【作者】 王婷；

【导师】 吴超；

【作者基本信息】 中南大学 ， 矿业工程， 2014， 硕士

【摘要】 事故统计分析是安全科学的一个重要研究内容,部分安全科学规律都是通过安全统计研究得到的结论,随着事故类型复杂化、数量剧增化、影响严重化,越来越多的安全学者运用统计的相关理论与方法来解决安全系统内的各种安全问题。本文依据现有的安全统计相关研究,从安全科学的角度来尝试建立安全统计学,这对完善安全学科体系具有重要作用。本论文通过查阅国内外相关文献,在对安全统计的运用现状与问题存在研究的基础上,提出了安全统计学的定义与内涵、安全统计的方法学与方法的具体应用、安全统计学的统计指标体系研究等理论研究；选取影响火灾情况的5个指标,对全国火灾情况聚类分析、抽样分析和多元线性回归分析,用多元线性回归预测的方法对2011年全国各地火灾直接经济损失情况进行预测。本论文的主要研究内容与研究成果如下：(1)分析目前安全科学进行安全性分析的方法类型、学科体系、统计学运用于安全科学的发展历程、安全统计研究中存在的问题,论述了构建安全统计学的意义。(2)定义安全统计学是一门结合安全科学、系统科学、统计学的综合性应用学科,研究对象是安全现象的数量表现与数量关系；从统计研究的侧重点、安全系统统计范围、典型行业安全统计、具体统计对象和统计指标等方面来构建安全统计学的分支体系；从行业安全统计学、伤亡事故统计学、自然灾害统计学、职业健康安全统计学、安全经济统计学和安全社会统计学的分支学科的实践研究,(3)安全统计方法学是一门结合安全科学方法学和统计方法学的综合性方法论学科,主要研究内容是运用到安全科学中的统计方法,分别是安全统计分析方法、安全统计预测方法、安全统计决策方法。(4)安全统计分析方法是研究运用于安全系统的统计分析方法的属性；安全统计学的预测方法是研究能预测安全系统可能出现的安全现象的统计预测方法的属性；安全统计学的决策方法是研究能够抉择出更利于安全系统发展的统计决策方法的属性。(5)安全统计指标体系可分为安全统计静态指标体系与安全统计动态指标体系。安全统计学静态指标有绝对指标(总量指标)和相对指标两类：绝对指标是反映安全现象总规模,总水平或总水平量,及安全生产系统中各种统计对象的发展规模和水平的指标；相对指标是用以表明安全现象的相对水平或工作质量的统计指标。安全统计动态指标又指伤亡事故统计指标。根据安全统计学的学科分类,安全特征统计指标体系可分为行业安全统计、自然灾害统计、职业健康统计、安全经济统计与社会安全统计。(6)搜集2010年全国31个地区火灾情况统计数据,根据5个变量进行聚类分析,将所有地区分为3类,从3类中抽取相应数量的地区,进行抽样分析,以分析计算结果来推断全国火灾的整体情况；根据2007～2010年全国火灾的统计数据,进行多元线性回归分析,并利用多元线性回归预测对2011年的全国火灾情况进行预测,计算预测误差与误差率来评定预测效果。更多还原

【Abstract】 Accident statistical analysis is an important research in safety science, and some rules of safety science came from safety statistical research. With the rapid development of safety science in China, a growing number of serious consequence appear in the production and living, such as the types of accident became more complex, the number of accidents had a greater increase, the effect of accidents is more seriours. In recent years, a large number of safety researchers used many statistical methods to deal with safety issues in the safety system. Based on the existing related reseaches of safety statistics, and from the view of safety science, this paper tried to establish the safety statistics from the view of safety science. It would play an important role in improving the safety discipline system.Based on the collection and access to domestic and foreign literature, and the study of the present research and the existing problems in the safety statistics, the statistical definition of safety was put forward and the analysis of its meaning was deduced, such as the study of safety statistical methodology, application of safety statistics, and safety statistical index system. Then put forward an example to test the result of statistical methods used to solve the safety issue, and these methods including cluster analysis, sampling analysis, multiple linear regression analysis, and multiple linear regression prediction.The main research and conclusions in this paper are as follows:(1) It detailed analysis the types of safety analysis’s methods and the discipline system in safety science, and the development course of statistical methods used to safety system. It also pointed out the problems of safety statistical research, discussed the importance of establishing the major of safety statistics.(2)It defined safety statistics is a comprehensive application subject, which contained safety science, system science and statistics. The research object is the number and the relations of safety phenomenon. From the focus of statistical research, the statistical range of safety systems, the typical industry safety statistics, specific statistics objects and statistical indicators, these branches of safety statistics were built. Then some typical practice researches on the branches of industry safety statistics, casualty statistics, natural disasters statistics, occupational health and safety statistics, safety and economic statistics and social safety statistics were reviewed.(3)It defined safety statistical methodology is a comprehensive methodology subject, which contained safety science methodology and statistical methodology. The main contents of this subject are these statistical methods which used to the safety science research, such as safety statistical analyse methods, safety statistical predict methods and safety statistical decision methods.(4)It detailed analysis the application of three methods. The safety statistical analyse methods studied the propreties of these analysis methods, the safety statistical predict methods studied the propreties of these predict methods, and the safety statistical decision methods,studied the propreties of thes decision-making methods, which were applied to the safety system.(5)Safety statistical index system was an important element of this paper, and contained static index system and dynamic index system. The static index included absolute index and relative index, the absolute index was also named aggregate indicators, it reflected the total dimensions, the total level and the total amout of safe phenomena. The relative index was used to reflect the relative level or quality of safe phenomena. The dynamic index was used to analyse the casualties, therefore was also known as causalty statistical index.Accordint to the classification of safety statistical discipline, the statistical index system of safety feature contained industry safety statistical index, casualty statistical index, natural disasters statistical index, occupational health and safety statistical index, safety and economic statistical index and social safety statistical index.(6)To demonstate how to use these method to safety research, there put an example about the case of fire in2010in China. Based on5indexs, collected the stistical datas from31regions’fire situation, all regions would be divided into3categories through cluster analysis, then sampled and analysed regions from3categories, it could deduce the whole situation of fire through the result of sampling analysis. It used the mulitiple linear regression method to analyse the statiatical datas of fire from2007to2010, and forecasted the nationwide fire situation in2011by multiple linear regression predict method, to evaluate the result by calculated the forecase error and error rate.更多还原