Thirdly, it takes from the point of the relationship between the logistics developmentand economic growth to analyze the influence factors of logistics demand forecasting andestablishing the demand forecast index system. On this basis, support vector regressionand GM(1,1) model for logistics demanding forecast will be used in Hebei.Finally, forecasting logistics demand in Hebei province is based on data from1990-2012. According to the forecast results and the local economic development, thepaper put forward the corresponding policy recommendations.更多还原